Since June, experts say confidently, the situation on the real estate market has begun to noticeably change.
Falls and rises of the first half of the year were recorded by Frank RG analysts. Zigzags of statistics, which is predictable, began in March - after the start of the Ukrainian conflict. And the dynamics of the market directly depended on the key rate.
March. In the first month of spring, banks issued 160,000 loans to Russians for a total of 516 billion rubles. That is 9% more than in February this year.
Experts explain this with statistical "tails". “The growth is associated with the actual issuance of previously approved mortgage applications. At the same time, the share of purchases in the secondary market significantly exceeded the purchase of apartments in new buildings - people “jumped into the last carriage”, purchasing ready-made housing”, - explained Irina Kisileva, curator of the banking sector of the Russian Guild of Realtors (RGR) committee for working with partners.
Of the 516 billion rubles, 424 billion fell to the share of market mortgages. Under concessional lending programs, Russians received 93 billion from banks. And this is 83% more than in February.
April. The beginning of the collapse. In April, only 48,000 loans were issued for a total of 163 billion rubles. This is 69% compared to March and -71% compared to the same period in 2021.
In April, 35 billion rubles were issued under market programs (8 times less than in March), under state programs - 128 billion, that is, in a disastrous April, the market was kept almost exclusively due to concessional lending.
May. Representatives of the real estate market will remember him as the blackest. The issuance of loans decreased to 36 thousand transactions, the volume of mortgage lending amounted to 140 billion rubles. This is another minus 14% compared to April of this year.
The share of concessional loans amounted to 105 billion out of 140 billion rubles. Market mortgage accordingly remained at a low level - 35 billion.
June. Against the backdrop of a disastrous spring, June's statistics look triumphant. The number of issued mortgage loans almost doubled - 68.6 thousand. The total amount of lending is 251.5 billion rubles. The increase compared to May was 78.5%.
Analysts of Frank RG note that June, on the contrary, has already been "pulled out" by market mortgages, and not preferential ones. “In June, the minimum mortgage offer rates approached 10%. Compared to the rates in May and April, such a threshold is not psychologically insurmountable for consumers, and the secondary housing market is reviving,” said Frank RG project leader Artem Mosin.
Irina Kisleva adds: “In the “well-fed” years of 2020-2021, the share of mortgage transactions in the real estate market was about 80%, and in March-June this figure reached a record 90-95%.”
Compared with the indicators of the first half of last year, the issuance of loans for the six months of 2022 remained at a negative level: in ruble terms, the issuance of mortgages to Russians decreased by 54.4%, in quantitative terms - by 61.65%.
In total, Russian mortgage companies now owe banks more than 13 trillion rubles .
Despite the sharp drop in demand, apartment prices in Russia did not change significantly in the first half of the year, and even continued to grow.
According to Restste statistics, by the end of March, a square meter of an apartment in new buildings has risen in price by 5.6%. In April and May, growth was less than 1%. In early June, the market for new buildings showed + 1.43%. By the end of the month already +2.03%.
In all major cities of the country, when compared with the spring of last year, neither the pandemic nor the current crisis could contain prices in the primary real estate market.
For example, the average price per square meter in Moscow a year ago was at the level of 255 thousand rubles, in May 2022 - more than 322 thousand rubles. In St. Petersburg, the price of primary housing has risen in price from 170,000 rubles to 235,000 rubles over the year.
Prices for the secondary housing in the first half of the year behaved "more modestly". By the end of March, the cost per square meter jumped by 2.75%. By the end of April and in May, the price was losing from 0.22% to 0.52%. In June, prices slightly corrected in the range of +0.06%.
In annual dynamics, the situation in the secondary market is comparable to the primary market: finished apartments in Russian cities (depending on geographical location) rose in price in the range from 15% to 30%.
In general, the average current prices for housing in the mass segment in Russia were estimated by the Russian Guild of Realtors (RGR).
According to the chairman of the analytics committee of the Russian Guild of Realtors Elvira Epishina , in two capitals - Moscow and St. Petersburg - housing prices for the mass segment average 200-260 thousand rubles. Elite real estate in two megacities today is estimated in the range of 1 million rubles per square.
The Urals, Siberia, the South of Russia and the Volga region show up to 200 thousand rubles per square meter. The Far East is also among the regions with high prices. And in the Krasnodar Territory (Anapa, Novorossiysk, Krasnodar), the average price per square meter. m of housing, for example, is more than 100 thousand rubles.
According to CIAN analysts, in the first half of the year, the number of transactions in the primary market fell to the levels of 2017-2018. But already in June the market revived slightly: the number of transactions increased by 19.7%. Experts attribute this to the launch of numerous programs to stimulate demand.
In the foreseeable future, RGR experts allow a slight decrease in prices for new buildings in the regions. First of all, in the segment of mass housing, where developers can sell apartments without finishing. But the same horse move more often began to make and developers, sharpened by the elite and business segments. “Here, too, there is a tendency to refuse to hand over objects on a turnkey basis, as in the mass segment, where such a handover has practically been abandoned”, - Elvira Epishina explained.
But the discount is more often applicable only in million-plus cities, where there is usually no shortage of new buildings. This is traditionally Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, plus Tyumen, Ufa.
In regional centers with a population of more than 500,000 people, there is a shortage of supply in both the primary and secondary markets, experts from the RGR say.
According to CIAN analysts, after record demand in the secondary market in March (when people, according to Kisileva, "jumped into the last car"), demand began to fall to the level of 40-50% in the spring. But since the end of June, demand, as in the case with the primary, began to show signs of life (so far at the level of ad views and calls).
According to the forecast of the head of CIAN.Analyst Alexey Popov, after lowering mortgage rates from prohibitively high to high, the market should recover. “In addition, deferred demand has partially formed in the market over the past two months. In the coming months, we expect a slight increase in the number of concluded contracts”, - Alexey Popov assessed the immediate prospects for the resale.
According to his forecast, the prevailing trend will continue in the dynamics of prices - stagnation with a slight decrease. And the prices of real transactions will fall due to discounts in the process of bargaining with the end buyer. The RGR adds that such a trend - a discount from the seller - in the short term will be especially typical for small towns with a population of up to 100 thousand people.
Irina Kisileva is also ready to give odds to the real estate market in the short term.
“The trend of increasing demand from the population for real estate transactions in August 2022 is positive. This can be hoped for by the growth in the number of clients coming to the office for consultations. What will happen next is difficult to predict at the current moment”, - Irina Kisileva summed up.