Two months after the scandalous elections, the dictator continues to balance between the parties of security officials ("siloviks") and "Westernizers".
Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov summed up the results of the two months that have passed since the presidential elections in Belarus:
“Exactly two months have passed since the presidential elections in Belarus. August 9 was supposed to be a passing date for the country, but Lukashenko, who gained 82% (later they would be reduced to 80.10%), could not confirm his legitimacy and the country was engulfed in protests that continue to this day. What has changed in 2 months?
- Lukashenko retained power, but lost his legitimacy. In fact, he is already a former president, who can only partially use his power de jure, since neither the West nor part of the population recognizes him.
- Despite the forced friendship with Putin, Lukashenko is still afraid of integration with the Russian Federation, since in this case his elites risk losing their assets, and with them their "investments" in the West. As a result, all Lukashenko's entourage is opposed to him and his plans, realizing that he is saving only himself.
- The opposition is acting slowly but surely. Instead of the “Kyrgyz” scenario with a quick seizure of power, the White-Reds are building a new social paradigm there. Power is not taken, but the very attitude towards it is changed - this is a much more fundamental approach.
- The absence of clear leaders prevents the regime from stifling protests. Tihanovskaya, Nexta and other "leaders" are actually just organizers. The protest itself has a network structure, a decentralized apparatus and ideological transparency.
- Lukashenko wants to carry out a constitutional reform on the Chinese model, but he has no political and party support. As well as the opportunity to hold an open referendum, which will only explode the protest. However, playing in this direction allows him to continue balancing between the "party of the siloviki" and the "Westerners" in his government, as well as between Russia, the EU and the PRC".
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