Egor Susin, an analyst at Gazprombank, writes about a very alarming trend in Russian banks:
“The population continues to withdraw money from time deposits. The Bank of Russia has released a review on the development of the banking sector, the tables themselves are not yet available, but the situation with deposits continues to develop in the same mode of withdrawing funds from deposits to current accounts and to "cash".
Household funds in banks increased from 32,215 billion rubles. up to 32706 billion rubles., it would seem not bad, but almost the entire growth of deposits is a revaluation of foreign currency deposits (444 billion rubles), excluding foreign currency revaluation, deposits grew by 47 billion rubles. But according to the Central Bank, 107 billion of an increase here is an escrow account, excluding which household funds in banks in September decreased by ~ 60 billion rubles.
At the same time, the Central Bank points out that time deposits remained practically unchanged (in August - 22,192 billion rubles, in September - 22,193 billion rubles), but the currency revaluation here should be ~ 314 billion rubles, which means that the dynamics of the reduction of fixed-term deposits of the population for the month more than 300 billion (1.4%).
All nominal growth took place on demand accounts, which grew from RUB 10,024 billion. up to 10513, i.e. an increase of 489 billion rubles, given that the foreign exchange revaluation here amounted to about 130 billion, and the increase in escrow accounts was 107 billion rubles, about 250 billion came to current accounts.
This means that the population's money from deposits continues to actively migrate to current accounts and into cash. Here it is worth considering the fact that the population receives ~ 250-300 billion rubles per quarter. interest on deposits ... for the third quarter, the inflow of funds from the population to banks (including escrow) amounted to ~ 150 billion, which is actually equivalent to an outflow of funds...".
St. Petersburg businessman Sergei Vasiliev, for his part, confirms:
“At the same time, the total assets of private investors in foreign shares alone on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange reached $ 4.1 billion, which is about RUB 300 billion. Since the beginning of the year, growth from $ 1 billion to $ 4.1 billion. The overflow from ruble deposits with a minimum interest is obvious..."
And network analyst Andrey Nalgin is concerned:
“This is not surprising given that the Russian population is dissatisfied with banks. The level of loyalty of Russians to banks in 2020 dropped to almost zero, follows from a survey by the analytical center NAFI. According to him, following the results of eight months of the year, the index of customer loyalty to banks (Net Promoter Score (NPS) - willingness to recommend a bank) was only 1.3 points. In 2016, when NAFI began such calculations, this indicator was at the level of 43 points.
The deterioration in customer attitudes towards banks is primarily due to a decrease in deposit rates and tougher conditions for loyalty and cashback programs. In pursuit of margins, lending institutions are losing customers. But not only the greed of the tops is the reason.
Money is also leaving deposits due to the imminent start of the effect of personal income tax on interest on bank deposits. This makes savings rates completely uncompetitive, especially when compared to inflation. Its subjective level, by the way, is much higher than the official figures.
Some experts note that investments of individuals in securities have reached a level comparable to the outflow of money from banks. Others additionally point to a rise in property prices. In other words, during a crisis, money goes into less reliable and liquid instruments. Which means the accumulation of risks - both personal and systemic.
Are we preparing for a new banking crisis?"