Nikita Krichevsky: “People are in a situation of the undeclared economic catastrophe”Analytics
Russia is in a situation of the undeclared economic catastrophe in a closed financial space. Despite the fact that our people have been living on “pasture eating” for decades.
People should understand that it has become very difficult, but these are just flowers compared to what will happen after the epidemic ends. About this on the radio station "Komsomolskaya Pravda" said the doctor of economic sciences, professor Nikita Krichevsky.
According to the results of a recent survey more than 60% of Russians do not have any savings, but Krichevsky does not see any sensation in this.
“The fact is that two-thirds of the country's population had no savings, both five and ten years ago. This is evidenced by all previous polls. That was before 2008, before the 2014th. That was in the 1990s. We sat on beans in the same way! ”The economist noted.
According to Krichevsky, “a stable model of economic consumption of the nation has been formed and has established itself, which is professed by two-thirds of the inhabitants of our country.” And this model is not related to savings. Such a line, the professor said, is absent in principle. People live "somehow differently", and from the "Moscow height, which is actually not a height, but a pit, you can’t see it."
“People live not to say that at some black part-time jobs. But it may well be. They live on stocks. Not in any significant quantities, but these reserves are real. People live pasture. I mean country garden plots. Fact is fact. People live due to the fact that somewhere they get something from someone for cheap. And again - they are storing it. People live because it’s in the order of things when younger children carry things after older ones. All this is true, ”said Nikita Krichevsky.
The professor noted that it was completely obvious to him: the country is in a situation of an undeclared economic catastrophe, "it has already come, it already exists." But this catastrophe was far from universally recognized, because everything is extinguished by endless, from morning to night, conversations about the coronavirus and reports from hospitals. Although, the economist recalled, according to statistics, Russia is not included in the list of the first ten countries most affected by the pandemic.
“At the same time, we are not at all talking about the fact that we are in a situation of economic collapse. After May 9, he will give on the head so that little will not seem to anyone. Because your oil price on Monday was $ 13 per barrel for Urals. This was not even in 1998! Plus you have a paused economy. You have no one paying taxes. Because no one works. You don’t have money and everybody demands from you: give it, let it be! ”, Nikita Krichevsky said.
According to him, until May 9, "we will have not the economy, but politics."
“75 years of Victory is a crucial key date for the entire Russian leadership. A lot of energy, emotions, means were spent. Invitations were sent, it is not known, however, how much they are still relevant. This is a parade, if any. In any case, this is a holiday. This is one of the few bonds that still unite us, still somehow hold together. And this is not measured by any money. Therefore, until May 9, no one will spoil the mood of people. And who wants to spoil him, he will be shot to hell with a dog. A joke! ”Krichevsky quipped.
After May 9, the professor noted, “it will be May 10, the next day,” and nothing supernatural will happen. Nevertheless, Krichevsky did not exclude the possibility that in May some serious changes would follow in the composition of the government and the Central Bank.
“I don’t exclude that Ms. Nabiullina, a man accustomed to working under deadlock conditions, will agree to repeat this role for the second time in 22 years,” the economist emphasized.
According to Krichevsky, our budget loses about a quarter of what has been planned in terms of revenue. That is, it will be necessary in some way to either deal with sequestration, that is, reduce the cost items, or devalue the ruble, “either turn on the printing press”.
At the first stage, in his opinion, it is necessary to conduct controlled emission. This does not mean that the money will be "scattered from a helicopter, and according to the application via the Internet, send to the card 50 thousand rubles." But there will be some semblance of emission, according to the economist.
“If we refuse to receive any taxes to the budget, this is already helping people, businesses. This is the same percentage. If we say that someone will pay less, for example, in social funds, of course, the budget will pay extra. This, too, is already a percentage of assistance. Why do you think what needs to be done, like with Trump, so that everyone is given three thousand dollars, everyone would sit at home, drink beer and spit on crocodiles passing by? This does not happen. Trump has his own problems, we have our own, ”said Nikita Krichevsky.
The economist emphasized that in Russia, unfortunately, a closed financial space has formed.
“Nobody needs our rubles. If we print a lot of rubles now and distribute them, it means that they will immediately rush into the consumer market. And they will be quickly spent there. So what is next? Then silence. Nothing further. I do not defend the government. I say that we should not allow excesses. We must look forward. We must understand that it’s already hard, but these are flowers compared to what will happen after the epidemic is over, ”said Nikita Krichevsky.
According to the professor, Russia is definitely waiting for a change of formation. “This does not mean that there was socialism, now there will be capitalism, then there will be a third nonsense like communism or do not care. This is not about that at all. This is all much deeper. It concerns us, it concerns the nation, our society in its organizational form. ”
At the same time, Krichevsky urged never to take anything literally. “We just won’t feel it. This is happening behind the scenes. But this is already going on and will go on. ”