Experts: “The lockdown will kill many more people than the coronavirus itself!”

Odessa doctor Sergey Dibrov collected on his blog the views of the European colleagues about the pandemic, and found out that the measures taken against it have nothing to do with science:

“Recently I have been observing how the public opinion is being formed: they say that all these tough quarantine measures that ruin the economy were invented by the epidemiologists, supposedly in order to save more people.

It is not true.

In fact, epidemiologists (I emphasize: the “epidemiologists,” that is, medical specialists who deal with the real infectious diseases of real people, and not the “epidemiologists” who saw only abstract numbers and mathematical models) mostly are shocked by the events that are now taking place allegedly "to counter the coronavirus".

I have repeatedly cited the opinions of Ukrainian experts. And yes, they are horrified by the inevitable economic consequences of “quarantine,” which can be much more deadly.

Colleagues from other countries agree with him. Doctors (that is, MDs who have studied medicine for at least 6 years and have not completed the annual Public Health Master's course and become health officials) are not shy about publicly criticizing purely political decisions regarding the pandemic response. Here are typical examples.

Germany, Director of the Hamburg Medical Center, Professor Ansgar Lohse (MD) believes that continued strict measures will lead to an economic crisis that will also kill people (Die Fortdauer der strikten Maßnahmen würde zu einer Wirtschaftskrise führen, die ebenfalls Menschenleben kostet)

Israel: Former Minister of Health Professor Yoram Lass (MD) states that the lockdown will kill more people from depression than the virus.

Germany, a pathologist Bodo Schiffmann (MD), who was forbidden to open the dead from COVID-19, is sure that the available autopsy data (six patients from China) is clearly not enough to come up with solutions to an epidemic that kills thousands of patients around the world and halts the economy of whole countries (Es ist schon bemerkenswert, dass bei einer Seuche die über den ganzen Globus hinweg Tausende von Patienten dahin rafft und die Wirtschaft ganzer Länder nahezu zum Stillstand bringt, nur äußerst spärliche Obduktionschsferfen) Patent)

Israel: Director of the Geriatric Center Yoram Maaravi (MD) claims that isolation can kill more older people than COVID-19.

Germany: Hamburg's chief pathologist Professor Klaus Püschel (MD) believes that the “astronomical” economic damage resulting from such a pandemic is not comparable to the danger from the virus (Und der astronomische wirtschaftliche Schaden, der jetzt entsteht, ist der Gefahr, die von dem Virus ausgeht , nicht angemessen)

Switzerland: Professor Pietro Vernazza (MD) argues that the measures taken are not based on science and should be repealed. He suggests protecting only risk groups so as not to harm the economy. Moreover, judging by his request, some measures were taken only because other countries did so (Seine Nachfrage beim BAG habe gezeigt, dass die Entscheidung nicht auf wissenschaftlicher Basis erfolgt sei, sondern weil die anderen Länder diese auch durchgeführt haben). He does not pretend to be true, but says that we still need to integrate scientific facts more closely into political decisions (Nicht dass ich schon weiss, was der richtige Weg ist, aber mindestens sollten wir die wissenschaftlichen Fakten besser in die politischen Entscheidungen einbinden).

Why it happens? Everything is simple. The planning and implementation of measures to combat coronavirus in most countries is a purely political issue, to which medical specialists are distantly related.

Someone will object: they say that politicians are as far from epidemiology as epidemiologists are from the economy.

I note: epidemiologists do not pretend to make economic decisions. They are not going to regulate tariffs, change discount rates or set taxes. But they know well how powerful the anti-epidemic measures are, and they remember that these weapons are double-edged. The ancient principle of “do no harm” also applies here.

In addition, epidemiologists are required to consider all factors that directly affect morbidity and mortality. The statistical impact of a falling economy on rising mortality is known: minus 10% of GDP is plus 5% of deaths. In today's Ukraine, this is 30 thousand deaths per year, if you can catch on 10%. In the event of an economic collapse, the situation will become even sadder. In the early 90s, 150-200 thousand more people died in Ukraine annually than in the late 80s.

Unfortunately, the current situation is neither new nor purely Ukrainian. The European Parliament spoke about the inadmissibility of removing doctors from the fight against a pandemic as early as March 8, 2011 in paragraph 9 of its angry resolution on "swine flu."

Therefore, when politicians begin to look for the extreme for what they have done, do not slander epidemiologists. And do not say that you were not warned.

PS

And for all arithmeticists who smartly draw incidence curves and confidently tell how it will be in a month and in six months, I would suggest to start by drawing a graph of the price of oil or the EUR / USD rate at least a week or two in advance. In the epidemiology of factors affecting the processes, perhaps there will be more..."