Director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis Igor Nikolaev drew attention to the fact that “in the draft budget of the Pension Fund of Russia for 2021 and the planning period of 2022 and 2023, it is envisaged that the transfer from the federal budget to the Pension Fund in 2021 will amount to more than 3.5 trillion. rubles (38% of all the Fund's income). A transfer is a transfer of budgetary funds, because the Pension Fund does not have enough own income... it will be not just a big, but actually a record deficit of the Pension Fund budget in recent years.
And further Igor Nikolaev notes that about this fact, “I somehow immediately remember, perhaps, the main argument in defense of the decision to raise the retirement age - to raise, like, it is necessary to have something to pay pensions from so that the budget deficit of the Pension Fund does not increase... In fact, the following happened: the decision to raise the retirement age was made in 2018, and in 2021 the budget deficit of the Pension Fund not only did not decrease, but remained at a very high level. …Elementary logic forces us to conclude that the retirement age was raised in vain”.
If we talk in general about the deficit of the state budget of the Russian Federation, then according to the budget plans of the government of the Russian Federation for 2021-2023, the domestic public debt of Russia by the end of 2023 will increase to 21.3% of GDP, which will amount to 28.3 trillion. rubles. The current annual cost of servicing this debt will increase from 900 billion rubles in 2020 to more than 1.6 trillion. rubles in 2023, that is, almost doubled.
As the Finans.ru portal regularly reports in its numerous analytical materials for the last quarter, now the buyers of the absolute mass of “securities” issued by the Russian government are by no means foreign “investors”, including financial speculators, but the largest Russian banks.
The source of funds that they "lend" to the government of the Russian Federation are four sources: funds of the government of the Russian Federation placed by the government of the Russian Federation in these banks; funds of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (loans from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as a rule, that is, this is such an internal "carry-trade" - enrichment of banks on the difference in interest rates); funds of individuals (population); funds of Russian legal entities.
Summarizing the methods of financing the state debt of the Russian Federation, we obtain two main methods - a new "emission" of the ruble stock from the state budget and the withdrawal of the ruble stock from the Russian economy to the state budget. These are essential signs of a pyramid scheme or, in other words, a financial bubble. These are not all the essential signs of a financial pyramid or bubble, but these are the key ones.
Financial pyramids or financial bubbles inevitably burst, collapse.
When does the state budget become a financial bubble (financial pyramid)? Then, when the budget crisis reaches its climax, first, that is, on the very eve of the budget collapse, and secondly. Something similar happened on the eve of the "Pavlovian reform" in the USSR, and on the eve of the budget and financial collapse that occurred in August 1998.
But the head of the government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin recently cheerfully and confidently, as if "with a blue eye", said that the Russian economy has the necessary margin of safety, and by the end of next year it will enter the trajectory of sustainable growth, annually growing at a rate of at least 3% annually starting in 2022.
Associate Professor of the Department of Financial Management of the PRUE GV Plekhanova Ayaz Aliyev, assessing the state and prospects of the Russian economy, also drew attention to the following: “Victory over the pandemic, a return to the maximum values of production capacities, a decrease in unemployment, stability or moderate growth in the oil market, a decrease in risks in the global economy can and lead to increased income. However, now there are no prerequisites for such a scenario. Everything [in the Russian Federation and its economy] happens the other way around".
Director of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO) Boris Kagarlitsky added to this: “The level of investment in Russia is lower than it is necessary to ensure simple reproduction. In the long term, this means economic degradation. Now we see another important trend - in a number of sectors, especially in small and medium business, there is a decrease in investments. Without radical changes, which no one is proposing to us, there is no reason to hope for a sharp economic recovery".
Assessing the statements of high-ranking officials of the state power of the Russian Federation on the social and economic situation in the Russian Federation and the prospects for its development, Boris Kagarlitsky noted : “If you closely follow the statements of the Russian authorities, especially the ministers of the economic bloc, you will see how many achievements and wonderful prospects they promised us... And somehow nothing has come true yet. Therefore, speaking primitively, they simply lie to us".
Only a very lazy one did not write about the systematic regular inconsistency of reality, to put it mildly, or, "if we speak primitively," only the completely lazy one did not write about the regular lies of the statistics bodies of the Russian Federation - a well-grounded analysis of such "inconsistencies" made by experts in the official data of Rosstat every time appears within two or three days after the next official announcement by Rosstat on practically any socially significant issue.
Only completely lazy leaders of political parties, political scientists, experts in electoral law, candidates for deputies, observers and public figures, except, perhaps, official representatives of the state authorities of the Russian Federation, also did not write about the system of falsifications during elections of all levels held in the Russian Federation. , "United Russia" and election commissions.
