Depressing figures were cited by economist Yakov Mirkin on his blog. At the end of April, the results of the monitoring “Opinion of small and medium-sized businesses on measures of state support during the coronavirus epidemic” conducted by the Institute of Commissioners for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs at the end of April were summed up. Within its framework, 2,350 medium and small companies from 85 regions of Russia were surveyed in all sectors. As a result:
- Temporarily suspended their activities - 56% of companies,
- Completely closed - 1.5%.
- There is no way to pay salaries to employees - 56%.
- Can not repay debts to banks - 31%.
- Not able to pay rent - 45%.
- Demand for products has decreased by no less than half - more than 60% of companies ...
Commenting on these figures, Mirkin writes :
“The Russian state now looks like a gentleman, who has been exhausting his peasants for years, munching and skompomizing, saying:“ Well, be patient, brothers! I have what reserves! But cholera will come, sit in quarantine - then I’ll give you everything! ” But cholera, quarantine, and little houses lost weight, and the master sighs and says: “Well, it seems that this is not the case! And it’s not a crisis at all. We’ll save some more, hand them out for a penny, but there’ll be a lot for a dime. Yes, you still prove that at death ”We are dependent on the state, we are in eternal bargaining with it. To whom is a friend, to whom is an enemy, to whom is nobody. We are forced to build relationships with him. Our life depends on him.
There is a lot of our money. The National Welfare Fund in early March was 8250 billion rubles. This is approximately 56 thousand rubles for every soul in Russia. They are from the export of oil and gas - a resource belonging to the whole people. They saved up for a rainy day, did not spend on investments. So maybe they just give them away? It is not easy for all of us, we are horrified to see how our savings are melting, if any! Yes, you need to give, but to whom? This money is not rubber, and there are still many risks ahead. We are just entering a global crisis
The answer is to help, first of all, those who are over 70 years old. Especially in regions where families are poorer. They are at the highest risk of a pandemic. It is for them that it is most important not to rush from home, to have a supply of food and medicine, without cursing everything in the world.
13.8 million people over 70 live in Russia. 15 thousand rubles is the cost of stocking products for at least a month. And also this is the average pension in Russia in 2020. How much will we spend on such automatic, age-related, one-time help? How much, if we ask those who do not need it, just do not take the money, return it? Not understanding income, not demanding humiliating evidence that you are pulling barely?
According to estimates, no more than 150 billion rubles. This is 1.8% of the National Wealth Fund. But then - what the right money, and at what address! How much this changes our feelings of what is happening - instead of “helicopter money”, massive, quick, targeted assistance, with minimal costs! It is for those who need it most. State assistance - on behalf of all of us, from our common “mutual assistance fund” - the National Welfare Fund. And there is no need to search for retirement accounts for those over 70. All this is already there.
And who else needs urgent help without looking back? Families with children up to 8 - 9 years old. There are 19 million such children in Russia. And again - we ask those who do not feel the need for money to refuse to pay themselves. In honor, in dignity - we are strong, we do not need, give back to the weakest. One-time, quick help of 15 thousand rubles? Just the fact that there is such a child in the family for every child? How much money does it take, realizing that someone will definitely refuse, that we have a lot - strong, earning?
The answer is about 300 billion rubles? A lot of? Of course not, we can afford it! This is 3.6% of the National Wealth Fund.
Is there anyone else who needs urgent help? Yes, people with disabilities in the first group and children with disabilities (this is a separate group). They are about 2 million people. How much money do they need? 30 billion rubles. or 0.4% of the National Wealth Fund.
All together - about 6% of SWF. Let's do it quickly and rigorously, realizing that everyone does not need financial assistance from society, the state! Not needed, first of all, the strongest, wealthiest. No less than 10-15% of the population of Russia (15-20 million people) do not even think that someone should give them something. They have a family income of more than 60 thousand rubles per capita. Plus 9 - 10% of the population (up to 15 million people) with an income of 45 to 60 thousand rubles for each (Rosstat). Here the situation is worse, but nevertheless there is more or less money cushion, even if there is a break for 1-3 months.
Many of us work for the state - the state apparatus, the army, security, the public sector. They are guaranteed a salary. 2.1 million people work in the state apparatus, 13.7 million people in budgetary institutions (2018). Their income is part of the financial pillow for their families.
And how many of us are in the largest business, too big to be closed, often with the participation of the state? The number of employees in large enterprises is at least 50 million people. Only in the top 5 largest companies controlled by the state, at least 2 million people work. The top 100 private companies in Russia (according to Forbes-2019) have more than 3 million employees. And the members of their families? With all the double counts, cuts, part-time work, the experience of past crises convinces us that most of those who are employed in the public sector and the largest companies will survive, especially if the pandemic and quarantines continue for up to 3-4 months.
And who is left? Medium and small businesses and all those who have linked their fate with it. 22-23% of Russia's GDP, 6 million micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (staff - more than 12 million people), including 3.4 million individual entrepreneurs, more than 3 million self-employed. Worst of all will be for those who work "on wheels" and through loans. Small business, if customers are reduced, supplies, revenue, can withstand 1-3 months. Then he usually rushes, or contracts, or goes into the shade. And another - 14 - 15 million people are in the zone of informal employment, work without a contract. The highest risks are in the regions, especially in those where a large share of the population was engaged in otkhodnichestvo, works in large cities. She suddenly became motionless.
They do not need to give out money. These are all healthy people who want and know how to work. They want to have savings, to increase the property of families. They need help to save business and jobs. But as? Loans, under the lowest, up to zero percent, if only repaid later. Through whom? Not only through the largest banks, which are slow, but also through the entire network of 400 banks operating in Russia. Where? First of all, to the regions. Moscow is better saturated with money and will survive. For each credit institution, the Bank of Russia is well aware of its portfolio of loans to medium and small businesses, individual entrepreneurs, and farms. Open the limits of refinancing of the Bank of Russia for these purposes, on facilitated conditions - no technical problems.
And why loans? Not only for salaries - for working capital, so that the business goes, life goes on. Recall that we are talking about 22-23% of Russia's GDP. And at what expense? At least 15% of the National Wealth Fund! This is 1.2 trillion rubles. Only a quarter of loans already issued to “small and medium”. But how would it help in difficult times!
Only 20 - 21% of SWFs - to the most painful points of society and the economy. Not a printing press, this money is our accumulated income for a rainy day. They have already gone through budget once. We must not forget that at least a third of them will return to the state in the form of taxes and social payments. When we buy bread, all taxes are already included in its price. This is two-thirds of the money repayable. They will return to the National Welfare Fund. They will pay off handsomely.
This would be one of the most profitable investments for us - in the future. All the same, we will not go anywhere from the main tasks - the quality of life, family property, growth, modernization, innovation. This can be done only with small and medium-sized businesses, reaching 40 - 50% of GDP.
And finally, Mirkin makes an attempt to predict what will happen to the socio-economic sphere in Russia in 2020:
- Pandemic - from 250 - 300 thousand infected, 2nd place in the world;
- The fall in GDP - from 9-10% and above (IMF for the EU - by 7%). Why: three hits = pandemic + oil (gas, other raw materials) + weak support from the state;
- The ruble - from 79 - 80 ... (a bad year, how can it resist, even though the CBR is skillfully holding the course);
- Oil - 35 - 45 (restoration of global demand, although anything can be - this is the price of financial markets ) ;
- Model of society, economy - further movement towards administrative (well, if not mobilization), growth of nationalization, prohibitions. A tin can that is bubbling;
-Loss of value of family assets - from 15 to 3 0% (if the government will do something stupid - more)...