According to the independent political scientists and politicians, Lukashenko lost the elections. And most likely the real results are mirrored.
According to the latest reports from Belarus, the security forces have already begun to go over to the side of the protesters. It is reported from Pinsk (Brest region) that riot police went over to the side of the protesters. The militiamen lowered their shields. People move freely around the city center, chanting slogans, singing Tsoi's famous song "Changes!'
In Lida (Grodno region), it is also reported that riot police officers lowered their shields to the applause of the protesters.
The Belarusian opposition refused to recognize the election results. Analysts agree on one thing: the main thing that determines the outcome of these elections is that the person who has been ruling the country for a quarter of a century, declaring that the president's work is his way of life and outside of it he does not think of himself, he will never give up power, for anything and no one.
Thus, political scientist Kirill Rogov writes: “It looks like Alexander Lukashenko lost the elections or is close to the beginning of the war. We will never know the real data of the voting”.
Lev Shlosberg, deputy of the Pskov Regional Assembly, member of the political committee of the Yabloko party, is sure that the official figures for the presidential elections in the Republic of Belarus have the same relation to reality as the electoral fraud plan itself, to which these figures correspond. They no longer correspond to anything.
Lukashenko hates the people, the people hates Lukashenko, but this is not reflected in the official election results. Lukashenko lost contact with reality. He, like any schizophrenic, lives in an undivided reality, and this reality of his came into an ultimatum clash with the reality of the people.
Defending his schizophrenic reality, Lukashenko is ready to go to blood, forcing the people to come to terms with schizophrenia. The people will not accept it, it is obvious. The people who are not resigned to the schizophrenic and hate Lukashenko make up the majority of the citizens of Belarus.
For every drop of blood, if, God forbid, it is shed, Lukashenko will answer before the court. And the likelihood that this trial will take place in Belarus is very high. All his misanthropic convulsions, all his crimes against humanity are documented.
Human and civil rights and freedoms are not an internal affair of any country. Protecting the rights of the citizens of Belarus, from whom millions of honestly cast votes have been stolen, becomes the responsibility of the international community.
If Russia officially recognizes the official results of the criminal presidential elections in Belarus, it will poison the relationship between Russia and the Belarusian society for a long time. Putin recognizes them, of course. And thus, he will anticipate his own political destiny.
Network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan sees nothing unexpected in the results:
“In general, there is logic: if you draw the result, then do not stretch for any two rounds, but beat backhand. Now the main thing for the regime is to survive the outrage. And there - how it goes.
In general, the first round did not bring any surprises: no one tried to hide the fact that the largest falsification in Belarusian history would be. The second round is, of course, the street. The third round is the recognition of elections outside Belarus. Or non-recognition. It depends on the outcome of the second round. "
Ukrainian political scientist Andriy Okara predicts a bloody outcome:
“Moscow (the Kremlin) and Minsk (more precisely, Lukashenko) this week exchanged complex“ messages ”that were understandable to the addressees, but not quite clear to external observers (you and me).
Kremlin - Lukashenko (via the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda and other state or pro-Kremlin media): We understand that you understood everything correctly with the Wagnerites. Yes, they were not going to overthrow you, but to be at the right time in the right place. It is possible that they would even save you from an angry opposition Ploshcha or urgently take you out of Belarus (like Yanukovych from Ukraine in February 2014).
You have fallen into a trap - all the bridges seem to have been burned. But we came up with the design of a new light chain bridge across the abyss - we blame everything on the Ukrainians and the SBU - like they wanted to embroil you and me and plant a mine under the Union State. It is clear that this is a complete mess, but we are doing all this so that you can save face (in front of us) and so that we, too, could save our faces (in front of you). So, don't betray anyone to Ukraine, return all of us, and let those who doubt suck the story of the Lviv cashiers who sold tickets to Istanbul. Let's shake hands - and on a long journey for many years!
