Posted 12 мая 2020, 13:48
Published 12 мая 2020, 13:48
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:37
Neither fish nor meat: the Russian authorities are unlikely to be able to start the economy by half measures
What threatens Russia with a way out of the idle state announced by Putin, comments network analyst Andrei Nalgin , believing that the country risks stepping on three rakes right away.
The first rake is shown in this graph.
It can be seen that the exit from the under-quarantine is not dictated by the epidemic, but exclusively by the economic situation. While Europe removes restrictions after the decline in incidence, Russia has not even come to its peak! But at the same time, Putin cannot afford to keep tens of millions of citizens without work, since this threatens him with grave consequences of a completely non-medical nature. True, at the same time, he shifted responsibility to both governors and citizens ... I wonder if it will work out?
The second rake is a plan for overcoming the crisis. If in all normal countries it is detailed in many ways, in Russia it is two leaflets, the contents of which can be stated even shorter: we will act according to the situation. And that’s all! There is no detailed national plan, everything is again handed over to the regional authorities, which entails inevitably complete confusion and inconsistency ...
The third rake is about the fact that most of the country's citizens were both quarantined and will remain in quarantine until the beginning of June, nothing has changed for them if they are not busy at the racks or in industrial production ...
But they should wear masks and gloves, bought with their own money, without having any indulgences, as is done in Europe - playing sports, family walks, visiting parks and so on. That is, the authorities are not in a hurry to return freedom to people, on the contrary, it will be even stricter.
All of these half measures are unlikely to help restart the economy, as well as drawing up benefits for several million families is unlikely to relieve social tension - since it’s a pity of 3, 5, 10 thousand rubles - a drop in the ocean of problems.
What the authorities are hoping for is decidedly incomprehensible. "
It is incomprehensible not only to Andrei Nalgin, but practically to all note commentators of events. Radio Liberty made a selection of perplexed responses:
Putin clarified everything. It was not quarantine, but the day - "a single period of non-working days."
Some compare Putin’s speech with a similar speech by Angela Merkel, which took 27 seconds.
The cruel Sobyanin introduced masks and gloves — the good Putin lifts quarantine that has not been introduced and, retaining gloves with masks, bestows children with small money. Bipolar systems in politics are very stable. But not epidemiologically.
Well, seals, chroniclers today have to drag out! The Pechenegs were defeated, the quarantine was nullified, but the infection was not dropped! Private "cuckoo", as one TV presenter likes to say, is not doing very well. Either sitting at home, or not sitting? Are we working, or not really? Vacations are all, but there is no total online? Everything is tough in the capital, in the country - according to feelings. And on TV, maskless fellow citizens still explain something about the amendments according to the training manual (that's where television stability is - it doesn’t take anything from these videos)))
Just imagine. Thousands of people, having listened to the head of state who announced the end of non-working days, leave for work tomorrow. It is logical that no restrictions on self-isolation should apply to them. But no one announced the lifting of the "non-quarantine" regime in Moscow or elsewhere That is, do people either skip work or run into fines? What dystopia can surpass such a reality?
everyone decides for himself, of course. but keep in mind: your way out is not only suicide - it is the murder of a neighbor.
The one who gave the order to go to work is a fool or a double-minded fool who is following the order.
What does it mean "a single period of non-working days ends"? Everyone went to work, restrictive measures removed? Nothing of the kind, in Moscow they are toughening up ... I wonder how all this will be explained to quilted jackets? They, too, are already fucked up ... And their stock of loyalty is not unlimited ... And what will happen to the voting for zeroing? It seems to me that we have fun months waiting for ours ....
Dmitry Kolesev: The authorities were unable to ensure the implementation of the regime of self-isolation, so you have to finish it. Citizens saw that a regime that wants to seem scary is actually quite helpless.
When is it so hot in Russia, when is HF in full, No. 2 in the world, to open the work of industrial and construction enterprises, speaking incessantly about exit, exit, exit? A lot of people on the streets, in the subway will be added in Moscow. Vague fears torment, which can be much worse, understanding the state of souls and the economy. If only nobody would rage - neither people, nor authorities, nor economy.
Non-working days began when we had 302 infected per day. And they end when there are 11656. It is obvious that the danger of infection today is ten times higher than at the beginning of quarantine. Nevertheless, we cancel non-working days.
For a month and a half of self-isolation, we: 1. Dealt a heavy blow to small business. In many cases, fatal. 2. Official unemployment doubled. 3. They brought down the income of the population by 20%. In fact, they rather deprived 20% of the population of 100% of their income.
And all this was done in order to remove quarantine at a time when the incidence is highest.
Total: have suffered and still bear it, at your own expense. No strength to endure - work, but on your own responsibility. To governors - manage, decide, look for resources, spend money in agreement with the government. Something will go wrong - respond privately.
