An interesting point of view on the political situation in today's Russia was presented in his blog by analyst Alexey Chadayev*:
“I watched with great interest Navalny's speech in Brussels about the upcoming elections to the State Duma. I have such an observation on this.
Today EP and Navalny are literally the same thing. Two "hands" working on one common scenario.
Navalny's main thesis to the European parliamentarians was to call for the "civilized world" to under no circumstances recognize the results of future elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the grounds that Lyuba Sobol's comrades would not be allowed to participate in them. A clear and rather open strategy: to declare the elections illegitimate now, nine months before the EDG, and to pitch this topic throughout the campaign. From here, it is even easy to guess how exactly the Sobol comrades are going to be nominated: exactly so as to create the maximum opportunity for administrators to remove them at the nomination stage.
The main thesis of the collective Turchak and the apologists of the "status quo" model (preservation of the constitutional majority of the United Russia** ("Yedinaya Rossia") in the next State Duma) is as follows: no matter how transparent and competitive the procedure may look, the forces of world imperialism will in any case do everything to declare the election results illegitimate. And therefore, it does not matter at all how many communists / Zhirinovites / Socialist-Revolutionaries / new parties will be in the State Duma - but at least how many, or not at all, that is the same thing. So - there is no need to break the comedy, pumping up the "systemic opposition" and losing the quality of control by the Duma - we draw up the campaign in the style of "the enemy at the gates" (this discourse will be additionally pumped up by numerous turbopatriotic spoilers), we make the numbers as it was, explain the result by the consolidation of the country in front of the growing threat external pressure, protests are extinguished with the background "and they are all agents of the State Department anyway."
Both of them benefit from the bipolar model - there is Putin and the country rallied around him, and there is Navalny and the enemy agents who have risen under his banner. All the others in the clearing are superfluous.
For both, this alignment seems ideal from the point of view of a monopoly on status rent - for some it is "from here", for others - "from there", but its nature is the same.
Before our eyes, an indestructible bloc of guards and overthrowers is taking shape, pushing the country with two hands to the same “Minsk version”.
The question is whether everyone else, who is neither one nor the other, will have the ability to recognize this fatal risk for all of them, and work out some sane answer to it.
So far, alas, it looks like a perky zombie apocalypse in the Zyu-Ji-Mi format and a chorus of "second-order legitimators" who will try to portray brightness, but without much enthusiasm due to the awareness of the predetermined result, awaits us in the 21 elections. Today's news about attempts to "enlarge" the SR - in general, into the same pocket.
The main intrigue is who has enough intelligence and eggs to break this sad "inertial scenario".
* The opinions of experts and authors may differ from the editorial position and are published in a discussion order
** the United Russia party - "Yedinaya Rossia" party, in Russian.