Posted 16 октября 2020, 08:02
Published 16 октября 2020, 08:02
Modified 24 декабря 2022, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022, 22:36
Futurist Sergei Pereslegin told about this on his YouTube channel.
“First of all, the most important thing: the policy of the West has completely changed in relation to Russia.
The West has moved away from a fairly mutually beneficial policy of sanctions, which, by the way, began, in fact, even before the Crimean events - it was slowly growing since the events in Abkhazia in 2008.
The mutual benefit of the sanctions was understandable, because the West at the same time sharply reduced the cost of subsidies for its agriculture, and could also strongly influence the ways and prospects of Russia's development, but it is beneficial for Russia as well, since it has the opportunity to develop those technologies, those industries, which do not develop in the global world, because it is easier to buy, to make weeks yourself. In the sanctions regime, you cannot buy and you must do it yourself, and in some scenarios this is very, very important.
So, since 2018, the West has moved from sanctions to blockade. And the blockade is a completely different structure.
A blockade is a limitation of the enemy's capabilities in any area in which he is only trying to show at least some activity.
The blockade is political, economic, diplomatic, financial, cultural, scientific, sports, in the field of macro-regional design, construction... I put an ellipsis.
Whatever the blockaded country does, its capabilities in this area will necessarily be limited.
The essence of the blockade is that its pressure is constantly growing.
And at the moment we have to admit that neither Kaiser's Germany, nor Hitler's, nor the Soviet Union could find an adequate answer to the blockade policy of the West.
The coming years will show whether the Russian Federation can do it.
But it goes without saying that the West sees Russia in the future. And in the Sixth technological order. We have a place in this order.
Yes, of course, the place is very "subordinate", rigidly structured, in this way we will belong to the countries of the third world, but it must be borne in mind that out of more than two hundred states on the earth's surface, in a new way to the first, second or at least the third world will be treated, well if 20 - 25 countries. Rather, even less.
And in this regard, being here, albeit in the last positions, is still the Major League.
Why does the West keep us in these positions?
Well, firstly, for reasons of tradition, and secondly, from a simple understanding that they know what Russia is and how to play with it. A holy place is never empty: Russia will leave, some other country will take its place. Whether it will be Korea, or Iran, or Malaysia, or, for example, the Eastern Benelux Union, or someone else, is difficult to determine now.
But, in any case, the West is completely unprepared to get a new player and spend the next thirty or forty years to sort things out with him.
Thus, Russia will be in the Sixth order. Her position is clear there.
And the Russian leadership in this regard has set its own tasks for digitalization. This is precisely the transition to the digital economy, the creation of the periphery of the paradigm, the system of access to the services of this paradigm.
In itself, this would not be good news. But the fact is that Russia remains Russia and therefore now it is playing a game: “yes, we agree with digitalization, but...”. And this "but" is very interesting.
This year we began to understand that the Sixth, like all technological orders, especially in the post-globalization environment, will be divided not only into levels - the first, second, third world, but also into separate worlds of technology.
And in this regard, the creation of a world of technology may well change Russia's position in the Sixth order.
We will make a figure, we will secure this position. But this year's experience tells me that we will be doing at least two new worlds of technology.
The first is already being done. This is svetonics - a combination of photonic technologies, an exit to photonics without electronic elements, that is, to purely photonic elements.
This provides tremendous opportunities both for computers and for sensors, but, of course, these are also colossal difficulties.
Nevertheless, work in this direction is going on. There is a cluster, it is developing, and gradually sets tasks for expansion.
That is, the transition from optical instruments such as optical gyroscopes is an extremely interesting, good and popular thing, to the creation of purely photonic devices, and then the transition to biophotonics, transport photonics and many other elements.
This is a new world of technology. And it seems to me that 2018 was a turning point in this regard.
We passed from talking about this world to its direct creation. So thank you, first of all, to the Perm Photonics Cluster, then to the St. Petersburg ITMO, which is actively involved in this topic. I will also mention the Central Research Institute "Electron", which develops very interesting photonic components.
There are already completely sold products that are in great demand in Russia, and would be sold on the world market, only who will let them there.
And the second technological world is still at the stage of preliminary design.
But it is very likely that the most serious changes are beginning in such areas characteristic of Russia as geology, geochemistry and geophysics.
And we assume that on the basis of all this, it will be possible to create first a scientific and then a production cluster and the corresponding technological packages.
This is the world of geoengineering technologies and this is another possible response of Russia to the challenges of the future.
Have I told you about a spoonful of honey in a fly in the ointment?
But seriously, advances in areas such as photonics and geophysics are much more important than any lag in managerial, administrative and other decisions. In an amicable way, this is more important than the blockade. For it is technically impossible to organize a blockade in the absent world of technology, which only the enemy has and only he is created.
In short, despite all the forecasts that the next year may turn out to be even more difficult, we have grounds for reasonable and correct optimism. We have directions of movement".