Posted 8 октября 2020, 10:26
Published 8 октября 2020, 10:26
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:36
The second wave of coronavirus is gaining momentum, however, it turns out that people were completely unprepared for it, and, like six months ago, during the first wave, they are happy to be divided into covid skeptics and covidoalarmists. However, there are still more of the latter.
Moscow doctor Andrey Tikhmyanov, who himself had had covid, writes in this regard:
“My opinion about the second wave.
Network analyst Evgeny Kuznetsov tried to figure out what humanity can oppose to the coronavirus, which does not even think to yield:
“Around again various“ clever people ”have become active, who indulge the philistine desire to turn away from the impending heavy “something”, and are trading with might and main in various explanations. In this wave, covidoskeptics no longer behave like complete idiots, and arguments like “it's just the flu” or “more dying from tuberculosis” are already being used only by the most stubborn. But the problem remains - the "expert community", which society turns to in a desire to understand what is happening, itself does not understand a damn thing, and is mainly engaged in empty verbiage.
What the situation shows if you look at it soberly.
Alas, the second wave has begun. There were timid hopes that a certain "immunity" revealed in the spring, developed not for covid, but for related coronaviruses (causing mild ARVI), would bring us closer to herd immunity earlier than with the required spread of the main virus. Unfortunately no. As soon as favorable climatic conditions arose for the virus, it manifested itself in full.
Why don't people understand what humanity is facing? Where does this idle chatter come from, which becomes the fault of massive non-compliance with the necessary measures to contain the epidemic? There are several reasons.
First, there is a very low level of knowledge in biology. Therefore, a complete lack of understanding of the fact that a new virus that has entered the population poses a much greater danger to people than any "habitual" one. And a person's immunity to it is practically not trained, and medicine does not have clear and most importantly effective methods of containment. While herd immunity is developed, and while doctors learn to treat a new disease, the level of spread of the virus will become very significant. And this is a terrible threat, considering how dangerous and unpleasant the course of the disease is.
Second, in Russian society there is no understanding of what an exponential process is. And that is why everyone is stubbornly trying to draw conclusions from "today", not realizing that "tomorrow" has already been programmed by inexorable processes. The exponential growth of the spread of the virus means that if today is still "normal", then tomorrow it will be "very bad", but people do not know how to think so, they hope for a miracle, for "the curve will take out", for anything.
Third, the authorities (both political and medical) themselves are in a panic, because they do not know how to manage crises of this magnitude and current. More precisely, not so - there are simple protocols for combating epidemics that saved humanity before, but taking into account the scale and characteristics of the virus (the above-mentioned "novelty" for the population), the use of classical epidemiological schemes will lead to complete paralysis of life. A grave dilemma arises - what can be limited in society without losing its capacity for work, which will be sufficient to slow down the growth of the epidemic.
And all this, as I said above - in conditions of high nonlinearity of the process, when it is worth a little too "weakened", rapid growth will begin.
Sweden conducted an experiment - it paid with the lives of thousands of old people who would not have died if comparable measures were applied, as in Denmark, Norway, etc. In the end, collective immunity did not arise, and therefore, was this price justified? And the economy has not suffered much less.
No ready-made "proven" schemes for stopping the epidemic have appeared - there are successful cases from Singapore and South Korea, but they are based on such massive testing that no one else has been able to reproduce.
In other words, we meet the second wave with approximately the same set of imperfect means as in the first. The quality of treatment for severe patients has improved slightly - there will be less deaths. But only if there is no overflow of the bed fund, which means that mortality becomes a direct consequence of the effectiveness of public measures to limit the growth of the epidemic.
In fact, some form of quarantine and distancing is the only thing that worked in the spring and is working now. And it is this last hope of people that is being destroyed by covid skeptics.
It is paradoxical and unpleasant, but the most imperfect institution of modern society is the ability to trust specialists, not demagogues. Specialists (unlike the laymen) understand that each individual quarantine event does not guarantee success. Every barrier is breakable for the virus. But the more such barriers are built, the higher the chances that they will work. The masks are not perfect, but in combination with distancing, increased hygiene, limiting the spread through "covert channels" (such as children), this is slowly starting to work. Now it is fashionable to take one tool out of context and criticize it, but the whole system works, and that's the only way.
Here's a concrete example - with masks. They are known to work effectively only when they are (and correctly) worn by the patient (!). Healthy mask protects weakly. But it shields the patient well, reducing the harm from him. Taking into account the fact that with covid, the patient becomes a distributor a day or two before the onset of the disease in full, this becomes a decisive factor - it is those who are sure that "I am healthy" and are the main engine of epidemics. And this means that wearing a mask is an act of responsibility (adulthood) and solidarity, a willingness to sacrifice minimal convenience for the sake of other people. But in our country it is not fashionable to be in solidarity and take care of others - every man for himself, and therefore there are so many "offended" from a simple demand.
The epidemic has clearly divided societies into those where solidarity is the basic code - and this is Germany, the Scandinavian countries, Japan, China - and there are exemplary low rates of morbidity and mortality. And those where solidarity is not honored, or there are social habits that hinder it (as in Spain and Italy). It turns out that the basic property of a person's relationship to other people - caring or bestial - is a more effective way of defeating the virus than spending billions on the pharmaceutical industry. But after all, "they are obliged to treat us," and "we owe nothing to anyone". And in the end, people die, those who could well have survived if someone took care not only of themselves.
Unfortunately, the severity of prohibited measures is a direct consequence of people's inability to self-organize. In notorious Sweden, people themselves followed all the rules, and no special prohibitions were required from the authorities. If everyone himself, to the best of his responsibility, could take all the necessary measures to prevent the spread of the virus (and the media and networks would not spread the blizzard, but calmly explain what, why and why), then many restrictions could not have been introduced. But alas. There is no reason to hope for the consciousness of people.
In general, on the threshold of the second wave, which has already started faster than the first, thoughts are the most difficult. It would be nice if the vaccines still work and are safe and are made quickly. But it is too early to hope for this..."