Russia, while maintaining the current dynamics, will demonstrate in 2022 one of the worst indicators in history - the birth of 9.1 children per 1,000 inhabitants. Worse things with the birth rate (8.7-9 children per 1000 inhabitants) were only at the turn of the century in 2000-2001 after the default.
As Novye Izvestia recently found out, the regions rich in oil and gas, the Caucasus, strong in traditions, and the drunkard and impoverished Tyva, are mainly helping to maintain the birth rate in Russia. But much more subjects of the Russian Federation are pulling demographics to the bottom. Even in Europe, which is given to us as an example of hopeless degeneration, more children are now being born - an average of 9.3 children per 1,000 inhabitants. In Finland there are 10.6 newborns per 1000 inhabitants, in Denmark - 11.1, in Norway - 12.2. Even in the USA - 12.4. In the ranking of countries by birth rate from the CIA, Russia is in 191 place out of 229 possible (and even the Americans assess our situation more optimistic than our Rosstat, assuming that we will catch up to 10 babies per 1,000 inhabitants).
Now in Russia there are 50 regions that demonstrate birth rates that are worse than average. But just recently - in 2017, only 3 regions (Leningrad region, the Republic of Mordovia and the Tambov region) showed a birth rate below 9. So, which regions are pulling the country to the bottom most of all now?
Almost all "outsiders" in terms of fertility are located in the central part of Russia and are carriers of traditional Russian culture. According to the chairman of the supervisory board of the Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, Yuri Krupnov, this situation has developed because the authorities simply waved their hand in these territories, and they became donors of human resources for Moscow and the Moscow region.
- In Moscow and the Moscow region, if you remove the young migration growth, there will also be bad numbers. And if with the general birth rate, the numbers there are even worse than in neighboring regions. But this is masked by the fact that young active families are coming, their incomes are increasing, it seems to them that life is good. In general, there are some waves of additional births. These regions (Smolensk, Ryazan Tula and other regions) are a macro-region that can be defined as the Non-Black Earth Region. And this is actually a region of the historical identity of the Russian people, and it is in the most terrible state in Russia. Because, firstly, Moscow and St. Petersburg are like two vacuum cleaners, pumping out all the forces from the surrounding regions, and secondly, today they do not pay any attention to the Non-Black Earth. This macro-region - a region of socio-economic catastrophe - is not defined anywhere in our country, even in the Spatial Development Strategy adopted in 2019 ...even this word is not there. In my opinion, this is a blatant situation, except for swear words, I cannot characterize it in any way.
The low birth rate in the "non-Black Earth region" is not a given. In the same Smolensk region in 1985, the birth rate reached 14.8 babies per 1,000 inhabitants, and in the Penza region - 14.5 in 1980. Pre-revolutionary Russia is a completely different world. The Smolensk region, even being engulfed by the war in 1812 and the cholera epidemic in 1848, showed a natural increase in population.
Today, young people leave these regions in search of a better life. Here, the proportion of people over 40 who, as a rule, no longer think about having children, is higher than the national average. In the Smolensk region, 54.4% of people are over 40 years old, in Mordovia - 54.6%. These are all regions of pensioners. The age category of 60-64 years is the most numerous.
Yuri Krupnov considers the outflow of young people a very dangerous phenomenon for demography and the country's survival.
- The growing “moscovization” of the country continues, where the word “moscovization” is both “depopulation” and “deprivation of money” of the country, in fact, a synonym for terrible destructive things.
In Russia, there is a conviction that a high birth rate is where traditional values and a responsible attitude of men and women towards each other and towards children are developed. This point of view is shared by Elena Istyagina-Eliseeva, Deputy Chairperson of the Commission of the RF OP on Physical Culture and Promoting a Healthy Lifestyle, Scientific Director of the Institute of Sports Management and Law of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- First of all, the country should deal with the issue of reproductive behavior. Many surveys show that women are ready to give birth, but they ask: “And for whom to give birth?”. Our men are more and more focused on pleasure and less and less willing to take responsibility for the family. You have to be responsible for the woman and the child. My opinion is confirmed by a large number of divorces: 7 out of 10 marriages break up. This is a very sad statistic.
The Russian government likes to nod at the "decaying" Europe, where the institution of marriage has practically died. But this, oddly enough, does not interfere with the birth of children. According to Eurostat, illegitimate children account for more than 50% of births in recent years. In Iceland, which leads Europe in terms of fertility (13.3), 70% of children are born out of wedlock. In France - 60%, in Norway - 56%. These countries are far from those bonds that they are trying to instill and instill in the people in Russia, sympathize with the LGBT movement, but continue to give birth and survive. And how can one not recall our Tyva, where the largest proportion of unmarried children in Russia (59.2% with an average value for the country of 21%) and the highest birth rate coexist perfectly.
And all the regions included in the anti-rating in terms of fertility differ in a small proportion of births out of wedlock. In the Penza region, only 14.9% of children are born out of wedlock, which is one of the lowest figures in Russia. Even in Chechnya, with all the strictness of traditions and large families, 16.3% of children are illegitimate . Surprisingly, such an open relationship in terms of demographics gives good results.
Yelena Istyagina-Eliseeva notes that the government of the Russian Federation has come up with many measures of material support for mothers and young families. It's all in vain.
- Numerous social measures to support motherhood in Russia, alas, do not give tremendous results. State support for motherhood and childhood is very significant: increased sick leave for caring for children under 8 years old, benefits for women registered in the early stages of pregnancy, as well as benefits for single parents of children from 8 to 17 years old. The annual allocation of serious amounts for the provision of maternity capital. Payment of benefits in connection with the birth of a child and childcare benefits for the uninsured - that is, for citizens who did not work before the birth of the child. However, all of the above only to a small extent affects the increase in large families in our country.
Many experts also point to the illogicality of accruing maternity capital (524.5 thousand rubles for the first child and additional payments of 168.6 thousand rubles for the second), considering it more effective to support the birth of second and third children. On November 8, Putin instructed to increase payments for the first child to 590 thousand rubles, and for the second - up to 780 thousand rubles. (but this is if you didn’t receive for the first one, otherwise the surcharge will be only 190 thousand). But it didn't change the essence.
While the deputies are trying to convince us that gay parades and LGBT propaganda are hindering the birth rate in Russia, the government’s social bloc seems to have finally lost hope of getting a baby boom through improving the welfare of the population, and moved on to dubious experiments. It was in 2020, when maternity capital was transferred from the second child to the first, that the birth rate for the first time in many years dropped to below 10 births per 1,000 people. Russia is stuck in uncertainty: neither "spiritual" Europe, nor poor Africa, where they still do not know that a family can be planned. They give birth most of all in backward wild countries - apparently, our government is leading us to backwardness and savagery - in the name of preserving the reproduction of the population.