Andrey Okara, political analyst
The game in the combination "USA - China - EU - Germany - Russia - Ukraine" has become radically more complicated.
Russian foreign policy in the medium-term time trend has been quite successful.
Ukraine was actually betrayed by EVERYONE (of those with whom there were active and politically significant relations) - except for Lithuania, England, Poland, Turkey, Georgia and Moldova. Tying the Minsk Agreements to the transit guarantee is a control shot in the head. Well, as a mockery - 1 billion euros of "compensation" - for the development of "green" energy from Germany.
It is possible, of course, to replace the word "betrayed" with the phrase "adjusted their positions" in accordance with "pragmatic interests".
Nord Stream 2 is a triumph for the Kremlin, Gazprom and Putin personally. This is Germany's long-term tie to Russia and Russian interests. But the most brilliant special operation of the Kremlin and Smolenskaya Square is all that is happening in relations with the United States. Yes, Putin may have promised Biden in Geneva (or earlier) not to start a war with Ukraine. But it is possible that the tension on the border in March-April is not a real preparation for military action, but a complex special operation based on the methodology of reflexive control, the purpose of which is to create negotiating arguments in a dialogue with the West (someone will like the word "blackmail" more)...
"Friends of Russia" in the White House have ceased to disguise themselves. Carrie is a welcome guest in Moscow, who enthusiastically talks about the negotiations with Putin and Ruslan Edelgeriyev.
All the big "Western friends" of Ukraine (Biden-Merkel-Macron) are forcing Kiev to implement the Minsk agreements as soon as possible in the most unfavorable form for it.
Putin's article invites Ukraine to choose its future destiny by putting a tick in front of one of the items: 1. Ukraine-as-Finland; 2. neo-Ukrainian SSR; 3. Southwestern Federal District.
German politicians and especially business are happy that now they will receive gas at a lower price - thanks to cheap transit. At the same time, forgetting that they will have to pay for this with their own foreign policy.
In this situation, the United States is afraid to quarrel with Germany - over China. Strengthening, thereby, the future Russian-German alliance.
All signs of disrespect towards Biden backfired on Zelensky. And the vacuousness of Ukrainian-American relations.
In the coming autumn, Ukraine can easily fall into a funnel of self-destruction - a situation of cumulative effect can be created by a combination of such factors: budget deficit, increase in gas prices and rent, increased tax burden, dissatisfaction with the "market" of agricultural land, Zelensky's attempt to implement the Minsk agreements, dissemination of information about treason among senior officials (the case of the "Wagnerites" and others), the smell of total betrayal around, the spread of moods of despondency and the idea of Ukraine as a "failed state".
All those Ukrainian politicians and political scientists who prayed to the West all their lives and wholeheartedly, unconditionally believed the "civilized world" at their word, had a state almost like that of Ippolit Muravyov-Apostol after the defeat of the uprising of the Chernigov regiment (who forgot the details of the history of the Decembrists: he shot himself).
In this desperate situation, Ukrainian diplomacy gets the last trump card (well, not an ace or a king, but somewhere 7 or 8): a direct appeal to the American "deep state". This is logical and can bring some success. And, perhaps, the Verkhovna Rada and Speaker Dmitry Razumkov can become the engine of this movement.
Or maybe not...
Original is here.