Network analyst Pavel Vishnevsky publishes the cycle chart of all the world's major reserve currencies. It turns out that one cycle is from 80 to 110 years, and therefore, the dollar, which began to play this role just about a hundred years ago, should soon leave the scene. Is it really?
Vishnevsky believes that not entirely, since the change of currencies in world history did not happen by itself, but as a result of extinction - war and the ruin of the state that issued them, while the money of the winning country came to replace it, as it was after the First World War...
At first, in the 14-16 centuries, Portuguese reals dominated, which is associated with the heyday of Portugal, which became an empire in that era, and opened the sea trade route to India.
In the 16th century, it was replaced by Spain, to which Portugal lost the war and for which the "golden age" began with the discovery of America. By the 17th century, this country had turned into a huge empire, from South America, Asia and Africa to the Netherlands and Italy... Escudo is becoming the main world currency.
100 years later, it also fell into decay as a result of protracted wars and conflicts, and after liberated from the Spanish yoke, the enterprising Holland, which quickly became the leader of world trade, and, accordingly, its guilders, enters the scene.
At the end of the 17th century, the Dutch were defeated in the war with France, and French louis and livres entered the arena. Their age lasts until the very defeat of Napoleon and the fall of his empire in the early 19th century.
The century of Great Britain and the pound of streling begins. Unlike, say, tsarist Russia, she was able to get the most out of Napoleon's defeat, and the entire 19th century and the beginning of the 20th became the era of the heyday of all English.
And then it was replaced by the United States and the dollar, because after the 1st and 2nd World Wars, England, although it did not lose, but became very weakened economically and politically. Few will survive two such wars with an interval of a quarter of a century, but the US and the dollar have suffered much less than all the others, and have become leaders.
And so every time - the same cycle. A new state is emerging - a candidate for the role of issuer of the main reserve currency, its power is growing, it starts a war for the redivision of the world, and becomes a leading world power. Now there is no war, and the collapse of the American economy is also not expected, and therefore there is no reason to believe that the dollar will give up its place to the euro, bitcoin or yuan.
Unless a war breaks out with the participation of the main claimant countries for the title of the new issuer. Or, if the country the modern issuer of the reserve currency does not lose in this war...