Temporarily or for good and all? Experts discuss the situation with the departure of Mishustin
Many analysts tend to see a big political game behind the temporary disability of the Prime Minister.
As you know, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced that he had contracted a coronavirus. In response to this message, Putin issued a decree on the appointment of acting Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, which gives him the authority to sign decisions and orders of the Government, make personnel decisions and participate in working order in meetings of the Security Council. In addition, the decree provides a legal procedure for the transfer of powers by virtue of Article 92 of the Constitution. The decree itself does not cancel the status of Mishustin and does not require confirmation of his appointment as head of government.
This unusual situation for modern Russia is actively commented by experts. For example, analyst Andrei Nalgin found several oddities in what is happening in the upper echelons of Russian power:
“The canvas of events is already known to everyone. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin suddenly received a positive test for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which he immediately reported to the head of state and hastily departed for medical attention in an unknown hospital. “This can happen to everyone,” only Vladimir Putin said in response, who now has a lot of food for painful thought.
No joke! The insidious virus entered the body of a second person in the state, despite all the restrictions, regimes, protection and doctors. Much closer to the first ...
So how could this happen?
On the one hand, it is clear that the prime minister - like the president, by the way - cannot completely isolate himself from the world and the country. Assistants, security guards, secretaries, techies, housekeepers, spouses come to him - not to mention the need for face-to-face meetings with individual subordinates : not everything can be entrusted to the videoconferencing system, but face to face it will be more reliable. But on the other hand, all contactees are regularly and thoroughly checked, disinfection measures are applied, air is filtered, water is boiled, products are monitored - the system has been debugged for a long time. And then she gave a clear glitch.
But this is not the first oddity with CoVID-19 in high circles.
Let's start with the report . So Mikhail Mishustin informs Vladimir Putin that the tests for coronavirus gave a positive result and in this regard, in accordance with the requirements of the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, he must observe self-isolation . But after all, according to all regulatory documents, a person with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 should not observe self-isolation , but quarantine two weeks. What is signed by the decision of the Chief Sanitary Inspector. And this is not a recommendation, but a regulatory requirement.
The rhetorical question is whether a citizen of the Russian Federation signed Mishustin M.V. appropriate paper . But the fact that “Mikhail Vladimirovich will be in one of the medical institutions under the supervision of doctors,” as the Prime Minister’s spokesman Boris Belyakov said, is also out of the ordinary. Since the hospitalization of patients with diagnosed CoVID-19, according to relevant documents of the Ministry of Health, is carried out exclusively for medical reasons .
That is, in this entire story several regulations at once turned out to be grossly violated. Why all of a sudden? Is it not because the script for this drama was written by amateurs in a hurry, and its meaning in reality is different?
And here is the third oddity.
Vladimir Putin immediately signed a decree imposing the duties of the prime minister on Andrei Belousov, the first deputy head of government. With reference to Art. 8 of the Cabinet Law. But the whole point is that it applies to any cases of temporary absence of the Prime Minister , for example, due to illness or another reason. And then his duties are performed by one of the deputies in accordance with the written distribution of responsibilities . That does not require any presidential decree.
The intervention of the head of state is necessary only if it is impossible for the chairman of the government to fulfill his powers (Article 7 of the same law). But here already there is a dismissal with all that it implies - notification of both houses of parliament, the resignation of all ministers, personnel leapfrog, etc. Why in the current situation there are absolutely no legal reasons: neither quarantine, nor self-isolation , nor even illness — there is no reason for the resignation of the head of the cabinet.
Finally, if for some good reason it was decided to strengthen the mandate of Andrei Belousov to lead the ministers, then this was done completely through a stump deck. Since Art. 8 of the law speaks exclusively about the temporary absence of the Prime Minister, then the appointment of the acting or acting must be accompanied by an indication of the time frame for such execution. Either in the form of a specific deadline, or by sending to some future event (for example, until recovery ). But the signed decree does not contain any conditions, which is also strange.
So the question is - why was it necessary once again to invent a legal crackdown , instead of clear and understandable legal procedures? Lawyers transferred to the State Legal Administration of the AP of the RF?
In general, all these oddities give reason to believe that some kind of performance with far-reaching goals and consequences was played before the public. But why was it needed?
There are at least three versions here - of which two are conspiracy theological and one rational.
First , Mikhail Mishustin failed the test not only for coronavirus , but also for the right to become a successor . Faced with a triple crisis in the form of a collapse in oil prices, the CoVID-19 epidemic and economic collapse due to antivirus measures, it simply got lost . Then, he had to demonstrate competence and determination in every possible way. However, in justification, it can be said that they appointed him to save and control funds for national projects, and life forces one to trust and spend , which requires completely different qualities.
Secondly , in the current situation, the group of influence that is behind Mikhail Mishustin hardware lost to the competitors behind Andrei Belousov. And she was forced to relinquish the post of prime minister under a new alignment.
Both of these versions, possibly even complementing each other, are united by the very common sense that right now it is too long, expensive and troublesome to change the prime minister according to the official procedure, because time does not wait. So I had to improvise .
