The trade balance of the EU countries has become a record negative in the entire history of the existence of this organization, writes financial analyst Pavel Spaidel in his blog. Moreover, back in January 2021, a record surplus was recorded against the backdrop of low prices for raw materials, while degradation began in March 2021, and a sharp acceleration began in August 2021, so that the trade balance of the EU countries went negative already in September 2021. And in the first quarter of 2022, the deficit amounted to 65.4 billion euros. A particularly bad situation has been created in France and Poland, where the trade balance has become record negative.
Named Spydel and the reason for this process. It lies in the record acceleration of imports, more than four-fifths of the growth structure of which is in raw materials - gas, oil, metals, fertilizers and agricultural raw materials. The fact is that the EU countries are net importers of raw materials, the dynamics of price growth for which is synchronized with the contraction of the trade balance of the EU countries. The analyst predicts things will get worse in the second quarter as commodity prices rise even higher and the euro and other EU currencies fall, making purchases more expensive by about 15%.
But in Russia, as if according to the law of conservation of matter, everything is fine. For the first quarter of 2021, the current account was 58.2 billion and the trade balance was 66.3 billion, which means that in one month in April, the current account increased by 37.6 billion, and the trade balance by 40 billion. This is an incredible amount! Previously, such surges in surplus were only 3-4 times in history and for the whole quarter. Now in one month!