Managed poverty: why the country's authorities keep per capita GDP at $ 12 thousand level

With the start of the import substitution program, as well as the economic crisis that has lasted since 2014, the availability of food for most Russians is decreasing, the work of Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Ivan Ushachev and the head of the department shows. Department of Agrarian Policy and Forecasting Development of the Agroindustrial Complex of the VNIIESKh RAS of Andrey Kolesnikov, quoted by the Proeconomics channel:

“From 2014 to 2020, food prices increased by 51.7%, while the average per capita income was only 34.3%.

Huge differentiation by stratum: in the first decile group (bottom 10%), the share of spending on food purchases is 47.3%, while in the tenth group (top 10%) it is 16.2%.

The volume and structure of protein consumption differ significantly. In the tenth group, the daily consumption exceeds the consumption in the first decile group of proteins by 55.9%, including those of animal origin by 85.3%. This, in turn, means that the nutritional quality in the latter group is significantly higher than in the former. An indirect confirmation of this is the significant difference in the cost of 1 kcal in the first and tenth decile groups. The difference is 87.2%.

Rational consumption norms for most basic food products were achieved only in the ninth and tenth decile groups (i.e., the top 20% of the population). This suggests that in order to achieve the indicators of rational consumption, households' monetary income should be at the level of the ninth group, i.e. about 100 thousand rubles per month, while in the first group the monetary income is 27.960 rubles, and in the second 38.911 rubles.

In these conditions, it is extremely important to increase support for the least protected segments of the population through the introduction of a program for providing targeted food assistance to low-income citizens and the implementation of a food sharing system.

According to our estimates, the purchase of 20% of the population with minimum incomes of food products to the level of food consumption in the 3rd decile will require 430 billion rubles. in 2019 prices. On average, the cost of a food certificate can be about 15 thousand rubles. per year, i.e. not less than 1300 rubles monthly (despite the fact that at present the monthly income deficit of the poor per 1 member of the household is 3403 rubles). Such support will not only raise the standard of living of the population, but also create additional demand for agricultural products and food in the amount of 300 billion rubles".

The graph from the article "Economic availability of food for the population of the Russian Federation" indicates that the low purchasing power of the population can be judged by GDP per capita. So, in 2010 this indicator was USD 11,446.59 per person, and in 2019 USD 11,162.65 per person.

Here you can clearly see the milestone - 2010-11, from which the country's authorities began to try to prevent people's incomes from going beyond a certain level - $ 12 thousand per capita GDP. There is no growth, since then $ 13-14 thousand per capita GDP begins, or the so-called “Lipset Threshold, after which the demands of people grow. As we can see, the “managed poverty” strategy works, ”explains economist Dmitry Prokofiyev.

Another noteworthy table from the same article, from which it can be seen that 10% of the poorest citizens of the Russian Federation spend 47% of "disposable resources" on food - as in Africa. But the 10% of the most well-to-do expenses on food take 16% of the budget - as in Europe.