Posted 3 сентября 2020, 13:53
Published 3 сентября 2020, 13:53
Modified 25 декабря 2022, 20:55
Updated 25 декабря 2022, 20:55
After Bigan's arrival (US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Bigan, ed.), Consultations are underway between Moscow and Washington on the outcome of the Belarusian crisis, while Lukashenko is going to Moscow no later than September 10. The way out of the crisis will be discussed. This means that Putin and his staff are right these days thinking over their own scenario, which should be proposed to Lukashenko. There will be no concrete talk about integration, especially the signing of any "secret protocols".
The contours of the Kremlin's scenario are already clear in principle: the Kremlin is kicking Lukashenko in the direction of "dialogue with society." Actually, after talking with Putin, Lukashenko began actively declaring that he was ready for dialogue, repeating the "constitutional reform", etc. The problem is that Lukashenko wants to talk to an imaginary "society" (labor collectives, fields and rivers), but in reality he only has this protest movement and only these strike committees and the Constitutional Court, he is no longer able to build any other subject of negotiations ( this should have been done during the election campaign). The protesters have won: for three Sundays in a row they clearly show the whole world that it is useless to bring young people in Yabatka T-shirts by bus. It will not be possible to create a convincing "second shoulder" from them.
Putin will support Lukashenko only if Lukashenko undertakes to "settle" the situation through dialogue. If not, then he is the "blacksmith of his own happiness", the Kremlin will watch with sorrow on its face how Lukashenko is ruining the country, destroying the economy, and on the Kremlin TV they will show the same scheme as in Ukraine under Poroshenko: they say, "both are worse": And Lukashenko is leading the people to death, and the opposition is ruled from abroad, and "the common people are suffering". In this case, Putin will simply wait for the Belarusians to reach such a state that they say - no, it’s better to have Russian tanks right now than to endure this mess any longer.
If Lukashenko on September 10 agrees with "Putin's plan" (which, moreover, will be coordinated by Moscow with Berlin and Paris), then we will see it immediately - because the signal will be the release of Vitaly Shklyarov. This is achieved by Venediktov, that is, Alexei Gromov. And it's in Putin's folder.
Can Lukashenko convince Putin that we just need to crush the entire protest movement and all leaders and simply carry out constitutional reform on Lukashenko’s terms? Can. But so far it is questionable. Yes, the Kremlin media clearly show that they completely agree with Lukashenko's concept: to suppress the "orange contagion" and "Poland interferes in internal affairs." But we must look at the results of the September 10 meeting.
Coordination Council. These are great people, in my opinion. In an extremely difficult situation, with the Kremlin hanging over the whole situation, the Constitutional Court very subtly carried out its schooner between all the Scyllas and Charybdis: peaceful protest, no violence, no provocations, no radicalization, the struggle for international recognition (not unsuccessful), a very clear position expressed by all speakers : we do not prejudge any political choice - neither pro-Russian nor pro-European, we do not offer any economic, linguistic, church policy - we are the frontmen of the transition period, mediators of the people - the common goal is one - repeated elections are free. Then the parliamentary elections. And then all decisions will already be legitimate and a consequence of democratic procedures. The statements of the last two days are also correct: they are ready for a dialogue with the authorities on constitutional reform (but the authorities are not going to dialogue), they are ready to form a party - and accordingly demand early parliamentary elections.
Putin showed Lukashenko that he is responding to his requests: he left a billion, he made an unpleasant statement about the OMON troops' reserve. A meeting in Moscow is only possible if Lukashenko is carrying a convincing settlement plan. And if he is not there, then you do not need to go, you can call. But Lukashenko is in a bad state, he does not control himself, he cannot go to any dialogue, he is stifled by hatred of all these "negotiators".
He cannot remain in power - not only from the point of view of the European Union, Washington, the nearest neighboring countries, but also from the point of view of Moscow.
Therefore, nevertheless, I would think that Putin would tell him approximately what I would say: “In such a sad state, dear "AlesanGrigoryich", you can neither sign further papers on integration, nor carry out constitutional reform, we have already given 1 billion, we can give another 2 billion - this is not a problem, we can give 20. But not for you. Let's finish this whole crap culturally"...