But there is a third , unfortunately. The most rational explanation of all the oddities is based on the “Hanlon razor”, which forces in any situation to give preference to ordinary stupidity over cunning intent until the contrary is proved. That is, all the inconsistencies, oddities, “white threads” indicated above, and so on. - a direct result of the rapid degradation of the managerial vertical. First of all, intellectually. Which is not at all surprising for 20 years of negative selection of elites .
But then, it turns out, this infection is much worse than the CoVID-19 epidemic for Russia? ”
Journalist Pavel Pryanikov also does not really believe in the official version of what is happening:
“After two hours, everyone is really bursting with rumors about the situation with Mishustin. The nezar with reference to Medusa concludes that the prime minister will probably not return to his chair. Dear journalists like Maxim Shevchenko repost different versions, among which the version of the “castling” again prevails.
I watched a live video in which Mishustin reports his illness to the president - it looks really strange, as if it were not a very convincing play. Departure at the very beginning of the long holidays of the prime minister, who, in theory, had to observe all safety precautions and take tests every day, looks extremely suspicious.
Naturally, in life everything happens simply and without conspiracies and Mishustin could really catch the infection as happened with the British prime minister. But Johnson then left his post only when he really fell ill - on March 27 he passed a positive test, got to the hospital on April 5, and only then his duties were temporarily transferred to Dominica Raab (on April 26, Johnson again took the helm).
And then a healthy-looking politician takes and leaves, and even at the moment when he has two important tasks set a) on the eve of preparing a package of measures to promote the population and business b) preparing a plan for quarantining.
It is not surprising that such a "sick leave" is more reminiscent of a resignation in the style of "non-working days", which are actually quarantine, gave room for conspiracy theology in the spirit of whether the government is preparing unpopular measures for which Mishustin does not want to be involved. Or even worse: Mishustin decided to replace with a more effective "crisis manager."
All this, I repeat, rumors and conjectures - fortune-telling on coffee grounds characteristic of domestic political science. One thing is for sure - such people do not leave without a serious reason. So, we are preparing for the first decade of May. My instinct tells us that there will be many more events on these holidays - not necessarily festive ... "
Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov explains what to expect from acting Prime Minister Belousov ::
“Belousov initially played a more important role in Mishustin’s office than the prime minister himself. One of the most important tasks facing the "Mishustin’s cabinet" is to ensure the transfer of large assets from the hands of the "oligarchs" still remaining in the country into the hands of representatives of the so-called. "State business" (inner circle). All this is due to the need for further and final nationalization of the country's economy, in the difficult foreign political situation in which Russia is located - it is not without reason that the “statesman” Belousov was appointed the first deputy prime minister in the “Mishustin’s cabinet”. So now the remnants of the oligarchy will have to further strengthen their contribution to the cause of "economic recovery". As you know, not so long ago, Belousov, while still a presidential aide, put forward the idea of "withdrawing" part of their financial savings from the "oligarchs" to invest them in the economy, and above all, in the development of industry.
Back in January, Putin seriously decided to invigorate the economy, replacing some of the less energetic and aged “caretakers” behind it, with more energetic and young, as if tired of corruption, “tops”. Therefore, the formation of the “Mishustin’s cabinet,” political, rather than technical, meant “a fundamental change in the nature of the current political regime in Russia. Despite the fact that “Mishustin’s cabinet”, this is actually the next Putin’s Government, no matter who enters it. All these people are lobbyists and lobbying objects of other people surrounded by Putin.
Therefore, both Mishustin’s disease and the arrival of Belousov, little will change strategically. The course was taken back in January, it is possible that the situation with the crisis and falling oil prices accelerated plans for the transition to a new type of economy (the author of which was Glazyev-Belousov). Well, except that the rotation of some ministers, nevertheless, will take place ... "
And the analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan is generally inclined to see in all this signs of a revolutionary situation:
“Even if the prime minister’s illness is of a medical nature, it only exacerbates the problem, which is approaching its climax. Authorities already openly say that after quarantine we will live in another country. But another country is other people in power. More precisely, other balances. And in our country, where all the balances are somehow closed to a single person, this means that the question is connected primarily with his fate ...
A situation does not even arise of diarchy, there are many decision centers.
Frankly, it seems that we are approaching some sort of climax. It may be sharp, may be half-hearted, but it is already inevitable. The emergence of a new figure - I.O. Premiere - makes the situation acute. He will inevitably intervene in the alliances being created, either breaking them or strengthening them. Moreover, just IO has a motive because of its temporary status. There is a chance to make it permanent.
In general, in the near future (on the strength of a week or two), a unique situation will arise in many ways, when it will be possible to resolve the issue of power. Only a mutual distrust of the highest nomenclature and incompletely formed alliances within it can hinder the decision. Nevertheless, the time for the new February revolution has ripened, and its likelihood is becoming increasingly high. Another question is what will happen next, but first the ruling estate needs to go through this stage ... "
The Kremlin has denied media reports that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin may not return to his post even after recovering. On Thursday, the head of the Cabinet informed about the infection with the coronavirus of President Vladimir Putin via video link, saying that he was leaving for self-isolation.
"This is nonsense," the agency said. RIA News spokesman for the Russian president Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the message that the head of government may not return to the post of prime minister.