Natalya Zubarevich: "The crisis will have a slow exit"Analytics
Accounting reports open a top view and this is a “terrible landscape of terrible risks”. The state is stingy with real support for the population, but this reality in Russia has not yet changed, Natalia Zubarevich believes.
The chief researcher at the Institute for Social Policy of the HSE told about this on the YouTube channel of the Sakharov Center.
“We do not have any operational monitoring statistics. This is a real disaster for experts.
My "idiot's dream": how to get into any employment service? I want to see how all these barriers work. The fact that they work - we see by the results. But how exactly? How is this system designed to maximize the cutting off of people from any kind of help? Whatever the state says, from the point of view of people, this is so.
Nevertheless, I cannot agree with deeply respected economists, with people of international reputation who say that money needs to be distributed.
The fact is that somehow they don’t even mind: in what situation will our budget be in the next year or two? How much income will fall out of it?
In total, if we take into account extra-budgetary funds - social insurance, a pension fund that is fed from the budget, and this, for a minute, a third of all money, if not 40%, it becomes clear that there will be a wild failure in the budgets of the federal subjects. This will result in a federal budget that loses 1.5 trillion of oil and gas revenues and somewhere else 2 trillion of non-oil and gas revenues, all sorts of duties and so on.
And in fact then it’s worth saying, guys, if we distributed this money, it means that we will make consolidation, in short, sequestration of budget expenditures, since it has dried up.
According to the worst assessment, if we take the federal and regional budgets and all non-budget funds — pension, social insurance, medical insurance — the risks amount to about 8 trillion rubles. Eight!
This is the worst case scenario. That which recognizes Siluanov. By the way, I recommend everyone to read his interview of May 6 in Vedomosti. The position of the state is so clearly expressed in it, it is not even cynical there, it is just strictly accounting.
From it it is clear: we need to reduce the result; Yes, we will borrow, and it will be very decent money; Yes, we are part of the National Welfare Fund.
But look, already in April, the fall in tax on profit of the budget of the subjects is 40%. During the crisis of 2009, when bundles slowed down metallurgical plants, it was minus 40%, but by the year. But for personal income tax now - and this is the most important tax in the country, except for Sakhalin and the Tyumen region - already minus 14%. And you understand that in May it will only get worse. And in June, too, we will creep out anyhow, because demand will not recover.
According to consensus estimates, the fall in GDP is 5%, the decline in household incomes is a fork, such a modest percentage, the middle will be, somewhere around 8%. And this means that we will not consume 8% less.
You know the property of human nature. When income is compressed, the first thing a person saves on is those same market services.
Many will not save on vodka, but yes, to get a haircut, get a haircut. There are scissors - the mother-in-law will cut. Here you go!
Therefore, the crisis will be with a very slow exit. And this means that revenues, including at the budget level, will grow rather slowly.
I was not too lazy and looked: it turns out that the associations of small and medium-sized enterprises last year paid a total of one and a half trillion rubles of taxes and payments to extra-budgetary funds.
So: do you think they have a moral right to say: “Guys, it’s bad for us now, help me?” Of course! Just how do they help them? Deferred taxes, deferred rent ... And this is if you are from the state, and if you rent from a private trader? "Well, you guys, then somehow agree." This is what happens.
The quintessence of what is happening for me finally cleared up to what episode. When I read about it, I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry.
Now separate production, construction projects and so on will be opened. And there it will be necessary to undergo mandatory control - a test for coronavirus.
And you know, at whose expense? At the expense of the employer
You bastards, you want to open up, you want to start earning? Pay up!
This is real cynicism.
Accounting reports are a top view, and it is a terrible landscape. We see the terrible risks of the macro landscape.
Now the regions have added 200 billion rubles. This is about nothing. The entire volume of transfer to the subjects of the Federation last year - 2.6 trillion. Remember arithmetic at school? This money will fly away instantly!
And now they are trying to keep some budget balance and so on from their macro position. But from below, the first thing we see is hellish barriers! And the second is to minimize the actual money paid.
When you are told that 6, 5% of GDP is spent, you relax. Because the main thing that "sits" there is the plugging of budget holes and non-budget funds.
This is not for you people! This is balancing those minuses that have formed.
And they also talk about 2.8% of GDP - this is, as it were, for business and people. But if you take out tax measures and privileges from there, and so on, what happens with the money? And look, what a charm it turns out: for the whole health and sanitary epidemic - 200 billion rubles; for social support, including payments to the unemployed - 250 billion rubles.
Last year, by comparison, all unemployment benefits amounted to 52 billion rubles for the whole country. And now - 250. And for the unemployed, the wording is "including." From which I conclude: the registered unemployment rate will increase, it is good if three times, from 1 to 3%.
Well, how much beer - drink so much. How much is reserved - so much you will register.
Further, the support of the regions will amount to 200 billion rubles. Extra-budgetary funds - this is the same hole - 400 billion rubles, that is, twice as much as the regions!
But most of all I was pleased with the figure voiced by the respected Minister, regarding the support of economic sectors: about 800 billion rubles more. It was noted: first of all, on the subjects of small and medium-sized businesses.
My leftover hair stood on end when I read it. How?! If only yesterday it was announced that there would be 81 billion rubles for the entire SME, and the total amount would be 800 ?!
Question: where is the rest? Who ?! This story is shrouded in darkness.
Total: the state is stingy with real support. The state is aimed at plugging holes in the budget and extra-budgetary funds. This is a given and it will not change. And we know the reasons perfectly.
None of us can electively tell the state the real “fe!” in response to the minimum support that has been demonstrated to us.
Developed countries help their people more, not only because they are richer - and they, of course, richer - but also because such "no help" will have consequences in the form of troubles with the electorate.
And there it is very well understood. In Russia, everything is arranged differently.
But how it works is what we have”