Konstantin Sonin: "There is not a single weighty reason to support Lukashenko"

“I have read and studied information about a lot of 'dropouts' of leaders. We, as spectators at a football or boxing match, are watching what is happening from the outside, and it seems to us how smart it would be to make concessions or agree on something, or hold new elections, announce the limitation of our own powers, appoint representatives of the opposition in which That's a Council, but in reality - they (leaders) are all the same.

All of them, until the end, until the last day of departure from the country, believe that their orders will be listened to. Lukashenko will have nothing else, he will never make concessions.

At some moments he will be taken out of the palace and taken somewhere there, to Russia or Uzbekistan, and he will think that he has support, he will internally make some plans about how he will return. He will never believe that his reign is over.

Even if it is difficult for us to believe it, besides, all the facts are obvious... Lukashenko simply does not have a special body that can believe that Belarusians do not need him.

I recently reread the protocol of the interrogation of the Ceausescu spouses - I do not compare Lukashenko directly with Ceausescu, he has not yet opened fire on the demonstrators - but these people, judging by their answers, before their death believed what they were saying. They believed that Romanians had improved their lives in the last ten years.

In the last years before Ceausescu's execution, the electricity in Bucharest was turned on for two hours, Ceausescu had an insane economic plan. Well, that is, he had a "complete astral".

...How can Lukashenko be supported in his right mind now, given that there is nothing to negotiate with him, he does not enjoy support, he has no future in Belarus? I can't imagine why support it.

Will Lukashenko be able to suppress the protest without a lot of blood? Now I believe that no... The point is not how many people go out to protest, but the fact that among citizens, it seems, the understanding that Lukashenko is completely bored, is completely unnecessary, absolutely inadequate and disgusting, it is very strong.

...The number of people who left after the elections, even in small towns, literally shows the public consensus that Lukashenko should leave.

I would say that it is even interesting that members of the Belarusian elite - all these ministers of internal affairs, culture, in principle, can realize that the speakers hardly demand the resignation of the entire government as a whole.

It looks like the rallies may end if the prisoners are simply released and one of the ministers becomes the new president. Everyone literally just wants to get rid of Lukashenko.

...When Belarusian officials realize that even a strong revolution will eventually affect few of them, I think this will also accelerate Lukashenko's departure".