A bad peace instead of a heinous war: what will Russia's recognition of the DPR and LPR lead to

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A bad peace instead of a heinous war: what will Russia's recognition of the DPR and LPR lead to
A bad peace instead of a heinous war: what will Russia's recognition of the DPR and LPR lead to
21 January, 12:57Photo: Фото: Соцсети
Apparently, the Kremlin has long prepared a “peaceful” solution to the “Ukrainian problem”.

As the media have already reported, the Communist Party faction submitted to the State Duma a draft resolution on an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.

The leader of A Just Russia, Sergey Mironov, immediately announced that his faction was ready to support the project. LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, of course, too. All this leaves no doubt that such an option was prepared long ago in the Kremlin, and the initiative to promote it was deliberately handed over to the so-called parliamentary "opposition", thus, as if removing responsibility from the Russian authorities. Here is the speaker of the State Duma Volodin wrote in his blog:

“I think that the deputies from United Russia – they have repeatedly spoken out on this topic – are also concerned about the issue of protecting the lives of Russian citizens and compatriots living on the territory of the DPR and LPR. The issue proposed for consideration is very serious and responsible. In this regard, it would be right to hold consultations with the leaders of the factions next week and discuss this initiative. Then, based on the results, to consider the issue at the Council of the State Duma. We see President Zelensky ignoring the Minsk agreements. NATO wants to occupy Ukraine. Both one and the other can turn into a tragedy. We must not allow this.

One thing is absolutely clear: solutions to ensure the security of our citizens and compatriots in the DPR and LPR must be sought..."

Political scientist Konstantin von Eggert explained why this initiative appeared precisely at that time: “I will assume that the Kremlin knows that Moscow will not receive any security guarantees, no right to veto NATO decisions. And he is preparing to present Ukraine and the West with a new fait accompli - if not legal recognition, then "taking under the protection" of the LPR and DPR and the legalization of the Russian military presence on this territory of Ukraine, which is actually controlled by Moscow.

Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov believes that by doing so, the Kremlin decided to show itself as a “peacemaker”:

“It seems that the decision to recognize the DPR and LPR has been made. The activity of the Communist Party here can be explained by two reasons. Perhaps the Kremlin wants to abdicate part of the responsibility, showing that this is not its initiative, that a certain broad consensus has developed in society - like during the annexation of Crimea. That is, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation could simply be asked to voice this idea. Since it does not contradict the position of the party, it is not difficult for that party to do so. It cannot be ruled out, however, that the Communists themselves simply decided to play ahead of the curve. They understand that everything is moving towards recognition, so they are trying to demonstrate that it is they who set the agenda. This is not the first time the Communist Party has tried to seize the initiative from the hands of the regime. The year before last, during the vote on amendments to the Constitution, she organized her own - alternative - referendum, to which she submitted her own formulations.

In general, one must understand that, apart from recognizing the DPR and LPR, the Kremlin now, in fact, has no other options. The West has ignored the ultimatum, so it is necessary to respond somehow. The choice, in general, is not so rich - either immediately try to capture Kiev, or limit yourself to Donbass and Lugansk.

We decided to do the second one. It seems that they answered, but on the other hand, there is nothing to introduce sanctions for, they didn’t attack…”

Politician Aleksey Melnikov assessed the risks of such a development of events:

“Indeed, we need a way out of the impasse into which the Russian leadership has driven itself with a stupid ultimatum (it is interesting to find out who came up with all this there). Although there is a way out - to move on to negotiations on a new INF treaty, exercises, withdrawal of troops, etc. But this is not yet for the ruling minds.

And now, the UG KPRF, charged with doping, appeals to the head of state to “recognize” the “DPR-LPR”. "Initiative from below". Like Tereshkova with zeroing.

This is, to put it mildly, a possible alternative to war. It is difficult to say whether a decision has been made or whether the UG-KPRF has been instructed to put spare "rails" just in case. In fact, the option of "recognition" should be excluded.

Look at the "recognition" in 2008 by our country of the "independence" of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Soon 15 years have passed. Two stagnant territories, with no prospects for recognition by the world, with no development opportunities, existing only with the economic and military support of Russia. Over the past years, the Russian authorities have not solved the problem in any way. It would have been better to revoke recognition and come to an agreement with Georgia and the torn territories, to resolve the issue peacefully and reliably. Ignoring the imaginary "loss of face", but proceeding only from the interests of sustainable peace on the borders of Russia. The same will happen with the "recognized" "DNR-LNR". Perhaps even worse. Therefore, it would be better to leave everything as it is for now. Do not multiply problems.

But the best solution is to transfer these territories to Ukraine, withdraw our troops from there, and take away those who want to leave. Do it as soon as possible and without any conditions. At the same time, one must understand that the investigation of the crimes committed there, responsibility cannot be avoided. As well as compensation for damages.

If this is not done, the same decision will have to be made later. It is possible that in the worst situation.

In general, this is the method of action of the current leadership - to lay "mines" for the future, to create problems for the next generation of leaders of the country.

There is no need to "recognize" the "DNR-LNR". Let those who come after Putin have one less problem…”

Network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan also believes that this option will create huge problems for Russia:

“The Communist Party called on Vladimir Putin to continue the “gathering of Russian lands.” The communists propose to start this process with the official recognition of the DPR and LPR, noting that much more decisive steps are possible.

Question: why collect land if you are not able to equip your country, Zyuganovites prefer not to ask. If only because they are also like power. And this question is inevitably addressed to them. And the chest opens simply: they simply cannot make a normal life here, turning it into a garbage dump. Well, any garbage heap inevitably begins to grow. Exuding stench and garbage. Remove it - but why, if you can just wander off to the side and shit there ... "

Publicist Marina Shapovalova is sure that Ukraine should have come to terms with the loss of these territories long ago:

“Very carefully, bowing a hundred times so as not to hurt the sick pride of the stubborn, but not once, but constantly for seven and a half years, I wrote that the best option for Ukraine was to immediately recognize the independence of the LDNR. Just as the FRG once recognized the GDR, laying in the constitution the possibility of reunification in an indefinite future. On this basis, maintain all economically necessary contacts, accept refugees from there as their own citizens, etc. There is a good historical precedent, and its outcome is known.

And now, if it does happen that Ukraine is forced to execute "Minsk-2", it will become obvious why I was right.

There is still a chance that Zelensky (or I don’t know who else) will be able to convince Western partners that the execution of Minsk-2 is impossible for Ukraine. Pray for this, Ukrainians. If it doesn’t work, I can only express my condolences..."

But analyst Mikhail Kondakov expressed a very sensible idea about such a development of events:

“It would work if Ukraine received the Marshall Plan and showed the same economic recovery as post-war Germany. And in the existing realities - just capitulation to force and the creation of a springboard for further penetration of the so-called. Russian world. Crimea has been handed over, and you see a lot of refugees from Crimea to Ukraine?”

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