Experts are confused: either the first wave of the covid-19 is growing, or has the second one already arrived?
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Experts are confused: either the first wave of the covid-19 is growing, or has the second one already arrived?

21 June , 23:51
In Ukraine, the second wave of the pandemic was announced, while in the regions of Russia the first is still gaining strength

Ukraine officially announced the start of the second wave of coronavirus. This was announced at a cabinet meeting by Prime Minister Shmygal. In this regard, it was decided to allocate an additional 8 billion hryvnias for additional payments to doctors.

Earlier, the chief sanitary doctor of Ukraine Lyashko said that during the second wave "the doctors will work according to a different strategy so that they do not have to impose strict quarantine in Ukraine."

An increase in the number of cases is observed in many other countries: record growth rates were recorded in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, India, Iraq, Egypt and several others.

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The situation in Russia cannot but disturb. So, the main freelance infectious disease specialist of the Oryol region, the head of the regional hepatological center of the city hospital named after S.P. Botkina Victoria Adonyeva said in an interview that the situation - contrary to the statements of the authorities about a certain plateau - is getting worse:

"We are growing. There will be no plateau. With airborne infections, when they say "plateau" - this causes some surprise, especially when epidemiologists and infectious diseases say it. In such infections, there is only growth and decline.

(...)

If growth continues, there will be no one to treat. You can deploy an infinite number of beds, but the beds have not cured anyone. Doctors treat, but they themselves become ill and are out of order. Doctors are already working to the limit. We, the infectious disease specialists have been living in this for three months now, the specialists involved have been working for a month, they were attracted as the growth started, but they also no longer have the strength. Our employees are swooning, because in such a heat it is very difficult to work in protective equipment. How many more they will endure, I do not know.

(...)

There is practically no help on any profile, because all hospitals work on cove. There is no one and nowhere to treat people from other diseases. People continue to die from stroke, heart attack, oncology. We have a lot of deaths from cerrosis, I am a hepatologist and I know this.

(...)

Putting us nowhere. I have 20 beds left and I’ll close the hospital today. Semashko is already closed, the TB clinic too. There are no more beds in the city.

Recently, 30-35 people arrived daily, and five to seven are written out so far and then not every day .... "

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It is curious against this background that some virologists have already begun to argue that in fact there is no pandemic, but there are local epidemics in each country with their own characteristics. For example, in Italy, the average age of the dead is 80 years, while the victims of covid under 60 were only about 1.5%.

In Russia, on the contrary, the age of the dead is noticeably lower, but mortality, in any case, according to official data, is one of the lowest in the world.

In addition, in Africa, mainly African and Hispanics die from coronavirus infection ...

Here's what neuroscientist Carl Freeston thinks about it. A few points from the scientist’s speech:

* There is some “dark immune matter” - a protective factor for 80% of the population.

* This means that the large difference between pandemic indicators in different countries - for example, in the UK and Germany - is not a defining consequence of different actions of governments, but is best explained by the differences between population groups, which make the proportion of susceptible people in Germany significantly less than the UK (and in Russia, perhaps even less, and indeed almost the least in the world);

* This fact also allows you to fundamentally change the strategy for quitting quarantine restrictions (instead of phasing out, you can cancel almost everything at once).

* The hypothesis of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is shared by major scientists, including Nobel laureate Michael Levitt.

* In approximately 30% of patients with mild to moderate symptoms, a significant amount of antibodies was not detected; this suggests that the patient’s immune system has some mechanism to eliminate the infection BEFORE antibody production begins.

* Politicians do not like the hypothesis at all (it turns out that it was not they who saved the people, but he himself was saved as he could; but it was they who ruined the economy).

In conclusion, the expert makes the following forecast:

* The road to equilibrium will be relatively flat with a small bump (second wave) about seven months after the initial outbreak (that is, in November). This second wave can last about five weeks and can be complicated by the arrival of seasonal flu.

* Endemic equilibrium will be reached early next year. COVID-19 will account for a small proportion of deaths — with mortality rates that are about three times less than seasonal flu.

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