Lukashenko to the Kremlin (via an interview with Gordon): Putin is my elder brother. I didn't have my older brother, and I didn't actually have a father. Therefore, Putin is sacred for me. I understand, Dmitry, that you want me to tell you nasty things about him. But I will not tell. Although, of course, I don't remember when Putin and I met. And he remembers - and reminded me too. Well, in general, I flew to Sobchak in St. Petersburg, and Putin met me at the airport. Or at the train station. What's the difference. Met. As we met, we will disperse, if anything.
Lukashenko had excellent chances to honestly gain real 50% + 1 votes in the first round, but no opposition in 50% of Lukashenko will believe.
Ploshcha, but not in the 2010 format, but in the updated format is inevitable. With unforeseen consequences (I do not want to voice my forecast - it is very cruel and bloody).
The question is who will or will not recognize the election results. It was for this purpose that they were postponed to August 9 - to make it difficult for the European bureaucracy not to recognize them. If there are no problems with recognition in the West, then Lukashenko will not bludgeon the opposition too much. Dialogue with the Kremlin will be tough and unpleasant. If the West does not recognize the results, the situation becomes more complicated for Lukashenko: he starts a completely different type of dialogue with the Kremlin (they say, if you please get your 33 miraculous heroes back - safe and sound, etc.).
But yes! The Russian regime and the Belarusian regime will not survive without each other. The elimination of one will mean the quick elimination of the other. And they both understand it..."
Political analyst Alexander Morozov is sure that only Lukashenko is to blame for what is happening:
“As I already wrote, in politics the left sock becomes the left when the other sock is put on the right foot. And we can clearly see this in the situation with Tikhanovskaya. If, according to the results of the elections, she had 12-17%, she would become a spoiler (since she provided "competitive elections"), but since Lukashenko decided to take 80% for himself, and leave 7% for herself, then instead of a spoiler, she turns into BIG PROBLEM..."
Network analyst Andrey Nalgin called the expected development of events:
“What can you say here? Expected...
In the sense that all sides were preparing for exactly this development of events after the elections of the Belarusian president. On which the incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko will receive about 80% of the vote, no matter what alternative exit polls say.
Now it remains to see who prepared better.
So far, judging by the photos from Minsk, the almost spontaneous anti-Lukashenko protest looks neither massive, nor organized, nor promising. Though external impressions can be deceiving.
In any case, the opponents of the incumbent president skillfully leaked the entire "protest".
Reportedly, after the end of voting at the headquarters of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, voters are urged not to leave the polling stations and, if necessary, to file complaints about violations. At the same time, they emphasize that the headquarters will not call people to active protests. Allegedly, non-violent tactics have been chosen. “The siloviki must see that we are completely peaceful, that the image of the militants against whom they were trained and incited does not exist”, - one of the headquarters employees explains and adds that they are counting on the conscientiousness of the siloviki. “If you choose between leaving 50 thousand. and they were beaten up, and so that no one came out at all, we choose the latter”, - as if the oppositionists say.
What makes one think about the strictly operetta nature of the entire anti-Lukashenko "opposition", firstly. And about the completely exaggerated figures of its support, secondly. As for the layouts for Russia, a separate note should probably be made. Interesting?
And, the main question of the day . Are we going to congratulate Alexander Lukashenko?"
Russian politician Ilya Yashin believes that Lukashenko lost the election crushingly.
1. Lukashenko lost the election crushingly. At many polling stations, the commissions were afraid to rewrite the protocols and confirmed that Tikhanovskaya received more than 70%. The same data was shown by an independent exit poll. However, this did not prevent the Central Election Commission from totally falsifying the results and declaring 80% for Lukashenko.
2. There is a very tough regime in Belarus. A real police state and a long-term practice of suppressing dissent. For years, Lukashenko has been building a system that will allow him to retain power even with a complete loss of confidence from the people.
3. The citizens of the republic are highly respected. They knew perfectly well how the protests would end, and no one doubted that Lukashenko was ready to shed as much blood as it would take to stay in power. And still they went out into the square, literally under the bullets, to resist desperately and courageously. Self-esteem was stronger than fear.
