Posted 19 августа 2020,, 08:05
Published 19 августа 2020,, 08:05
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:37
“The WHO and the UN are already shouting: we are leaving the COVID-19 course! But "Titanic" is overclocked too ", is sure the popular blogger Alexander Rozov, who calculated the colossal economic and social losses from quarantine, which, in his opinion, was declared completely in vain:
08/17/2020 ( I quote selectively) "No repeated total quarantines - such a bright idea was made by the World Health Organization in the person of the head of the WHO Emergency Diseases Unit, epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove. Why so, he does not hide: he says that the economic consequences of the spring wave of quarantines" were colossal ".
The bottom line is: let the second wave of the coronavirus roll, the third, the fourth ... but whatever rolls over, WHO no longer recommends repeating the terrible experience with the total destruction of economies and our life in general.
... now UN Secretary General António Guterres has already started talking about a "generational catastrophe" due to the closure of schools and universities in 160 countries (out of almost 200), about hundreds of millions of children with interrupted education, which "undermines decades of progress." Therefore, they launched a campaign “save our future”, everyone - at their desks; thank you, dear general secretary. That is, now the essence of the moment is in the worldwide forced pacification of the dispersed enthusiasts of the closure of production and other things.
And for those who ask in bewilderment: what to do, you said - the virus is killing people ...
For them, there is also a sedative, from the same WHO: masks, masks are mandatory for everyone and stay away from other people - it works, believe my word. Well, then, who knows, maybe another representative of the same organization will come out (if it still exists by that time) to say: the mistake came out with the masks ... This is what happens, they did everything wrong, since now we have to save our future ? How will be correct?...
... As a result, it turned out that there is no significant difference between the results of the fight against the virus in 1957, 2009 and today. Except for one - the catastrophe of the economy and everyday life in general.
It turns out, whether you fight it or not, the result is purely medical, but the other results, to put it mildly, are different.
As regards these results, publications in the world media follow without interruption. There are dry figures for the second quarter of the year - a monstrous, by 32.9 percent, decline in the US economy (this is in terms of annual rates. - "O"), by 13.8 percent in France (in comparison quarter to quarter. - " O "), etc. Rabid passions are boiling over the Swedish experiment, the results of which are somewhat reminiscent of the same situation "1957 versus the current year", that is, the result of the Swedes is better or the same as that of the quarantine, but without the pogrom of the country and society.
However, the percentage is a bare number. What does it mean? Here is a serious publication in Foreign Affairs magazine, USA. Her final diagnosis: around the world "coronavirus is destroying societies" and "sowing civil and other conflicts." Well, we know that the virus personally is not able to do anything like that, it is not he, but the people who this time decided to fight it in a new way. Yes, in fact, the article says that viruses come and go all the time, but for the first time in world history "governments used a volley of unprecedented power" against them.
The result of this volley, as the authors of the publication note, is a spike in violence literally across the globe, from the aggravation of border and military conflicts to civil wars. Old terrorist groups revived (and the Islamic State too), new ones appeared out of nowhere. We often see what the United States has become now, but the authors of the article list more than 40 countries, and some kind of nasty thing is going on everywhere. India, Lebanon, Mexico, Kenya, Philippines, Germany, Spain and further down the list: everywhere the people have gone berserk and something is crushing and breaking.
Note: everyone is dissatisfied, regardless of the severity of the anti-virus measures. So, in Sweden or Belarus, the people are dissatisfied with the governments for the fact that they did not quarantine people. And in France or Spain, governments are on the verge of failure for the opposite reason. And let's not talk about the obvious: about the unprecedented rage of those who put on masks towards those who do not, and vice versa. And this whole circus is just beginning ... (end of quote).
And the same thing that I talked about in April and May.
"Corona crisis" is different from the past "bubble crisis". This time, the machine of the business cycle will not just spin from the injection of money. An important detail broke in it, which can be called "a conceivable picture of the future."
The mass man suddenly discovered that all his plans for a season, for a year, for a five-year period, and even more so for a longer period, which looked quite reliable, suddenly collapsed. Moreover, it is in the mass person (and not in rare units, which are simply very unlucky).
The mass person (worker, farmer, merchant, clerk, and consumer) had all plans collapsed, and suddenly, and because the civilization, which he considered to be something stable and reliable, turned out to be a house of cards. The wind blew - and all plans fell apart, even for the season and for the year, not to mention longer periods. Moreover, the mass person found himself in a state of complete helplessness in front of an incomprehensible external force that deprived him of his own source of livelihood, and even freedom of movement in the literal sense.
