A perfectly sensible and reasonable post dedicated to the new so-called self-isolation regime approaching Russia was published by a Moscow official Alexander Yevsin:
“The overwhelming majority of patients with COVID-19 carry the virus in a mild form, only 5% are in serious or critical condition, said the chief infectious disease specialist of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, professor at Sechenov University Vladimir Chulanov. Most of the cases are people with a mild course of the disease - more than 70% of the general population. About 15% of the population of patients are patients with moderate course, only 5% are severe and critical conditions with severe pneumonia and severe respiratory failure", - Chulanov said on Tuesday within the framework of the International Forum Days of Virology.
In fact, the situation is even better. It's about terms. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the doctor said that 70% of patients with covid have a mild disease. And "asymptomatic" from the point of view of a doctor is not sick. The overwhelming majority of asymptomatic, I believe, do not even know that they had any contact with the virus at all. Here is an example of such a person. At the same time, his wife and entourage were also not sick with anything. Which greatly undermines many alarmist theses.
Why am I specifying this? Because the misinterpretation of even such obvious data, coupled with published statistics, can mislead the audience. How does this happen? The fact is that the statement “70% tolerate it in a mild form” is identical to the statement “30% tolerate it in a difficult form”. Therefore, a person who does not understand the essence of the process looks at the statistics of "infections" and applying a coefficient of 0.3 sees that more than 1000 patients with "not mild" forms appear in Moscow every day, and psychosis begins ... the beds end, the peak must be cut, etc. what is the error?
The doctor speaks of the sick, based on the usual medical definition of the term. And many "infected", slightly less than completely not sick people, i.e. no symptoms, no health complaints. They became "infected" as a result of extensive testing. For example, in Moscow, in accordance with the Mayor's Decree, at least 15% of employees of institutions are tested weekly. In government organizations, this is done with great diligence. As a result, we have an endless stream of testing, which is constantly increasing the number of "infected". This becomes a prerequisite for psychosis and prerequisites for disruptions in the health care system. For example, many people don't believe me when I talk about large-scale testing. They do not believe for one simple reason: because they came to the clinic with a fever, and they did not have a covid test. Although it would seem ...
An example of such a person. He wrote a very interesting and revealing post about it. But this is a fact! In Moscow, there is indeed a super-scale (I would say completely redundant) testing of everyone in a row, but at the same time it turns out that people who come to the clinic with ARVI symptoms themselves may not have enough resources, as in the case of Sergei. Read his story (since Sergey's post contains profanity, in order to avoid the sanctions of Roskomnadzor, we invite readers to find this publication on his page themselves, ed.)
Even more surprising is the increase in psychosis against the background of previously published data and declared positions in July!
- Deputy Mayor of Moscow Rakov: 21.7 percent of Muscovites have antibodies to COVID-19;
- Moscow Mayor Sobyanin: 60% of Muscovites have a collective immunity to coronavirus.
Let me remind you, July... And now it's October. All indicators should be even higher.
These are indicators that unambiguously indicate the social danger of covid, at least the level that is completely usual for ARVI, and as a maximum less dangerous. All this is solely a matter of individual health and treatment. And the usual ARVI can lead to the grave, and improper treatment can lead to death or complications. Exactly the same is true for covid.
And how to assess the statistical health risk from meeting a virus. Let's take the most pessimistic options. 21% of Muscovites with antibodies to covid means that approximately 3 million Muscovites met with the virus at the end of July - there was no apocalypse. The mortality rate of infection is 0.1% In fact, it is even less, because the statistics of deaths from covid include virtually everyone with detected traces of coronavirus. Heart attack, oncology, stroke - there is a coronavirus in the analyzes, statistics are replenishing - this overestimates the lethality of covid ... but even with this accounting method, the indicators are at the level of ARVI. This once again proves the usual degree of danger of covid, comparable to or less with ARVI.
All these are prerequisites for a complete change in the strategy of action, especially given the enormous economic and social damage. There is no point in looking for the "infected" if there is no evidence. There is no point in fines and restrictions. We need to help those who are in need. Not so many people need it, at the level of the usual quantitative indicators characteristic of ARVI. What is the point of scattering the resource on everyone, and not concentrating on an important area - helping risk groups, I do not quite understand..."
Analysts of the Proeconomics channel also turned to this most pressing topic, having considered three options for the next lockdown that the authorities can apply:
“Not slowly, but quite briskly in recent days, Russians are being prepared for a new period of self-isolation. The scale of detection of patients with coronavirus is already reaching the April-May figures. The economy will no longer be able to withstand the second lockdown, especially in large cities. For example, in Moscow the level of decline could then be estimated at 15-20% of the GRP.
Even in a couple of months of lockdown, catering and other services, half of the shopping center industry (all the more tied to lending), construction, airports, etc. will die. In general, they employ up to 50-60% of Moscow employees. Many million-plus cities have a similar economic structure.
In theory, all costs for business and employees can be covered by the budget. This is probably about aid in the amount of 10-15% of GDP (in the first lockdown, Russia got off only 3-4% of GDP aid). This money is in the NWF - 13.3 trillion. rubles, but something suggests that the government will not dare to use it fully.
There is a second option - "Swedish": it is to put everything at the mercy of nature, ie let 100-200 thousand Russians die peacefully from Covid, mainly old people and chronicles, and leave the rest to the development of "natural immunity." Do not close businesses, let the Russians regulate their behavior themselves. But this is already a political decision.
There is a third option, a hybrid one (Russia passed it in the first lockdown) - to gradually allow financial assistance to business and employees, and to close our eyes a little to the death of some of the weakest members of society. But the second time it may not work: we will get both economic and political problems. But it can carry it in (here specialists have to calculate)..."