4. Many people compare yesterday's Minsk with the rallies on the Kiev Maidan, looking for mistakes in the actions of the protesters. But such a comparison is completely inappropriate.
4.1. Ukraine in 2013 had a strong opposition movement, integrated into the political system and ready to take power immediately. Opposition parties were well represented in parliament. Major businessmen (including future President Poroshenko) were on the side of the protesters. The metropolitan administration was relatively loyal and coordinated protest actions without any problems.
4.2. In Belarus, over the past quarter of a century, politics has turned into a scorched field. At the end of the nineties, Yuri Zakharenko and Viktor Gonchar, who had claimed the presidency, disappeared without a trace. One of the security officials, who later fled to Europe, admitted that they were kidnapped and killed on the orders of Lukashenko. Opposition parties were banned. The editorial offices of the media were crushed. Politicians, activists, journalists were either imprisoned or forced out of the country. Lukashenko has consistently created a powerful repressive machine.
4.3. Of the three opposition presidential candidates this year, Lukashenko did not let any of them go to the polls: Babariko and Tikhanovsky are in prison, Tsepkalo managed to leave the country. Only Tikhanovsky's wife was registered in the elections, and even then, obviously, for fun. The opposition nominated her out of despair, and the authorities clearly did not take this woman seriously.
5. I would like to speak separately about Tikhanovskaya. Lukashenko underestimated her in vain: Svetlana showed an amazing example of steadfastness and courage. A housewife with no public experience gathered huge protest rallies across the country, finding the right words and choosing the right intonations.
- Svetlana, how long do you think we will have to endure all this? - If you endure, then for a long time.
Someone is now criticizing Tikhanovskaya for not being in the front ranks yesterday under the bullets of the special forces. Leave her alone. Svetlana is a politician against her will, she does not crave power and has done everything in her power. Do not forget that her husband is held hostage and is still behind bars. And try to understand what kind of iron will it took her to go all this way before voting day.
6. Despite the brutal suppression of the protests, nothing ended in Belarus. Everyone understands: Lukashenko is a fake president, his power rests solely on the loyalty of the security forces. And most importantly, the security forces themselves understand this. Lukashenko’s dependence on generals is now almost one hundred percent.
7. Lukashenko no longer has and cannot have any allies, except for the security forces. For Western leaders, he will always be a toxic waste that cannot be dealt with. But for Putin, he is now an unpredictable scumbag. Not only did Lukashenko build his entire election campaign on anti-Russian rhetoric, he also arrested the militants from the Wagner PMC. Putin is now forced to write him long explanatory notes like a guilty schoolboy, and Lukashenko gladly tells journalists about it. The Kremlin's propaganda no longer conceals irritation towards the Belarusian dictator.
8. Lukashenko is considered to be an experienced and cunning politician. But he obviously played too much, turning against himself everyone who can be imagined - starting with his own people, ending with all the key players on the world stage. The generals, who still provide him with power, in such a situation are also probably uncomfortable. The risks are too high for everyone who is now with Lukashenko.
9. I do not believe that the West, the Kremlin or Beijing can persuade Lukashenko to leave by offering any guarantees. There are no such guarantees. Lukashenko understands very well that there are only two chairs for him - either power or a life sentence.
10. Itself will not leave. But I will not be surprised if after some time the head of the local KGB suddenly appears on TV and reports on the arrest of “former President Lukashenko” under the article on the forcible retention of state power. I am sure that Lukashenko himself is well aware of these risks - it was not in vain that he arrested the head of his personal guard a year ago, suspecting him of working for the FSB.
11. One way or another, the wait for changes in Belarus is not long. I'm sure of that.
Let's add on our own. Contrary to tradition, there was not a single rally or meeting in support of Lukashenko in any region of Belarus. There were no celebrations in the inner circle of the Belarusian dictator. Which in itself speaks about the real results of the voting.