The weakness of the "Power of Siberia-2": experts consider this project a gamble
Gazprom’s new project looks very promising only from the point of view of corruption interests.
The fact that Gazprom has begun work on the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline project, said Alexey Miller, chairman of the board of the company: Power of Siberia-2 should become the basis for exporting 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually through Mongolia to China, with this raw material from Yamal they plan to deliver also to Europe.
The goal of the project is to connect the western gas transportation infrastructure with the eastern part of Russia, as well as provide gas to Eastern Siberia, RIA Novosti reports.
Analysts did not hesitate to comment on this very controversial news, especially after the failure of Nord Stream-2.
So, the channel Gas-Father writes:
“Gazprom is launching Operation Successor. On the eve of Miller announced the start of work on the development of project documentation for another “Power of Siberia” with a capacity of 50 billion m3 to China, already through Mongolia. Previously, Putin supported the idea.
If we discard the economic component of the project (and it is already an occasion for discussion), then Miller hopes to draw the traditional clientele of megastrocks: Timchenko and Rotenberg into the process of soft transfer of power to state corporations with the new gas pipeline. The current contract of Alexey Borisovich himself ends in May 2021, exactly one year later. He is already considered a corporate long-liver; by the time he leaves, he will be 20 years old as he heads Gazprom. New five years, it will be a bust even in the Russian traditions of managerial longevity.
Now Miller needs to put on the flag a new initiative that will interest Putin’s entourage, and confirm that the successor as head of Gazprom will ensure the implementation of all agreements.
As before, we are closely watching the head of Gazprom Invest, Vyacheslav Tyurin. He has already assembled a team of the best around the entire perimeter of Gazprom and fully controls all construction and service budgets..."
The network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan turned his attention to a completely different problem that these plans will certainly create:
“When the addict stops“ injecting ”the drug, he simply increases the dose. When the model of the "energy superpower" is covered with a copper basin, the logic leads to the decision to build a new gig project to export new volumes of gas. All together, this is called "remove Russia from the oil and gas needle".
It will never end. While there will be at least a liter of gas in the country that can be pumped abroad, the current ones will do this in spite of everything else. In this sense, everything is in order: to assume that a thief who never knew how and did not want to do anything other than theft will stop stealing is simply ridiculous.
Seriously considering the “Power of Siberia-2” project from the point of view of Russia's national interests is just as ridiculous, since the country's basic economic problem is the bankrupt economic model as such. Therefore, all activities within the framework of this model are criminal in relation to national interests.
The meaning of the new project, of course, is only to enrich the contractors by hanging new burdens on the country - tax exemptions or even direct subsidies to Gazprom, which is already openly going bankrupt. Bankers are doing roughly the same thing when a bank goes to the bottom - they divide assets into liquid and garbage, leave garbage on the balance sheet, and all liquid are feverishly thrown as far as possible. And sooner or later, a moment comes when visitors are met by a caretaker, closed doors and mountains of paper trash around office shredders. And then the plot develops according to one of two plots - either the banker shared with whom it is needed, and they seem to be looking for him, but without enthusiasm, or the banker “throws” respected people who take him out of the plow and shake his own out of it. With compensation for anxiety and other emotional experiences. Considering how Gazprom enriches contractors who, as one friend, themselves know who, respected people in this case will not be offended.
The economic feasibility of the "Power of Siberia-2" looks very doubtful. Gas will have to be supplied to the Chinese desert, which is sparsely populated and does not have sufficient industrial potential that can "digest" such volumes of gas. However, as a backup route in the event of a disruption in China's regular supply through LNG supplies, both Siberian Forces look quite good for China. The fact that both pipelines will mostly be idle or work at incomplete capacity does not bother the Chinese at all, since these losses will, of course, be attributed to the supplier.
It should be borne in mind that China has practically no underground gas storage facilities, which means that the damping (smoothing) system of seasonal consumption fluctuations is extremely poorly developed. In this case, the availability of reserve capacities for China seems to be an acceptable replacement for UGS facilities, especially since, again, the expenditure part will be transferred to the supplier.
That is - for China, the project "Power of Siberia" (both the first and second) is quite profitable. In the political sense, including. If the United States tries to threaten to cut off supplies, China will have at least some, but a reserve source of supply. For Russia - of course, there is no benefit in the project. Since the Chinese market is oversaturated with gas, and even the "Power of Siberia-1" has already encountered this problem. Well, do not forget about the severe "drawdown" of the Chinese economy in connection with the current epidemic. The calculation of gas consumption growth is based on the growth model of the Chinese economy. This model ordered a long life, and now the challenge for China is to maintain at least the current level, preventing it from turning down. Moreover, the export model of the Chinese economy is also bursting at the seams due to the global "drawdown" of the global economy.
In this regard, any economic calculations of project effectiveness will be based on a number of variables, which are simply not possible to evaluate today. When the margin is estimated at 3-5-7%, and the uncertainties give an error in the calculations at the level of plus or minus 15-20 percent, the project itself can be estimated with just one word - an adventure. And rude and frank. A gamble that is obvious to the leadership of Gazprom even with its monstrously low professional level. And since they go to it, then economic calculations, efficiency, payback and other unimportant things are not at all interesting to him. But something completely different interests.
And from the point of view of corruption interests, just such a situation looks like a pure Klondike, since it allows burying billions and billions under completely plausible and very solid justifications.
With any normal company, the adventurism of management can (and should) be stopped by shareholders. It is their money that can burn out in the end. But Gazprom is not a normal company. As long as the shareholders are paid absolutely fantastic dividends, they will neither be interested in nor care about any obviously fraudulent decisions of managers. Therefore, there are no problems from this side and will not be.
In the end, all the problems of the full program will be received by the Russian people, who will eventually lose their gas industry. The bankruptcy of Gazprom under such management is a matter of time. And any bankruptcy always ends with the same thing - the redistribution of property. And today, to call Gazprom "a national treasure" is a very strong sin against the truth. At the end of the journey, the word "national" will finally disappear from this slogan. Just because otherwise such adventures do not end..."