Plans and reality: will import substitution take place in the aviation industry?

Ivan Zubov

Russian officials share plans for import substitution in the aircraft industry. For example, according to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yuri Borisov , "the share of domestically produced aircraft in the fleet of Russian airlines should grow to 81% by 2030."

Briefly outlined the action plan:

- In 2023, mass production of imported Superjet New aircraft will begin, which will be equipped with the Russian PD-8 engine, as well as domestic avionics and systems;

- Foreign aircraft flying over medium and long distances will be gradually replaced by domestic MS-21 and Tu-214;

- Delivery of the first batch of six MS-21 serial aircraft will take place in 2024;

- Delivery of 72 MS-21 aircraft per year will begin in 2029;

- The release of 70 Tu-214 aircraft will take place before 2030.

- The fleet of regional aviation will be expanded. By 2030, 70 Il-114-300 units, up to 140 TVRS-44 Ladoga aircraft and 154 Baikal aircraft will be produced.

However, these far-reaching plans were questioned by the analysts of the Babr channel. There is nowhere further , ”who claim that Deputy Prime Minister Borisov got excited:

“The Superjet New aircraft cannot be produced in 2023, since the PD-8 engine for it still exists in the only experimental version, and no one knows when it will go into production.

The Czech aircraft L-610, which is to be copied in Russia under the name TVRS-44, is planned to be produced at the Ural Civil Aviation Plant only in 2025. And then with the prefix "maybe."

The Il-114-300 aircraft has not even been certified yet, there can be no question of any serial production. Recall that the IL-114 was developed in the 1980s, since 1990 only 20 aircraft have been produced, and the aircraft itself is already hopelessly outdated ... "