Network analyst Andrei Nalgin drew attention to the impact of the pandemic on the global energy market. As you know, prices on it have fallen record highs and may fall further, since the prospects remain unclear.
The only way out of the situation for exporters is to find a weak link in the supply chain and remove it. They didn’t look for long: the management of Russian state-owned companies that are engaged in energy resources is so weak that competitors have already begun to actively use this weakness.
Following oil, gas prices also fell to multi-year lows. It is funny at the same time that in the Netherlands the gas price is lower than not just in Russia, but even in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - almost “at the well”! And analysts promise a reduction in prices on the exchange to minus marks, so that you will have to forget about the payback of the "Northern" and "Turkish" flows for a long time.
Qatar is ready to deal another blow to the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas, which said it would not only not reduce supplies, but also increase them. Surely the United States will follow it, increasing the production of liquefied natural gas - LNG, which, according to the forecasts of analysts, in 8 years will occupy two three of the entire natural gas market in the world!
True, Russia also took up LNG, and even made some progress: it suddenly turned out that it was cheaper to liquefy gas on the Arctic coast than in Arabian sands. However, technological sanctions against our country can reduce this advantage to zero. For example, after Shell left the Baltic LNG project in Ust-Luga, a question arose about gas liquefaction technology for this plant, which has not yet been resolved.
The result is an extremely unpleasant situation: Gazprom is trapped with its Nord Stream 2, and incurs losses, and sanctions will continue, including against buyers of Russian gas too. And it was proposed to support Gazprom at the expense of the country's citizens.
A similar situation is with oil: Rosneft also asks the state for help in the form of tax incentives, but it seems that the recession can no longer be stopped, and therefore the entire oil and gas industry, which occupies no less, but two-thirds of state export, has been hit. !
So Russia turned out to be the very weak link that is now being beaten by everyone who is not lazy.