Sergey Vasilyev, entrepreneur, publicist
Economists of the Central Bank introduced an interesting new term into circulation - "reverse industrialization".
So they called the third stage of the restructuring of the Russian economy.
The first, shock, has already passed in March/April. The second one, “primary adjustment of companies and production chains to new operating conditions,” is underway now and will last until the end of the year.
And then the third stage will begin, "reverse industrialization", which will last for several years.
What is it, how do they understand it?
"Reverse industrialization" is industrialization based on the development of less advanced technologies. The implementation of investment projects for import substitution will begin. The production of equipment and technologies will begin, but at a lower technological level.
We can agree with this.
If the huge Japanese giant produced any cars for the world market, he tuned his technologies and efficiency based on the huge world market. If we start producing some kind of analogue, then only for our Russian market we will not be able to make machines of the same quality and efficiency.
The scale of production always determines the final quality. Any large plant makes a product of higher quality than a smaller competitor.
But is that a reason not to go that route?
Probably, it’s still better to produce goods of lower quality, but your own, than not to produce anything?!
Economists of the Central Bank in their forecast confirm that such "reverse industrialization" will lead to an increase in industrial production. The demand for labor will also increase, as new industries will also require new workers.
In general, although the economists of the Central Bank introduce a kind of derogatory term “reverse industrialization”, they agree that it will be precisely the “industrialization of the country”, the launch of new industries and the growth of employment.
But this, in fact, is the main goal of the economic policy of any country!
In general, if there were no special military operation, it would have to be invented in order to accelerate this... "industrialization".