It is one thing to save money on the state apparatus, and quite another thing to save money on medicine or education. It was the latter that happened. Despite the fact that our budget is similar to archaeological research - the deeper you dig, the more interesting the finds, Novye Izvestia managed by studying and analyzing the fragmentary information that is currently in the public domain to figure out what exactly awaits us in the coming years. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Finance is confident that it is not at all worth showing people the main financial document that will determine the way of life before being submitted for discussion to the State Duma. At the request of Novye Izvestia to provide information on the distribution of expenses by sections and state programs, the Ministry of Finance refused.
And how quickly and swiftly, without unnecessary questions, the deputies are able to pass laws - we all know very well. Before the government has time to submit the bill to the State Duma, it has already been approved by deputies and senators in record time. By the second reading, only minor details may have changed in the document. Therefore, the most crucial moment in the fate of the budget is approval by the Cabinet.
First, about the good - about those who are lucky. The only reason you can be calm is for national defense, no one takes money from the military. For the current 2020, 3.1 trillion rubles are planned to be allocated, for 2021 the new budget provides for the exact same amount, in 2022 the military will add 100 billion rubles, and in 2023 we will have to return to the previous 3.1 trillion rubles . Here is stability!
The siloviki, who are supposed to protect our peace, but for some reason more often come across themselves in the news reports after planting drugs, arresting people with blank sheets of paper instead of posters, and disrupting unwanted performances, will also not be offended. The Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, the FSB and other security officials will increase funding for the "National Security" section from 2.468 trillion in 2021 to 2.551 trillion in 2023. Not bad: in 2020, the security forces can expect 2.458 trillion rubles .
The publication of expenditures under the section "National Economy" for only one year became a disturbing sign. The increase in financing of the economy, which in itself for the first time in seven years exceeds defense spending, is good, but it could not be otherwise: in the conditions of the crisis, it is simply impossible to survive without an infusion of state funds. True, taking into account what is happening, the increase could have been more generous ... But the lack of data for 2022 and 2023 only says that financiers have no idea about the health of the domestic economy. For the rest of the sections, the breakdown is presented for all years...
But health care was not as lucky as the security forces. If spending on national security increases by about 100 billion rubles in 3 years, then doctors will be thrown 50 billion rubles next year, and 5 billion rubles will be taken away in 2023 . Indeed, if a National Guard with a baton and help in the form of colleagues and a paddy wagon starts claiming that you are healthy, then who will argue? And since we have planned economic growth (the Ministry of Finance still believes in this), the share of healthcare spending will decrease: 1% of GDP in 2021, then 0.9% and 0.8% of GDP in 2023 . It's even a shame to write such a level of numbers. If we assume that the expenses of the regions and municipalities will triple this amount, it will still be nothing small. According to the WHO, the United States will spend 17.1% of GDP on healthcare in 2020, Switzerland - 12.3%, Germany - 11.2%, Sweden - 11%. In addition, there is a possibility that the regions due to lack of funds will not be able to fulfill their health obligations.
Spending on the Education section looks good, but it is 60.3 billion rubles less than previously planned for 2021 and 53.8 billion less than the previous plans for 2022. And along with this, funding for the Education national project fell - in 2021 it will be cut by 8.3 billion rubles to 172.9 billion rubles .
But it is worth remembering that functional sections are large boilers in which anything can be done. The most interesting thing can usually be observed at the lower level of state programs. Even with external stability, you can find a lot of surprises there.
An illustrative example is financing the procurement of medicines for rare diseases under the program “14 high-cost nosologies”. First, it was reported that the annual funding cut would amount to 6.4 billion rubles. But the very next day after the news spread and the hype, the Ministry of Finance denied these figures. And the point is not at all a mistake of a negligent journalist - the Ministry of Finance itself, after the approval by the government, revised the parameters, refusing to cut by more than 10%. But how long will the consciousness of Anton Siluanov's department last? There is still time before the bill on the budget is submitted to the State Duma. But there is not much of it.
Because of this volatility, it is often necessary to rely on data from the guidelines for calculating funding limits, developed at the end of this summer. And it turns out that behind the growth in spending on the "National Economy" lies a reduction in the state program for industrial development in 2021 by 29.6%. It is believed that the industry no longer has any problems and that it is able to cope on its own. However, the data on industrial production published this week in August show that the effect of deferred demand has exhausted itself - the decline has accelerated again (-4.1% in annual terms).
The state program for the development of the transport system next year may lose 12.9%, and even the state program for the development of health care in 2021-2022 may be cut by 9.1% -10% with the prospect of losing 17% in 2023.
And against this gloomy background, the costs of the activities of the deputy chairman of the Security Council and civil servants of the presidential administration are growing by 1.13-1.16 billion rubles a year, and the presidential administration itself by 2023 may receive an increase of almost 220 million rubles. And so that people do not worry once again, and so that wrong thoughts do not creep into their heads, media spending will grow by about 10%: in the next three years, 307 billion rubles will be allocated for this purpose . New channels will appear, content will be created ... Our officials have not heard about the fact that television and radio channels, as well as Internet publications are commercial structures and should swim themselves through advertising. The more channels and programs ordered by the state, the more "correct" and approved at the highest level information, which displaces all other information from the air. It is not cheap.
And like the icing on the cake - the reduction of the national project "Demography" in 2021–2022 by 84 billion rubles . Already no one expects that the birth rate can be somehow corrected in the coming years.
With such secrecy in the preparation of the budget, it can survive in the remaining days unpleasant metamorphoses, which we already learn about only after the introduction of the bill to the State Duma, when it will be too late to change something. So far, it is only clear that the first thing we will have ... no, not planes (they also cut the budget), but officials and clubs, along with the state media that justify it all. Well, healthcare and other demographics that are not interesting to anyone - then. So the people will pay the officials their bread, and themselves - the spectacles.