Over a substantial period of time, the country's debt burden did not bother anyone much: people took consumer loans, car loans, mortgages, and although real disposable incomes have not grown since 2014, everyone kept hoping that just about a little more, and the situation would improve , national projects will help us, and revenues will grow. Even banks were inclined to this point of view, approving loans without any problems: in January, banks issued loans for 136 billion rubles, in February - for 214 billion rubles, and in March they managed to give out 304 billion rubles. People after the fall in oil prices were expecting a rise in price of many durable goods, including household appliances and cars, and ran to shopping. But besides the depreciation of the ruble, there were working days off and working days on which you can’t work, which led to a drop in employment.
10.9% is already a record for the entire history of observations in modern Russia, and one should not expect an improvement in the situation. The first quarter was also marked by an increase in salaries: in March, inflation-adjusted salaries increased by 5.9% in annual terms, and by 7.1% compared to February. April will not be so rosy already: the time for awards for 2019 paid to state employees has passed, but the business simply does not have any revenue. Avito Work published a study according to which 40% of Russians fell under wage cuts either because of a reduction in salary or when they went on unpaid leave. Yes, and interest-free loans for salaries from the state will not help: they can, like unemployment benefits, provide only the minimum wage, and they rely on enterprises with 6 million people. For comparison: Rosstat in Russia has 71.4 million people, which it classifies as “employed”. However, the authorities are in no hurry to sound the alarm: they are quite happy with the statistics, in which the real disposable income of the population, which takes into account mandatory expenses and taxes, in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by only 0.2% compared to the same period last year. In addition, back in 2019, Rosstat refused to publish monthly data on real disposable income - the next portion of the figures will be only in July, so the ministers still have time to come up with some kind of “feint with their ears” so that the statistics are not so frightening.
While people themselves already felt all the delights of lack of money and debt. The share of loans secured by a car in microfinance organizations, where at best you can count on 100% per annum, in April jumped 2 times - from 6.5% to 13.3%. People are ready to do anything to get money. Banks began to be cautious and reduced the issuance of loans secured by a car from 81 thousand to 16 thousand loans. Bonded MFIs are becoming the only source of funds. And often these new loans go to pay off previous debts. According to CarMoney, in March-April, 24% of loans secured by a car were taken to repay loans. Previously, only 2% of loans disposed of this.
People are left without a car, but with even greater debts - commissions and fines from MFIs can exceed the amount of debt by several times. And there is no other way. Against this background, the surprise of Minister Anton Kotyakov that people rushed to make payments of 10 thousand rubles for children looks at least strange. The proposal to increase the minimum unemployment benefit from 1,500 to 4,500 rudders and the still valid restriction on receiving a minimum wage benefit only for those who have lost their job with a work book after March 1, 2020 also look exactly the same. When the time comes to recognize the financial catastrophe, it may be too late.