Posted 7 сентября 2020,, 11:35
Published 7 сентября 2020,, 11:35
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
Financial analyst Alexey Nadezhin decided to find out how the major world currencies and gold have risen in ruble prices in recent years.
To do this, he compared his notes from January 2014 to today's courses.
So six years ago the American dollar was worth 35.1 rubles, the euro - 49.50, the British pound - 58.40, and the gold coins "St. George the Victorious" - 12,200 rubles. Today the picture is as follows:
The dollar is worth 75.7 rubles, the euro is 89.60, the British pound is 101, and the coins are 41,500 rubles. That is, the dollar has become 2.16 times more expensive, the euro - 1.81 times, the British pound - 1.73 times, and gold immediately 3.4 times! It is interesting that the spread (that is, the difference between the selling and buying prices of an asset) was the least for the dollar and the euro (less than 1%), while for the pound it was 3%, and for gold - 5%. But for some unknown reason the analyst has the biggest share in silver coins - 28.5%.
As a result, it turns out that the winners are those who kept their savings in gold, the price of which is hitting historic highs today. Approximately the same picture was observed in 1980, but then it sharply - twice - fell in price, and the same can happen now, so it is not clear whether it is necessary to rush to invest in gold today?
In general, the analyst believes that the financial situation in the world is such that there is no certainty about what will grow and what will fall.
We, of course, are interested not in why currencies and gold are growing, but why the ruble is falling. Here is what economist Yakov Mirkin has to say about this:
1) This year we began to earn much less currency. The basis for the stability of the ruble is a large positive balance of trade (excess of exports of goods over imports). This year the balance fell by more than 40%.
2) Apparently, a large export of capital from Russia, a lot of people who want to part with rubles, turn them into currency. Rubles are dropped, dollars and euros are bought for them. How does this happen? For example, in 2020, the external debt of Russia (both the state and banks and corporations) continues to be paid off, and to decrease. When it is extinguished, they pay in foreign currency and buy it for rubles. This means that there is more demand for it, less demand for rubles. As a result, the ruble has dropped.
3) In March 2020, Russian banks imported more than 3 times more cash into Russia than in March 2019 (CBR).
4) No state reserves to support the ruble appear to be affected. Russia's international reserves are not being wasted or falling, as in past crises. On the contrary, they only increased (probably also due to the growth of world prices for gold, there is a lot of it in the reserves), from $ 551 billion (March 20) to $ 591 billion (August 21). The National Welfare Fund (this is also a reserve) - from $ 165 billion in March to $ 177 billion in July.