Experts speak differently about the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, some argue that they are disastrous, while others, on the contrary, are confident in their beneficial effects. For example, the popular blogger Alexander Rogers, summing up the first results of the sanctions pressure on Russia, comes to the conclusion that the West itself suffers much more from these measures, while they did not have much effect on the Russian economy, but only accelerated the process of abandoning the use of the dollar and transition to settlements in national currencies. For the West, Rogers predicts devastating consequences: entire branches of European industry, in his opinion, are threatened with ruin.
Rogers cites Cuba as an example, which has been “perfectly” living under sanctions for 60 years, and nothing... For Russia, the economic blockade does not make any sense at all - the country is too big, especially since 85% of the world's population did not support sanctions. The author lists the main events of the sanctions period:
- Bloomberg notes with regret that this year, "despite the sanctions," Russia's foreign trade revenues are expected to grow by 1.5 times - an additional $100 billion.
- The confrontation between the West and Russia has already caused an energy crisis in the EU countries, Britain and the United States. And in the short term, it will also cause a serious food crisis: fertilizers are becoming more expensive, greenhouses are becoming unprofitable, the harvest will be smaller, and prices will be much higher.
- In France, in the presidential elections, Macron's chances of being re-elected are very small. And his competitors are much more pro-Russian (inclined to cooperate with Russia instead of confrontation). Pro-Russian forces have already won elections in Serbia and Hungary.
- The so-called "oligarchs", that is, who stole here in the nineties and took the stolen goods there, are now suffering (it is enough to read the lamentations of Friedman and Aven), under the tacit approval of the people.
- Too obedient Western companies, which hastily curtailed their activities in Russia, have lost our market, which is now being entered by other companies that have not joined the restrictions.
- After a short-term collapse in the wake of the initial panic, the ruble is returning to its previous positions and in the future it is possible to further strengthen it.
- Significant assets, previously owned by foreigners, are bought up by the state for next to nothing.
- Gas storage facilities in Germany are empty. In the Czech Republic gas for a month. Gas prices are rising, and only one tenth of Russian gas can be physically replaced on the European market (that is, approximately 4 out of 40% of total gas consumption).
- Oil prices are also rising. Before the May introduction of a ban on the import of Russian oil, American purchases of it increased by almost one and a half times. In May, another jump in prices is expected.