Valentin Katasonov: "The construction of an electronic concentration camp can be and should be stopped"

“We still live in a madhouse. And what we call the economy is actually home destruction.

Within this model, we can only get dust.

Today the Russian ruble is very volatile, as they say, it is gradually depreciating. There are groups interested in weakening the ruble.

Well, if some radical events happen, then the complete destruction of the Russian ruble may simply occur.

2020 is a fateful, critical year. Now September is already on the calendar, and from my point of view, there will be a sharp exacerbation of the situation somewhere at the turn of September-October.

I am not acting in the role of any prophet or seer, everything is quite simply calculated.

I know that today many companies, enterprises, and banks too, are anxiously awaiting the expiration of tax and credit holidays, because many of them will not be able to cover their tax liabilities, loan liabilities and others, for example, related to rent.

So there will be massive bankruptcies of enterprises in the real sector of the economy, the service sector, and this will reach the banking sector. That is, massive bankruptcies are also expected among commercial banks.

I know that today many companies, enterprises, and banks too, are anxiously awaiting the expiration of tax and credit holidays and a moratorium on bankruptcy, because many of them will not be able to cover their tax liabilities, loan liabilities and others. such as related to rentals.

So there will be massive bankruptcies of enterprises in the real sector of the economy, the service sector, and this will reach the banking sector. That is, massive bankruptcies are also expected among commercial banks.

This is a very serious event. And the authorities are also calculating it, and therefore the option is not ruled out that these holidays and the moratorium will be extended for another six months.

But if it is so stupid to extend these vacations and this moratorium, then in another six months we will have a full cemetery, because then no one will be able to cover their obligations.

In fact, from the very beginning it was necessary to act in a completely different way. Either provide for the abolition of some taxes, at least for the period of an acute crisis, or carry out some kind of debt restructuring.

But I feel that the authorities will not use this entire set of the tools. Either it will be stupid to demand these taxes and loan debts, or it will be stupid to prolong the holidays and the moratorium.

And one more factor is superimposed on the autumn events, which seems to be far beyond the borders of Russia, I mean the American elections, which will be held on November 3.

Already now in the United States they are talking about Russia's interference in the beginning process of the election campaign. It is not difficult to guess that Russia will be accused of interfering in the pre-election and electoral processes, whatever the outcome.

And the American special services, especially the NSA, have already warned that this time they will not show cowardice, as in 2016, and will inflict cyber attacks on the Russian economy and on Russia as a whole.

In the best case, these strikes can block the work of enterprises in the real economy, the service sector, the banking sector, but in the worst case, they can even provoke some kind of man-made disasters.

For example, blocking any operations at a nuclear power plant is fraught with Chernobyl. So this is a very serious external factor.

Unfortunately, I do not see any serious measures on the part of the Russian authorities to possibly repel these attacks.

Yes, of course, we can say that there are statistics that show that only one out of ten or one hundred cyberattacks ends up with a positive result for the attacker.

But if there are thousands and thousands of such attacks, it will still be a very serious blow to Russia.

It's hard to say what will happen by the end of the year. But it is clear that if chaos and confusion begins in the country, then the Russian ruble may turn into dust in general.

We somehow devote a disproportionate amount of time to the issue of the ruble exchange rate.

In a normal economy, the ruble exchange rate should not be discussed, because the ruble is the national currency and we, as people participating in the process of economic creation, the consumption of goods and services, should be primarily interested in the purchasing power of the ruble, and not the exchange rate.

And the fact that we are constantly asking ourselves the question of what the exchange rate of the ruble will be means that even Russian legislation is being violated. This means that foreign currency circulates within Russia, is used, and this is a signal that "something is wrong in the Danish kingdom."

There must be a ruble in Russia. And when we stop discussing the exchange rate, it will mean that we are returning to a normal economy.

So far, nothing has changed for the better in our country.

After the change of the guard took place in January of this year - I mean, the government, a new team came, led by Mishustin.

The same entropy processes are continuing, perhaps they have even accelerated.

He, of course, is weakly versed in economics, but he is well versed, one might even say, he is well versed in two areas - digitalization of the economy and tax collection.

But then again, how exactly does he understand this? He receives a certain command and clearly executes it. But, unfortunately, both Mr. Mishustin and other members of the government, behind the trees, have little understanding of what a forest is.

It seems to them that they are building a bright digital future for Russia, but in reality they do not see these drawings, they are building some kind of walls, not realizing that these are the walls of an electronic concentration camp.

Ten years ago, I warned how digitalization could end. Today, even creative people - like Nikita Mikhalkov, already feel it.

I said, relying more on logic, and they rely more on the emotional component, but it is also needed.

So you must, of course, put on the brakes.

Some say that the process is running and cannot be stopped.

No, it can and should be stopped. And it's not that difficult".