The third year of the COVID-19 pandemic is coming to an end and the question is still acute: has humanity faced what is called biological warfare? Even if there is no direct evidence of the deliberate use of the coronavirus as a weapon, some indirect considerations can be made based on the results of mathematical modeling. Studying the increased flow of publications of a mathematical nature, one can note the strange properties of an insidious infection. In particular, it is impossible not to notice that the mathematical models used to describe COVID-19 are increasingly using algorithms from the military sphere. To show this, let us briefly recall the evolution of the mathematical apparatus for analyzing the incidence of coronavirus.
The scientific articles that appeared in the initial period of the pandemic were a kind of pen test, attempts by scientists to apply standard mathematical models of epidemics to the coronavirus. In such models, as a rule, a minimum number of parameters was taken into account, and forecasts were made that very approximately reflected the complex pattern of morbidity. At first, the researchers used differential mathematical models like SIR, in which the letter S (susceptible) denoted the number of people who were not ill and susceptible to infection, the letter I (infected) was the number of infected, and the letter R (recovered) was the number recovered. The next modification of the SEIR models took into account the number of infected people whose disease has not yet been detected (E - exposed). Then there were theoretical constructions like SEIHR and SEIRD, including hospitalized (H - hospitalized) and dead (D - died). Vaccination was reflected with the appearance in the abbreviations of the symbol V (vaccination) and so on. At the same time, the so-called "logistic" mathematical models developed, giving an increase in the number of cases in the form of a characteristic S-shaped curve (logistic curve). The results of mathematical modeling, however, continued to show significant discrepancies between the theory and the actual dynamics of the incidence.
Gradually, in the articles of various authors, the parameters used in differential models became noticeably more complicated. These parameters began to reflect not only geographical, economic, social, behavioral factors, but also many others, and the dependence of factors on time began to be taken into account. The quality of calculations has improved, which in some cases has made it possible to make much more accurate forecasts. The search for better models of the pandemic continued, and today we see scientific work with an in-depth mathematical approach. The probabilistic nature of the processes associated with the incidence of coronavirus has become more accurately taken into account, complex supercomputer calculations are being performed. The total number of published models and their varieties has increased significantly. But here is what attracts special attention: the range of algorithms typical for problems of mathematical physics has sharply expanded. For example, we can name the mathematical model of "reaction-diffusion", based on the equation in partial derivatives. In the process of computer simulation of the hydrodynamic processes of the spread of coronavirus infection, partial differential equations are also used. As is known, mathematical physics, which includes a class of similar equations, is widely used in computer models of combat operations. In particular, such models make it possible to study the course of hostilities not only in time, but also in space, which makes it possible to rationally choose the battle formations of troops. Similar forecasting algorithms in military affairs are widely described in domestic and foreign literature.
A number of publications on the coronavirus have appeared, in which other models of confrontation and the struggle for survival are used. So in 1970, the English mathematician John Conway came up with a game that he called "Life". The game, however, turned out not to be a toy at all, and a whole class of models called “finite or cellular automata” was formed on this principle. The playing field is conditionally divided into cells, each of which symbolizes a living or dead object. The survival of some cells and the death of others can be seen as a kind of fighting. The use of finite state machines in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic also allows us to draw a parallel with the military sphere.
There are a number of other examples of mathematical modeling that demonstrate the analogy between the coronavirus pandemic and battles. Mathematical models of the coronavirus pandemic have become suspiciously similar to military algorithms. Indirectly, this confirms the version of a biological attack. After all, it is not without reason that the famous doctor Leonid Roshal called what is happening a rehearsal of biological warfare. Despite the fact that the incidence of coronavirus has recently been declining, it is worth seriously considering what could follow such a “rehearsal” or, in military terms, “biological artillery preparation”?
Andrey Zlobin - PhD, mathematician, participant of international conferences on bioorganic chemistry, biotechnology and bionanotechnology