Marina Shapovalova, writer
It is worth writing, they say, Ukraine will not collapse and will not fall apart, as the awaiting collapse of Russia will become more active.
No, it won't. No state will fall apart for the joy of its northern or southern neighbors. And Catalonia will not secede. And no one recognizes the actual disintegration of Syria. Everything will continue as it is now, "endlessly" until it ends.
This description of the collapse of the USSR, in my opinion, is most suitable for the scenario outlined a year ago. The existing world system will hold on to the stop, as long as it can. And it will disintegrate in terms comparable to the August putsch and the fall after it. All at the same time.
This systemic crisis will end with the transition of the world to a different state. Until the end of the 21st century, this is no longer a plus or minus probability, but a 100% guarantee. Moreover, the maximum probability can already be talked about in the future 10-20 years.
All terms here are tentative. You can be wrong. Since the inertia of self-preservation allows you to stretch time for decades, and in the scale of human life it is very long. By analogy with the USSR, his doom became obvious to the analysts in the 60s, but the inevitable happened only two and a half decades later. And if not for the "black swan" putsch, it could have happened even later.
Why can we talk about inevitability.
Because the meanings were nullified and the development stopped. From this moment on, any system goes to a dead end. It rushes there or crawls forward, stopping for respite one end. The accumulated fat, of course, slows down the speed. But that's all. But attempts at radical "reform" without meaning and the release of potentials catalyze the process.
Man is the only kind of living creature incapable of living without meaning. Both individually and in communities. Losing the obvious meanings, he needs ersatz. But ersatz should be similar to transcendental meanings. It is easier for an individual to deceive himself. The community (this is important!) Must be in solidarity in the recognition of meanings (or ersatz), otherwise it disintegrates.
The “green and green” agenda is not a new meaning, but just an ersatz. Offering a person (as a species) self-belittling and self-castration for the sake of preserving living and inanimate nature in its primordial form.
The thesis about preserving the environment for the sake of future generations is also not a transcendental meaning, although it sounds more humane. Because it is followed by the Tolstoyan question: why, in fact, should future generations be born? And within the framework of the proposed paradigm, there is no answer to it.
For what? For the sake of trouble-free reproduction of lousy jerboas, should people be born who abruptly limit their livelihoods by saving energy costs? Sorry, but this is not a transcendental meaning. And in the absence of the transcendent, while realizing the absolute finitude of earthly life, it is not even human.
But this ersatz, as it has already been announced to us, will activate the "reform" agenda. Those without the release of human potentials, on the contrary, enslaving, therefore, catalyzing catastrophic processes.
Only those who are very keen on mythical ideas are unclear that the rise in the cost and reduction of energy generation is physically incompatible either with quantum computers, or in general with some kind of next technological transition, they just require an increase in energy consumption by orders of magnitude. And not at the expense of subsidies from the budget for the production of expensive energy resources, but, so to speak, "in its pure form", without these fictions, when the distributed budget, as it were, appears out of nothing in numbers on pieces of paper and screens.
We, of course, will also see the religious ecstasy of green sectarians self-destructing under the icons of Saint Greta for the sin of releasing methane into the atmosphere. But their ersatz meanings are unlikely to attract masses of followers. Therefore, I hope we will see more.
Namely: ways of interaction that release human potential. That is impossible without fundamentally new transcendental meanings. Otherwise, we (humanity) will live in the Islamic world for some time. So far, this alternative is the only one. And in its simplicity, it is quite intelligible.
Original is here.