Political scientist Pavel Danilin: "I do not exclude the option of a big war in Europe"

Novye Izvestia discussed the new escalation of the conflict in Donbass with experts.

Director General of the Center for Political Analysis Pavel Danilin supports the actions of the Russian authorities to block the borders. In an interview with Novye Izvestia, he admitted that volunteers might still be needed in the Donbass, but so far they are not needed.

- What explains the overlap of the border?

- The closure of the border is explained by the fact that it is necessary to control more strictly so that Ukrainian saboteurs do not penetrate from the territory of the DPR, but from Russia, so that various hotheads do not go there as volunteers. It is very important. The state does not want uncontrolled movement in this direction. Volunteers may appear, but so far, in order to keep the situation under control more tightly, volunteers are not needed there. On the part of the Ukrainian volunteers, most often there were violations of the truce, which led to the current aggravation. Let's imagine what will happen if our equally hot and poorly controlled ones appear on the other side.

- How will the situation develop?

- I really hope that Kiev will have enough brains and self-preservation instinct to give up aggression.

- Why, as you said, Kiev's "aggression" takes place against the backdrop of the accumulation of Russian troops on the border, and not when the exercises were supposed to end and the troops were withdrawn?

- I must say that the group that stands there regularly, it has not gone away. And those troops that took part in the exercises began to redeploy since Monday. In this context, we cannot consider them as being on the border. If we look at where our troops are, then in Kiev, after the war did not start on February 16, euphoria began, but this war is so important to the United States that they are forcing Kiev to do these things.

- Will Russian troops cross the border?

- In the event of Ukraine's continued aggression against the DPR-LPR, I do not exclude the recognition of the self-proclaimed republics and the introduction of Russian troops there at the request of the leaders of these independent states. I do not exclude the possibility that Ukraine will retreat and try to forget about this aggression like a nightmare and start implementing the Minsk agreements. I do not exclude the option of a big war in Europe. Another thing is that the probability of all these options is different. There is an option that Russia will retreat and abandon Donetsk and Lugansk. Here I consider it as a probability of 2% -3%. Big war in Europe - 5%. For the fact that we recognize Donetsk and Lugansk - 70%. And the remaining 20% - Ukraine will retreat and begin to implement the Minsk agreements.