Posted 1 октября 2020,, 11:59
Published 1 октября 2020,, 11:59
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:38
Analyst Alexey Bozhov wrote on his blog about the prospects for the Russian economy amid ongoing sanctions:
“As you know, the first package of sanctions against the Russian Federation included a ban on the supply of equipment for the oil and gas industry. Then in Moscow they laughed and through tears of laughter talked about the fact that equipment suppliers would naturally go down the drain without their orders. If they knew what would happen in 6 years, in the spring of 2020, they would not be like Zadornov, who talked about a plane that is heavier than air.
It turned out that it was necessary to stop oil production in conditions when the renewal requires special and categorically imported equipment. When it became clear, the laughing loafers who called themselves oilmen, but did not even have a technical, not to mention special, education - somehow became imperceptible. Moreover, it turned out that if it were not Muscovy, but Arabia, then all manipulations would have been limited to twisting and unscrewing the valve, but Muscovy is not Arabia.
Surprisingly, a country living on the export of oil and gas has not created an industry that could provide its source of prosperity with the necessary iron. Even worse, the country's leadership turned out to be so stupid that it managed to completely ruin relations not only with the suppliers of the necessary equipment, but also with the buyers of oil and gas. And it turned out that this is not a coincidence, but a deeply systemic problem.
Moscow has long and persistently rushed around with its "high-tech" wunderwolf, the Superjet passenger plane. At the very apogee of this story, Moscow was seriously discussing what piece of the air transportation market could be squeezed out of Airbus and Boeing, but in the end it turned out that they agreed to take the wunderwaffe on such terms that competitors would not even talk about. As a result, this flying carpet flies, with varying success, over the open spaces of the leper colony, since from far abroad all the "iron birds" have been returned back.
At that very time of maximum euphoria from their greatness in Moscow, they promised to roll out another wunderwaffe, in pair with the Superjet - MS-21. And now it turns out that these projects are very similar to the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation. They learned to drill holes and cook round pipes. That's all. The rest was imported from the decaying West.
It turned out that "high-tech" aircraft presuppose the use of high-tech components and assemblies exclusively imported, or rather, Western-made, and without the supply of all this good, there will be no high technologies or the airplanes themselves. Moreover, even already produced machines cannot be operated without the supply of spare parts, all the same components and assemblies. And it turned out, according to the Russian press, something like this.
“Shpak, Director of the Department of the Radio-Electronic Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, said that a number of foreign companies that supply ready-made systems for Russian civil aircraft have refused to cooperate. Our foreign partners who supply ready-made systems for our aircraft, someone publicly, someone secretly, informed our aircraft manufacturers that they will not continue relations with our aircraft manufacturers either under existing contracts or under new contracts"
It seems that Muscovy is gradually approaching the status of Iran, which also has huge reserves of oil and gas, but now it does not have the necessary equipment or markets for its products. In this regard, the figure noted:
"Further restrictions may affect microelectronics, Shpak said, adding that Russia urgently needs to create its own radio-electronic industry, otherwise it will be too late".
They are now going to create microelectronics! Not 10 or 20 years ago, but now. And most importantly, they are going to create it only because they are going to be bullied to the last instead of removing the reasons for the sanctions. Well, as they say among Russian scientists from Skolkovo “Evening in the house, an hour in joy”. And most importantly, there is not quite a lot of work there, you just need to replace imports. As it was in the old song about the Island of Bad Luck: "They would have Mondays, take and replace", so here, they would take electronics and replace.
"The manufacturer Sukhoi Superjet 100 will also have to replace imports - this will require 120-130 billion rubles".
Although, the last sum just speaks of how correct this idea is. Mastering such a loot is worth a lot..."