Little of. The entire system of social ties, values, rules and laws fell apart. The mass man suddenly found himself plunged into a situation characteristic of war (only without, in fact, war).
Here it is necessary to clarify: man has no future in war. The entire planning horizon is limited to food and shelter issues today. Plans for tomorrow will appear tomorrow - if you're lucky to survive. It is not yet known whether you will be lucky or not, so there is nothing to make plans. The "trench flame" about who will do what after the war is not a plan, it is just one way to kill time (along with playing cards and retelling anecdotes). The specificity of war is that a person (if he is not wounded and not hungry) has a huge amount of completely extra time on it, which, in principle, has nothing to occupy. There are no constructive activities. There are no stable human relationships either. Relationships are limited to today - like all plans. Today there is a man, tomorrow he is not - so it makes no sense to build a relationship. This means that the feeling of responsibility is meaningless - it disappears as unnecessary.
... Panicky fear of a big war, as such, but at the same time - unable to do without it, modern empires gave rise to its emulation, now known as the "coronavirus pandemic". Probably, the calculation of the court analysts was that the emulation of war would not lead farmers to become marauders. Futile hopes. The transformation of the farmer -> the marauder takes place not as a result of the war itself, but according to the laws of psychodynamics (discovered by Freud), as a result of the perception of today's reality and the probable foresight of the future reality.
Further, with the interaction of different parts of a person's consciousness, emotional and motivational forces are generated that determine the state of mind and style of behavior. The farmer (and in general any productive entrepreneur, even a freelancer or a high-class worker) changes his style of behavior not because of the war, but because of the belief that no resources should be spent for the hope of fruit in the future.
Only those activities are comprehended that will bring consumer benefits IMMEDIATELY - i.e. in a few days, not in a few months, or a few years. Any civilized forms of consumption and investment lose their meaning if the event horizon of household and economic planning is limited to days. It was said above: earlier medieval economy was reversible in this sense, due to its compatibility with hunting and gathering. The economy of later eras was already, in the main, incompatible with such things.
The modern integrated and highly regulated economy is absolutely incompatible with such things. The transition from modern complex agrarian, industrial, commercial and financial, labor and family and household activities to social looting is irreversible. Point. It looks like this time the sedentary thieves have gotten themselves in for a big deal.
The idea of the “golden billion” political elite was to pause the lives of all plebeians, exclude their politicized communication, and reduce their level of material consumption to a biological minimum, while preserving such plebeian works as maintaining a minimum infrastructure. During the pause season (planned at least until the end of autumn), it was possible to smoothly deflate all financial bubbles and relieve the pension system. The latter is especially important: the degraded financial structure of the “golden billion” in the conditions of a naturally aging population could no longer fulfill its obligations to pensioners.
From the point of view of the interests of the political elite, the best way out of this situation would be the extinction of pensioners. Such extinction is not difficult to organize by depriving these pensioners of ordinary social assistance, and those who are placed in nursing homes - by creating conditions incompatible with life in old age. If people were ants, it would resemble the hibernation of an anthill, during which you can kill and eat "excess" and "unnecessary" individuals.
Such an "ant-like" plan, in general, was implemented in March-April (almost all the deaths, formally, from the coronavirus are retirees with an average age of 80+ years, and about half of the dead are residents of nursing homes) ...
... But people, not ants, and a modern country is not an anthill. The economy began to collapse rapidly, and ordinary people (plebeians) lost not only their livelihood, but also their life guidelines.
In such a situation, "alternative figures of influence" immediately revived - from the leaders of banal street gangs to the godfathers of mafias and leaders of extremist groups. They could now offer people their own (as it were, more reliable) guidelines - instead of the collapsed guidelines of the social-bourgeois persuasion. On the horizon loomed the ghost of the "European Spring" - by analogy with the "Arab Spring", inspired in North Africa and Western Asia in 2010.
A simple forecast showed that if the self-isolation scenario continues until summer, then the socio-economic organism will collapse completely, i.e. to such an extent that it was not destroyed even during the world wars.
Contrary to the original plan for a long pause, the governments involved in the conspiracy began to urgently cancel self-isolation measures, despite the fact that the figures of perverted statistics still show a terrible threat of infections and mass deaths. The artificial script has broken down, and now debriefing is on the agenda ...
... And here's the funny thing: everything that I said in April-May (see above) was obvious. But somehow it didn't look credible. Maybe because the orchestra continued to play on the deck of the Titanic? Social Psychology.