But what are all election results obtained by means of falsification , "if we speak primitively"? “If we speak primitively”, then this is the same lie. But only this "inconsistency with reality" or, "speaking primitively", lies are asserted as truth instead of truth under the guise of truth now on another issue (subject), which, undoubtedly, has no less social significance than all economic and other subjects. life of society and each of its members.
“...we do not believe, I personally do not believe this Investigative Committee for a single second , because ..., for example. Therefore, they do not trust, "is far from being the first time, he said the journalist Maksim Shevchenko live on" Echo of Moscow".
But does Maxim Shevchenko alone think so and, based on this, lives?
Look at the non-state media and social media records that refer to the assessments of the activities of almost all "power" and "judicial" structures in the Russian Federation, is it not the same essentially the same conviction dominates there, striving to turn into an "obvious" truth, if became such?
And remember the experience of your loved ones and acquaintances, as well as your experience of communicating with representatives of these structures, as well as those assessments that have long taken the character of a widespread stable public opinion - is this experience and these assessments not in essence, like Maxim Shevchenko?
There is no need to list all socially significant subjects of everyday life in the Russian Federation, for which there is the same “discrepancy” between words and deeds, between official assessments of reality and the reality that it is for all those who do not belong to the circle of officials.
Anyone can do this, if he is not too lazy, with confirmation by numerous real examples, which will not be number (“you don’t have enough numbers in your head”, as Lopakhin said in “They fought for the Motherland” by MA Sholokhov).
Nobel Laureate in Economics Douglas North in the book "Institutions, Institutional Changes and the Functioning of the Economy" (published by the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow in 1997), along with all other points, showed the key role of transaction costs not only in the competitiveness of the national economy, but also in its functioning at all.
In particular, he points out that the lower the level of trust in economically significant information received by participants in economic relations from other participants, the less they can rely on formal enforcement mechanisms, the higher the transaction costs.
In other words, systematic lies, imposed and imposed from above as the dominant rules and norms of everyday behavior of everyone and everything in the Russian Federation, makes it mandatory for each participant in public relations, firstly, the creation and reproduction of their own mechanism for collecting reliable information on all issues that have value for daily life.
And, secondly, systematic lies, imposed and imposed from above as the dominant rules and norms of everyday behavior of everyone and everything in the Russian Federation, makes it mandatory for each participant in public relations to create their own mechanisms to ensure the fulfillment of obligations that all other participants in public relations have to him...
Moreover, such own mechanisms for ensuring the fulfillment of obligations must be created for each participant in social relations for each individual case, because it is no longer possible to create a general mechanism so that then only to reproduce it.
Why is it already impossible?
First of all, because social mechanisms , and they are general and universal mechanisms, no longer work from the word at all, and do not work because of mistrust , which is an inevitable consequence of systematic lies.
But also because lies, systematically imposed from above instead of the truth under the guise of truth and as truth, turning lies into a universal way of protecting the population from those "tops" who systematically impose it, enters into everyday life, a habit, becoming a universal, total way behavior on the territory of such a state.
Having become the de facto norm of everyday behavior in society, total systematic lies, destroys all human social ties and human relations between people, bringing the atomization of society to its extreme and extremely aggressive form - to the "war of all against all".
According to Thomas Hobbes, the state of "war of all against all" is characteristic of the "natural", that is, for the "pre-social" state - this is the state of total animality. And this inevitably, necessary and inevitably increases transaction costs, turning them into prohibitive , that is, at such costs that are no longer materially raised for the majority of participants in economic relations.
Becoming prohibitive, transaction costs necessarily, inevitably and inevitably slow down all economic processes, up to their complete stop - the social production of material goods and the reproduction of society and man as a whole stop.
Already only for the reasons considered, a systematic total lie is not just the destruction of social production of material goods. This is a systematic total destruction of all reproduction of the life of society and of every person, that is, a systematic total destruction of the person and society.
But what is the systematic total destruction of society and man? This is a total (= religious) war, the actual goal and result of which is the destruction of the enemy's social (social) quality.
And what social quality alone makes a person a person? Humanity. That is, exactly what, by specifically distinguishing man from animals and once and for all singling him out from animals ("expulsion from paradise"), only produced and reproduces man as a man.
Systematic total lies, implanted and imposed from above as a “natural norm of everyday life”, is, therefore, a systematic total destruction of man as a person.
Therefore, from the point of view of the essence of those definitions that are given in international conventions, which are officially recognized as binding also in the Russian Federation, a systematic total lie is nothing other than genocide of man and society.