According to The Guardian columnist Dan Sabbag, the first scenario provides for the delay of hostilities for another year, but they will not be as intense as in the spring of 2022. But there will be no negotiations in these six months between Kyiv and Moscow, despite the growing “fatigue” from hostilities.
The second scenario will be expressed in the fact that the Ukrainian armed forces will abandon the idea of a counteroffensive due to a lack of forces and means, but will resort to the tactics of partisan raids and long-range rocket attacks.
The third forecast is based on the fact that the Russian armed forces will take offensive actions, but only with the aim of holding the territories already occupied. “With cold weather approaching, Russia is likely to focus on strengthening what it has”, - Sabbagh notes.
In the fourth scenario, events will be affected by the onset of winter and the situation with refugees. The side that is better prepared for this will win. And here, according to the observer, the advantage is on the side of Moscow, which will be able to dictate its terms to Kiev. Moreover, according to some reports, a new wave of refugees from Ukraine to Europe is expected in winter, numbering about 2 million people.
And, finally, the fifth scenario depends entirely on the position of the Western countries, on whether they want to continue to support Ukraine with weapons and humanitarian aid. It is known that every month the Ukrainian budget deficit is about 5 billion dollars, and the restoration of the economy of this country will cost much more, the author concludes.