Julius Nisnevich: “There will be no state of emergency, because the government is afraid of responsibility”
After the decision of President Putin to shift the responsibility for quarantine measures to the regions, many observers of political trends began to talk about the renaissance of Russian federalism. However, there was a place for sarcasm, since a parade of gubernatorial resignations immediately took place (or began).
At the request of NI, Julius Nisnevich , professor, doctor of political sciences, assessed the current situation.
- The thing is that it seems that our supreme ruler and his entire company do not understand what to really do and are trying to get away from all the negative in this difficult situation. Please note that not only our supreme leader appears in separate episodes with slurred speeches, but all power structures have practically disappeared. All ruling camarilla hid. They decided to shift all responsibility to the unfortunate governors whom they themselves appointed. It is not known what these governors are capable of. The result is not federalization, but feudalization: governors become local feudal lords who have the right to introduce restrictions. If we ignore the legal side, then they really become feudal lords in their regions, who can punish their entire population and put them at home. Although at the same time I believe that quarantine is a very right thing. But the question is not quarantine itself, but that the decision is made by the local leader.
When there is federalism, there is also such a thing as “subsidiary responsibility”. The idea is that if a critical situation arises in a certain region, then the regional and federal authorities are jointly responsible. The central government should resourcefully help the regional one. This does not happen here. The federal government does not want to take any responsibility at all. Therefore, there can be no talk of federalization in this situation. Some of these leaders, too, to put it mildly, do not want to take responsibility. It turned out that there was no "vertical", it just fell apart. This is not federalization, but the collapse of the vertical.
- Some experts said that any withdrawal of their own free will in the Kremlin is perceived as a betrayal. How independent were the decisions of the dismissed governors? They were made an offer that they could not refuse?
- I think yes! If not for this, then not only these three, but also others would have successfully submitted an application. But they are not afraid of reprisals, but that they will not be forgiven for this in one form or another. And how do we understand that on each of them before the appointment was compromised. And they are most afraid that in this situation, if they really decide to shake off responsibility, they will not just leave the stage, but they will remember it and remember all the dirt that they have.
As for those "daredevils" who wrote the statements, it is very difficult for me to say whether they asked for it or not, but it seems that the Amur governor Ilyukhin himself resigned. Maybe they asked him, but he did not enjoy great authority, he had many problems with the economy, they missed the beginning of the outbreak of coronavirus. Apparently, he had nothing to lose, and he could resign independently.
As for the Arkhangelsk region, the situation is more tricky there. Please note that immediately the question arose of uniting the Arkhangelsk region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. There, he is now appointed governor of Tsybulsky, who was the governor of this very district. There is also an internal reconfiguration of power in the region. Perhaps everything will end in unification. This issue has already been discussed, but, apparently, the local teams then could not agree. Here some external game is quite possible. As always, our government, under the pretext of adversity, is solving its tasks. Just like with a wonderful tax on income from bank deposits. Nobody understood what this had to do with coronavirus, and in 2001 they made a change to the Federation Council and abolished the gubernatorial elections. No one knows what this relationship had to the fight against terrorism.
But these are my hypotheses and only God knows how reliable they are.
- Do you expect more resignations?
- My feeling that they will be. The question is when? Most likely, they will not be when it will be necessary to carry out something, and the governors cannot cope with the situation. They will start to happen when they start looking for scapegoats. Most likely, the governors understand that they will turn out to be scapegoats.
A good example is our beloved Sergei Sobyanin. At first, he threatened to put everyone under lock and key in a QR code. As soon as responsibility was openly hanged on him, he immediately handed back. He clearly understands that the measures proposed by him are unpopular, and all the negativity will pour not on the central government, but on him. Although I would have introduced a tougher regime in Moscow. Despite all the mayor’s statements that Muscovites behave well, we all understand that this is not true. A huge number of idlers still exists.
This whole situation showed that the authorities make decisions not within the framework of law and law. If a state of emergency were introduced, then no one would have had any problems. There are prescribed rules and procedures. But they dodge all the time. The key problem of emergency is that all responsibility lies with the government. And they avoid any responsibility.