Money will go into the pipe. How Europe punished Gazprom and all of Russia
The Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, even if it is completed, will bring Gazprom some losses. In accordance with EU requirements, half of its capacity - 27.5 billion cubic meters per year out of 55 billion - the Russian gas monopoly will have to be given to independent suppliers. But such physically does not exist.
As you know, the Academician Chersky floating pipelayer, which was supposed to complete the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, finally approached the area where the pipe was stopped - to the island of Bornholm in the exclusive economic zone of Denmark.
At the end of 2019, due to U.S. sanctions, Gazprom's main contractor, the Swiss company Allseas, suspended operations in Denmark and withdrew all of its vessels that built the pipeline. In December last year, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak announced that the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline could be completed by the Akademik Chersky ship in the Far East, which set off on a long journey across the seas and oceans.
But, it seems, I didn’t have it, because the Nord Stream-2 project, which cost 10 billion euros and was blocked by US sanctions, received a new and seems to be the final blow from the German authorities, who with a “control shot” deprived the pipeline of last hope for payback”, - reports Russian Monitor
Last Friday, Germany decided to refuse Nord Stream 2 AG to withdraw the project from the requirements of the updated EU Gas Directive. The German energy market regulator decided that Nord Stream-2 should comply with European competition standards. In practice, this means that even if the gas pipeline is completed by the end of 2020, half of its capacity is 27.5 billion cubic meters per year out of 55 billion of the Russian gas monopolies will have to be given to independent suppliers.
Gazprom is not able to fulfill the requirements: only its fields are connected to Nord Stream-2, and in addition, not a single Russian company has the right to export pipeline gas. In other words, the pipe will remain half empty. Recall that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is subject to restrictions related to the EU gas directive, since it was not completed until May 2019, experts said.
In such a situation, it would be difficult for us to refrain from gloating if it weren’t for one thing: the construction of an unnecessary gas pipeline whose sole purpose is to punish Ukraine and allow gas transit to bypass its territory, to the land, in the literal sense of the word, buried trillions of our money with you. ”
Network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan writes about this:
“In fact, this is the collapse of the project, and the final one. Gazprom failed in all its grandiose gas supply projects to Europe, and the situation with gas supplies to China is not much better, as long as the base fields do not have sufficient volumes to load the Siberian Force to design capacity. Additional gas can be transferred from Sakhalin, but now this project has been delayed in time, since the Academician Chersky, who was supposed to lay pipes to the mainland, has been hastily transferred to the Baltic and will definitely not start the Sakhalin project this year.
With this management, the pathosly paid record dividends for 2019 look like a feast during the plague, but on the other hand, Gazprom exists to save money and distribute it to the right purses. Everything else is secondary details ... "
Analyst Andrei Nalgin has a no less pessimistic view of the problem:
“And the Germans, of course, are handsome. In words, they rebelled against US sanctions regarding the construction of Nord Stream 2, which was almost 90% complete . But in practice. (...) Now they are set up very severely specifically for Russia. (...) Technically, Nord Stream 2 may still appeal this decision to the Düsseldorf High Land Court. But he can transfer the case to the European Court in Luxembourg, among 28 judges of which not everyone is happy to expand the presence of the Russian gas monopolist in the EU market.
Of course, this is not the end of Nord Stream-2 just as a pipeline project. Even after the defeat at the regulator and in the courts, it will probably be possible to finish the thread . And it’s not without reason that the patriotic public is following with aspiration the maneuvers of the Akademik Chersky pipe-laying machine, theoretically capable of completing the underwater part of the construction site (in what time frame - a separate issue).
But this is practically a knockout blow to the project’s economy. Its payback in the best of times, when the prices of fossil fuels were much higher than the current ones, caused great doubts. (...) In the light of the new energy reality , which has already negatively affected Gazprom’s export revenue, which fell by 16% over the past, relatively prosperous year, everything seems to be waiting for us in extremely harsh times. But the question, who will pay for the miscalculations and mistakes of the national heritage, probably is a rhetorical one?”