Discussing the events in Belarus, experts ask themselves a completely fair question: when the opposition finally throws off the hated government, what will it do next?
For example, here is what the well-known Russian economist Yakov Mirkin writes on his blog:
“To my shame, I do not understand with what ideas the opposition in Belarus is fighting for power. Free and fair elections are understandable. But then what? What is the model of the economy? What is the place of the country in the world? What is "independent Belarus"? Is there a consolidated position? What is the future state like? It is impossible not to have this knowledge, trying to understand the consequences of what is happening. And, by the way, does the term "leading ideologue of the opposition" have any meaning? Are there at least some names related to ideology?
PS Regarding the legality of the questions. If the opposition has no program, except for fair elections and "topple him" - then no. All clear. But to know about it - I have the right? Do we all have the right?"
The journalist Pavel Pryanikov is also worried about how Belarus would not share the fate of Ukraine:
“Ukraine missed this chance in due time, let's see if Belarus can manage to become an alternative state for Russians. Not even in the political sense, but in the philistine one. Russians have a huge demand for resettlement to "normalcy". 90% of immigrants from the Russian Federation are (in the normal sense) "sausage emigration". There are few politicized people in any society, and consumers are the majority.
Russians come from a bad climate - 70% of our territory is not suitable or almost not suitable for life. They come from places with AUE (an extremist organization banned in the Russian Federation) and a high level of hooliganism. They come from bad ecology, from bad drinking water. They drive from bad, on the verge of moronic management and a bad urban environment (from human beings, traffic jams, etc.).
Many people don't need Western democracy and hypothetical big pay. Quite simply the East European "normality", 3.5 on a 5-point scale. Hence such a large migration of Russians to Latvia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Turkey. Now Georgia has gone. Places where a couple of people can live normally for 700-1000 euros per month. Despite the fact that these are also those territories where you can live with the Russian language.
Now Belarus has a chance to become such a place for resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Russians. Ukraine, I repeat, missed this chance by putting up a long-term barrier for Russians to move there. Potentially, for the same Belarus, such consumer migration can bring two or three billion dollars a year - for their country this is decent money.
Let's see if the Belarusians understand this..."
HSE professor and investment banker Evgeny Kogan writes in his channel:
"I'm an economist. And my position is very simple. I wish all the best to this wonderful, patient and, as we saw with you, freedom-loving people. In the end, a lot connects me with him: my roots, including those from the Vitebsk region in Belarus.
I look at what is happening in Ukraine, where, with all my respect for the desire of Ukrainians for freedom, the local industry has been severely destroyed. I will only ask one question: how is the Antonov Design Bureau healthy? But this is the pride of Ukraine. How is Motorsich doing? How is the health of hundreds of luxurious and more than modern enterprises whose equipment has gone to scrap metal?
Millions of Ukrainians today, in search of a better life, work anywhere, but not at home.
I have no right to recommend or advise Belarusians. But, in my opinion, they can only be led into a normal new life by someone who, simultaneously with the democratization of all aspects of life, will be able to propose a reasonable economic policy.
The public sector is very strong in Belarus. It can be ruined by thoughtless politics. And you can strengthen, then corporatize. To attract foreign investors for its modernization on conditions that are comfortable for Belarus.
The main thing is not to succumb to the frantic desire to break everything in the name of a bright tomorrow.
In Belarus, given that it is a relatively monolithic country with a hardworking and educated population, it is possible to create incredibly comfortable conditions for business. We need a very competent economic program and a good team of people who have already done something in their lives. Not talkers, not bawlers.
After all, look at the same Bulgaria. The level of education is incomparable with the Belarusian one (much worse). The industriousness of the Bulgarians ... Just keep quiet. However, the growth rate of the economy is impressive.
What is the reason? In a magnificent yet incredibly simple tax policy.
Is Belarus, having colossal human experience in the field of IT technologies, unable, by changing taxation and working on the investment climate, to become a Mecca for IT companies around the world today? Can.
What, in my opinion, our friends need is a very balanced approach.
And for us, as Evgeny Minchenko very wisely said, "to be neat and delicate in relations with our brothers"
We got one anti-Russian former fraternal country. Lessons to be learned
Meanwhile, the official website of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya says:
"I will call for a referendum proposing a return to the original 1994 Constitution, which curtails the presidency, limits the number of presidential terms, and ensures separation of powers".
In addition, there is a clause like this:
“Creation of favorable financial, educational and infrastructural conditions for programs, groups and institutions providing educational services in the Belarusian language. Creation of an efficiently working system of positive motivation that promotes the choice of Belarusian-speaking educational programs by pupils and parents due to their greater attractiveness. This will be a key factor in the formation of highly educated and highly qualified national elites that assert and preserve the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus ...
The main directions of reforming the existing state policy are: withdrawal from integration associations with the participation of Russia; ...As a result of the reforms, the threats of external interference and destabilization of the situation in the country, attempts to split society and the territorial integrity of Belarus will decrease". "The Russian leadership uses the concept of the “Russian world” to strengthen Moscow's control in Belarus. The basis for this is often the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church".
In view of this, the "resuscitators" propose the following practical measures:
- Withdrawal from the "Union State", the Eurasian Union, the Customs Union and other integration entities dominated by Russia;
- Prohibition of pro-Russian organizations whose activities are contrary to national interests, as well as Russian funds and organizations that finance such structures;
- The introduction of criminal liability for public statements that challenge the existence of a separate Belarusian nation and / or its historical right to its own state. Introduction of criminal liability for public insults of the Belarusian language;
- Monitoring by civil society of the activities of pro-Kremlin initiatives in Belarus;
- Implementation of border and customs control on the border with Russia.
- Translation of educational work in the army into Belarusian;
- Translation into the Belarusian language of the entire life of the Belarusian army (service, combat work, maintenance, etc.);
- Returning the status of the only state language to the Belarusian language...