An extremely unpleasant statement for Russia was made at the end of last week by Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi, saying that “no agreements are implemented without the permission of American officials. The goal is not to fall into secondary sanctions.” This means that the Kazakh authorities are effectively refusing to trade with Russia in circumvention of sanctions imposed by the West, despite Moscow's requests to arrange import supplies. But officially “friendly” Kazakhstan is a member of all economic, political and military unions organized by Russia. Experts of the channel "Metodichka" complain in this regard that Kazakhstan is increasingly reminiscent of Poland and the Baltic states, and already with its practical actions, and not only with the rhetoric of its leadership.
This applies not only to the economy. Recall that the same Mukhtar Tleuberdi, during the recent aggravation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, said that the authorities of Kazakhstan do not even discuss the issue of the possible dispatch of their peacekeepers, thereby making the country's participation in the CSTO very conditional.
At the same time, experts remind that when the fate of the Kazakh President Tokayev was at the beginning of 2022 a big question mark due to the unrest that swept the country, he “in a panic called for help from the CSTO troops.” True, almost immediately after the situation began to stabilize, he instantly refused the presence of Russian peacekeepers and a month later declared that he did not feel any debt or gratitude to Russia.
Now, all transactions of Russian and Kazakh companies that potentially violate sanctions are under the control of the European Union and America. It is with them that “regular consultations are being held”, and even a government working group has been created that is working to prevent the negative impact of anti-Russian sanctions on the economy and secondary sanctions.
This statement, according to Russian experts, raises doubts about the prospects for restoring imports to Russia. So far, parallel imports have been operating only on a very small scale. For example, the import of gadgets into our country without the consent of the right holders until recent weeks was possible only at the expense of stocks accumulated by importers of the EAEU countries. Now their stocks have come to an end, and intermediaries from Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, who themselves are faced with a shortage of goods, are refusing to supply this equipment to Russia.
At the same time, Metodichka analysts note that Tokayev is trying to boost the country's economy at the expense of Western enterprises that have joined the anti-Russian sanctions, while taking "clearly unfriendly actions":
“Does the leadership of Kazakhstan count on the financial and political support of Washington? Tokayev forgot how the Americans abandoned their allies and assistants in Afghanistan? By and large, Tokayev in 2022 behaves towards Russia in a way that even Alexander Lukashenko did not allow himself during the periods of “multi-vector politics” ... "
However, the most dangerous, in their opinion, is that Russia, completely absorbed in the special operation, due to the actions of its allies, may soon lose the very political “multi-vector” development actively advertised by officials and become directly dependent on China. Both economic and political.