Domestic covid patients' room: specific mortality is already half of military losses

Comparing the pandemic situation in Russia with the Great Patriotic War is no longer surprising, but accuracy never hurts. Therefore, network analyst Vladimir Vasiliyev decided to find out arithmetically how justified this comparison is:

“How long did the Great Patriotic War last?

1418 days and nights.

And what are the total losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War?

At the hearings in the State Duma of the Russian Federation, a "figure" of about 42 (forty two) million people was announced.

So if we take this maximum estimate of losses and divide it by 1418 days, we get 29.6 thousand casualties per day.

Thirty thousand a day, Karl! - this is the maximum estimate of the losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War.

But if we take the official "figure" equal to 27 million people, then the average daily losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War will amount to 19 thousand people.

And what was the daily mortality rate in September in the Russian Federation?

The mortality rate exceeded 200 thousand people, amounting to 201.9 thousand.

That is, the average daily mortality in the Russian Federation in September reached 6.73 thousand people.

There are no data for October yet, but, apparently, the mortality rate was even higher. The question is - how much?

And what is the conclusion that begs itself inexorably?

The daily human losses of the Russian Federation now amount to at least one third of the average daily losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War.

But then there were 180 million people in the USSR, and in the Russian Federation now, according to Rosstat, 146 million, that is, the daily specific mortality in the Russian Federation has already come very close, if not yet reached, about half of the average daily specific losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War.

And apparently, the average daily specific mortality in the Russian Federation will continue to catch up with the average daily specific losses of the USSR in the Great Patriotic War ... "

Sociologist Alexey Raksha summed up the results of October and made a forecast for November:

About bad

Over the past week, the number of excess deaths was approximately + 86% of the norm, 4090 per day (28600 per week), a total of about 8850 per day.

For the year before last, the estimate rose from + 79% to the norm to + 81%, i.e. from 3735 to 3830 per day

October will be 246-247 thousand deaths (98 thousand excess).

My forecast for November:

120-140 thousand surplus and 260+ thousand in total.

All these are absolute records in the entire post-war history.

There is no longer any chance that at the end of the year the number of deaths will be below 2.45 million (rather, 2.48+), and the natural decline - less than 1.03 million (rather, 1.08+).

Above 70 years of life expectancy (LE) at the end of the year will not be accurate. Rather, 68.5-69.5.

The accumulated number of excess deaths from the beginning of the pandemic to the end of October is 835 thousand (of which 357 last year), at the end of November - about 960-965 thousand. A million will definitely be in December.

About good

The wave crest (morbidity), judging by the requests, has been passed.

According to yesterday's data from Yandex.Datalens, the share of requests began to fall or are falling for ALL 5 selected "covid" markers (for 7-day moving averages).

It is clear that all-Russian non-working days have nothing to do with it.

Queries correlated with EXCESS mortality:

1. "coronavirus treatment" - + 2% (+ 14% a week ago) - the maximum was 10/24/2021;
2. "pulse oximeter and saturation" - + 1% (a week ago +16%) - the maximum was 10/25/2021;
3. "the sense of smell has disappeared" - -3% (a week ago -1%) - the maximum was 10/15/2021;

1. + 2. + 3. - + 1% (+ 11% a week ago) - the maximum was 10/24/2021.

Query correlating with TOTAL mortality over time:

1. "call an ambulance" -2% (a week ago - 2%) - the maximum was on October 11. Anti-record holder - Penza region

Another good query reflecting the ambulance load (but too rare for a meticulous analysis by regions, especially small ones):

1. "What if the ambulance isn't coming?" -26% (a week ago -12%) - the maximum was on October 18. Anti-record holder - Kursk region.

The worst regions (the highest share of requests for the sum of the first 3):

Ryazan Oblast

Voronezh region

Belgorod region

Lipetsk region

Ulyanovsk region

Oryol Region

Tambov Region

Smolensk region

Kursk region

Ivanovo region

The lowest shares of 3 queries in the Far Eastern Federal District (purple lines)

the highest in the Central Federal District (red) and so far in the Volga Federal District (Magenta)

Combination of the share of 3 queries above or in the region of the average for the Russian Federation and rapid growth:

Transbaikalia + 26%

Tomskaya + 22%

Khakassia + 19%

Altai + 17%

Pskov + 14%

The fastest decline has long been in Bashkortostan, then in Ossetia, Orenburg region, Chuvashia, Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Ulyanovsk region

The incidence in Moscow and the Moscow region is, perhaps, slightly less or not more than the average for the Russian Federation, the growth is slightly faster (+ 6%), in St. Petersburg + Leningrad region the incidence is even slightly lower, the growth is + 5%.

In general, as a rule, the higher the incidence rate in the region and the longer it was above average, the slower the growth or the faster the decline (Volga region),

And vice versa, the lower the incidence rate was in August-September, the faster the growth is now (Siberia) ...

Further decline or plateau?

The birth rate has not fallen since last summer, has grown slightly due to 3 and subsequent children, the total fertility rate (TFR) is 1.52 per woman.