Ilya Grashchenkov: “The Kremlin, but not the virus, is pushing the regions to “demoscowization”

However, sarcasm also found a place in the stream of assessments since a parade of gubernatorial resignations immediately took place (or began).

At the request of NI, Ilya Grashchenkov , a political scientist, general director of the Center for Regional Policy Development (RRRP), assessed the current situation.

“Federalization is underway, but according to the Medvedev’s principle“ there is no money, but you hold on. ”That is: Moscow will continue to withdraw money from the entities according to the imperial principle of“ collect and divide ”, but the powers regarding decisions about what to do with the virus are thrown to the regions You know, although this factor is also disavowed, the governors of the Arkhangelsk Region, Kamchatka Territory and the Komi Republic conditionally fired “for the virus” are evidence of this, because there is no virus in Kamchatka, why blame the chapter for mild measures? But in general, all unpopular decisions center ne elozhit the regions.

This is important because when the virus ends, the country will face the ruins of the ruble and the economy. Millions of laid-offs, the ruble may fall to 100 or even 120 per dollar, inflation will be at least 50% for goods bought for foreign currency. Plus, a new round of tax collection, "digital slavery", prohibitions, requisitions and not a single federal carrot. The system itself is pushing the subjects to a new round of “demoscalization”, with the departure to the gray sector of not individual entrepreneurs, but parts of the regional economy as a whole. These trends, by the way, are not only Russian, centrifugal movements began in Spain and Italy, although the euro didn’t collapse anywhere. And Russia without expensive oil due to what to survive? Therefore, the regions will still take their toll, the question is, when will they be allowed to do this, when there will be nothing to collect, or still a little earlier? Putin spoke of “fat accumulation,” but somehow there is no reason to believe in the new reality that medium-sized businesses will be able to wind it up.

As for the resignations of governors, everything goes according to the "pre-virus" plan. March sociology came out and showed that there are governors with a rating below 30% (and in some places below 10%) and there are requests for updating the heads of regions at the level of 50-60%. We decided not to repeat the scenario of Zimin (the governor of Khakassia 2009 - 2018) and Shport (the governor of the Khabarovsk Territory 2009 - 2018), they dismissed them by replacing them with younger, new ones. Although, according to rumors, the governors wrote their statements back in November, and signed them only yesterday.

I recall a piece from the movie “The Same Munchausen,” where in the morning the burgomaster grabbed a bundle of petitions for divorce, and the duke suddenly signed them all, shouting “To freedom, everyone to freedom!”. It seems that Putin, in the interval between an appeal to the nation, managed to listen to the block of domestic politics and sign part of the exit list.

I think that in the risk zone the head of the Rostov Region Golubev, Penza Region Belozertsev, Bryansk Region Bogomaz, Smolensk Region Ostrovsky, Krasnodar Territory Kondratyev, Kostroma Region Sitnikov.

The head of the Leningrad region Drozdenko, the Tambov region Nikitin feels a little more confident, I think that no one will replace the president of Tatarstan Minnikhanov".