Question of the Day: how much will Russia lose due to a partial embargo on oil exports?

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Question of the Day: how much will Russia lose due to a partial embargo on oil exports?
Question of the Day: how much will Russia lose due to a partial embargo on oil exports?
31 May, 15:35Photo: 1MI
Western analysts predict losses of more than $20 billion a year, but they do not take into account all factors.

As you know, on Tuesday night, the leaders of the EU countries finally agreed on a new package of sanctions, which provides for a partial embargo on the import of Russian oil. Under the sanctions fell oil supplied by sea. The EU has so far decided to leave imports through the Druzhba oil pipeline, on which Hungary depends, which was sharply opposed to the introduction of a full embargo against Russia, BBC reports.

In addition, Bulgaria has also achieved an exemption from the sixth package of EU sanctions of the embargo of Russian oil imports until the end of 2024, Prime Minister of this country Kirill Petkov said.

Bloomberg estimates that a seaborne ban alone could result in Russia losing about $10 billion a year in export earnings. Russian companies will be forced to sell their oil to Asia, where a barrel of Urals comes at a $34 discount to a barrel of Brent.

The cessation of supplies through the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany will lead to losses of another $12 billion (based on 2021 volumes and an average Urals oil price this year of $85 per barrel). Russia will continue to earn about $6 billion from exports to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic through the southern branches of the Druzhba pipeline.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that Germany and Poland had promised to stop oil supplies via the pipeline by the end of the year, due to which 90% of Russian oil would be banned. “There will be about 10% or 11% of oil from the pipeline, but we will return to this issue as soon as possible,” she said.

Economist Nikita Krichevsky strongly disagrees with such a forecast, and explains in his channel why it is "fake":

- "Forecast everything, but not prices." No one knows what the price of oil will be, say, in six months. If the embargo had been introduced last year, then yes, but this year, and even with a delay of six months - sorry.

- Why did Bloomberg decide that the word of five letters in Ukraine will be eternal, respectively, the sanctions - to go on increasing, not decreasing?

- The Asian market, where Russian oil is allegedly already being sold at a $34 discount to Brent, Bloomberg mentions, but does not predict, an increase in supplies.

- Bloomberg denies itself the pleasure of estimating how much it will cost to modernize refineries in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe, now sharpened by Urals.

“Bloomberg ignores such well-known oil export techniques as blending (mixing with oil from other countries) or export deliveries with an open destination,” the expert concludes.

Experts of the Boilernaya channel also believe that this news, although not very pleasant for Russia, is nothing catastrophic in it:

“Convenient supplies via the pipeline will be cut, and for the sale of oil, either shadow schemes or tanker supplies will have to be more actively used. However, by the end of April, Asia overtook Europe in the ranking of the largest importers of our oil. These deliveries will undoubtedly be further increased, and possible costs will be offset by the growth in world oil prices due to the buildup of the market by Western sanctions. It will be much more interesting to see how the EU itself will adapt to new conditions: it will not be easy to replace the falling volumes of hydrocarbons at affordable prices, as well as technologically re-equip refineries sharpened for “heavy” Russian oil. This means that the EU is waiting for a new price rally and problems in the economy…”

Let’s add on our own: during the first lockdown in 2020, all world analysts were voting about the “end of the oil era” and oil prices almost below $10 per barrel. Today, oil costs well over $100, gas has risen in price many times over, and the miracles of "green" energy do not cover even 10 percent of the world's energy needs.

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