Sergey Smirnov: Removing the semi-quarantine regimen at the peak of the incidence rate seems insane. But if you look at all the events in terms of rating, then another question. Now let the governors be to blame. Extend the regimen? People can't make money! Remove the mode? An increase in the incidence on their conscience. Putin can safely criticize the right-left bias.
Regions understand yourself. Listen to the advice of doctors. Babam - flowers, and children - ice cream. What was it?
The current political regime excludes the responsibility of the first person and the highest authority, therefore everything is shifted to regions whose heads will become boys for flogging, if successful, the Kremlin will not allow their popularity to grow. First of all, this concerns Sobyanin. But all this is not so important in comparison with the further growth of the epidemic, against which the choice of a half-hearted, inconsistent struggle against this scourge is obvious. There will be more deaths, the epidemic will last longer.
The worse it will be in the country, the more federalism will probably be. Historically, this is the right process. Another thing is that everyone will have a hard time. And it is completely unclear how the super-presidential, concentrated, one-man idea of the new constitution is combined with this tendency.
Putin said a fundamental thing today:
“And another crucial point. We have a big country. The epidemiological situation in the regions is different. We have taken this factor into account before, and at the upcoming stage we must act even more subtly, carefully. You can’t be guided by a common tracing-paper. ”
All the previous twenty years he acted in exactly the opposite way. The country was centralized and unified. Differences between regions in the vast majority of cases were ignored. The principle of federalism remained to exist only on paper.
It took a whole epidemic for Putin to realize that something was wrong with his chosen strategy of state development. But in fact, if you remove the words "epidemiological situation", replacing them with the words "economic situation", "political situation", etc., then today's presidential statement will remain true.
I hope the governors will learn this paragraph, and then - after the end of the epidemic - they will quote it to federal officials. Still, the president said.
At first glance, there is no logic in this. Usually quarantine restrictions are lifted when the epidemic is in decline. And we don’t even have a pandemic plateau yet: every day, according to official statistics, 10-11 thousand patients are added.
But if you look at the situation through the eyes of Putin, then the logic is understandable.
People are locked in their homes for a month and a half, and most have run out of money. If you extend the restrictions, then you need to give people some means to at least buy food for themselves. But it is obvious that Putin made a fundamental decision: not to give money.
So there is only one alternative: remove restrictions, despite the epidemic. No money? Well go and earn. Are you afraid to get sick? Wear a mask with gloves. And wash your hands more often - maybe it’ll carry. Well, no, no, we all go under God.
Yes, the government will throw some pennies on children's allowances. A few crumbs from the master's table were brushed aside by the self-employed and medical workers. On the scale of the reserves accumulated by the state, these are miserable handouts, which are even a shame to discuss seriously. But on TV, of course, this will be presented as large-scale measures to support the population.
There was a surprise with money too. Not so long ago, the finance minister insisted that he was not going to scatter them from a helicopter, and now Putin promised to distribute several hundred billion.
But not everyone is so excited.
That’s what was announced today is much more like “helicopter money,” because this is the scattering of individual handouts to individual citizens, which will not help them in any way, nor will they save the treasury. The loan antivirus program did not work at all in the last month and a half, having failed completely! And why should she earn now? But to those who do not understand the mechanism, it may seem that a generous president gives them billions.
This point help, belated, asymmetrical, is like trying to darn a hole with a needle without a thread ...
1. The cessation of the "weekend" with the ongoing ban on the work of many enterprises and organizations is the same as leaving people without money. To whom to give work, and to whom not - governors will decide. But the "center" does not give money for compensation to those whom they will never allow to work.
2. The promised 10 thousand "one-time" for families with children from 3 to 15 years old, and 5 thousand rubles for three months to families with children under 3 years old - these are not the direct payments to ALL that were needed. And which everyone demanded, starting with Yabloko and ending with opposition deputies and well-known economists.
3. Yes, under tremendous pressure, Putin “squeezed something out of himself,” uttering words about “direct assistance” a month late. Good, but unacceptably small. It would be necessary - at least 20-25 thousand rubles for EVERYONE. And for several months. And not 10 thousand rubles for three, or even four, and once.
4. Calculate the amount of assistance: 27 million families with children who receive assistance, for 10 thousand rubles per child - this is 270 billion rubles. If we take into account families where two or more children are between the ages of 3 and 15, it will turn out maybe 400 billion rubles. With a 12-trillion "egg". The main thing in it was not touched. Hold for "their".
5. And for families where there are no children and no work, or there are children, but older than 15 years (but still not working) what to do? And what to live for?
However, the conclusion is simple: public pressure must be continued.
And to demand not only an increase in assistance to citizens, but also a departure from the power of a character from whom we are tired for a long time.
Tatyana Stanovaya: And if there are no children, no work? Traditional values and coronavirus in Russia.