The decline in the population of Russia has already been recognized as catastrophic even at the official level. The massive granting of citizenship to migrants does not help, nor can it help. According to many forecasts, by the end of the 21st century, and maybe even earlier, there will be half of us, and it is not a fact that the rest will speak Russian. The well-known epidemiologist and demographer Igor Gundarov spoke about this acute problem and the ways out of such a neglected situation on the ROY TV YouTube channel.
“Until now, it was like this: the tragedy of demographic processes - they have been going on since the early 1990s - was not perceived realistically. There was an accumulation of catastrophic, as they say, this "level of no return". And outwardly it seemed that the fewer people, the better; indeed, it turned out that way.
It is striking - and this was revealed during the coronavirus - that politicians, completely distraught with narcissism about their status, decided that they understood everything. Including the coronavirus.
Up to the point that one of the deputies, in my opinion, the State Duma, said, turning to the doctors: you didn’t hold your tongue, talk to each other about masks, vaccines, gloves, but don’t speak out loud, don’t spoil the picture for us, don’t interfere us, politicians, to manage the health of the population.
This is the level of morality. And now the same is happening in the field of demography.
Having come to power in 2000, Vladimir Vladimirovich rightly said that there is nothing worse than the demographic threat that continued in those years, and if this continues, we will lose the nation.
So Putin said. Twenty years ago.
And what did he have to do? It was necessary to urgently call demographers, preventive medicine specialists, so that they would tell him how and what.
And this has never been done!
Again, the authorities decided that they understand.
Like, well, what is it - am I not able to control the birth rate? Yes I can! Can't deal with mortality? Yes, everything is elementary. I will build twenty high-tech care centers where coronary artery bypass grafting and vascular transplantation will be performed - and this will save the day.
In terms of fertility, there was such a thought that everything depends on money, that they do not give birth, because there is not enough money. And we, demographers, scientists were ringing bells: it won't work like that! But nobody listened to us.
Vladimir Vladimirovich even proudly said that they told me that there would be no effect, but we went across the opinion of scientists and turned out to be right.
When it was decided that women do not give birth because they are poor, this maternity capital was introduced, then it was 250,000 rubles. And the birth rate began to rise.
And then Medvedev says: I am amazed how our Russian women are greedy for money! That was about the same phrase he had, a little with a mockery.
In the West, in order to stimulate the birth rate, there should be large sums, but here a small one was allocated - and everyone ran to give birth.
And I was so offended to hear that ...
But the most interesting thing is that mortality was actually decreasing and the birth rate was increasing. And the authorities, again, not knowing the laws of demography, ascribed this to themselves.
And the maternity capital itself could not be obtained immediately, only in the third year, and then - into two categories: housing and education. That is, its material effect was zero.
And so we said that the birth rate is growing for other reasons, not because of maternity capital, and mortality has been decreasing since 2003, not for economic reasons, but for others. And the authorities ascribed it to themselves.
And now it's time to pay off.
And we looked at the effect of maternity capital on fertility. Fertility has dropped! Fertility at young ages - 18 to 24 years old - has collapsed. And now - even more so.
The mortality rate dropped to this money, and then it stopped and now began to grow. And then the authorities were at a loss: what to do?
Once in the next twenty years, demographics will be our top priority; we need to know some benchmarks.
This means that in order for the nation not to disappear, but to keep the number constant, there should be approximately "two and two" children for every woman of reproductive age - or for every couple, family. Why "two and two"? So that a man and a woman leave behind two people too.
But due to the fact that there is child and adolescent mortality, two are not enough. Therefore, conditionally - "two and two" children per woman of reproductive age. Then the number of the nation will be constant.
And if there is “one and one child,” then the nation will shrink. This reproductive nucleus will be halved in 25 years. And I introduced such a concept - the half-life of the reproductive nucleus. And this is without war, epidemics, and so on.
What is our indicator now? Instead of "two and two" - "one and five". This means that this "half-life" is 37 years. That is, in 37 years old people will still live, they will have a long time, and the reproductive nucleus will be reduced by half.
But what are the goals Putin set for us in the national project.
By 2035, have a total fertility rate of 1.75. But you need to have “two and two”! That is, in fact - it's scary to say - the president planned to reduce the number of the indigenous population.
And behind the beautiful words about “economic recovery”, “we are expanding”, “Russia has recovered from the crisis and sanctions”, “we need workers”, “we need migration” - in fact, there is no economic recovery, it's just a shortage of people.
And so, in order to hide the planned reduction of the indigenous population, there is a replacement by an alien ethnic group.
That is, centuries-old, thousand-year-old Russia ... The territory will remain the same. And the city of Moscow will probably be called the same. But there will already be other peoples, other nations with greater fertility than ours.
And I must say that the birth rate is about the same in the West.
You need two and two. And one and eight mean the nation is disappearing. All Western countries are downsizing. Here Merkel talks about multiculturalism, they bring in Arabs, blacks ... Because of multiculturalism, do you think? Their birth rate is low! Therefore, in France, already a third of the population are blacks, who provide the required number.
... When Vladimir Vladimirovich began to throw money actively, there were no conferences, meetings, he seemed to say - we figured it out without you, money decides everything.
And I once spoke in the State Duma and said that it is necessary to take care of men's health and women's health, because the concentration of sperm ...
But when the State Duma heard the word "sperm", everyone blushed like girls, plugged their ears: "Igor Alekseevich, we came to talk about national security, and you tell us about sperm!" And I say, without them there will be no national security!
And I was the first among demographers to tackle this issue.
And now I come to an optimistic strategic conclusion: many do not give birth, and childless want to have children, but do not have, - why? Definitely not because of the money. Definitely not because of the environment. And from what?
And so we began to include the psyche here. Does fertility depend on the state of mind, on confidence, on calmness, on the joy of life? And this is already shown at the level of the animal world ...
It became clear that anxiety, fear, panic, uncertainty affect the men not for the better. Plus this advertisement, naked bodies, pornography, fashion, when a naked navel, and a man looks at it - and there is no "way out" for this, and there is a drop in craving for the opposite sex, libido decreases. It's easier to look on the Internet, there it is all there, but here you need to get acquainted, greet, take care ...
I beg your pardon, of course, but these are very important things - we must know what we are born from: there should be 60 spermatozoa per 1 milliliter of semen.
How much now? And now in Moscow - well, somewhere 10 will be typed ... Or even eight. That is, the concentration is reduced several times.
I looked around the world: the same situation. A sharp deterioration in activity and a reduction in the number of these "combat elements". Moreover, so powerful that the WHO got scared and began to lower the standards.
Let's say that in the 60s it was 60 million sperm in the semen, then 40 million, then 20 million, and now 12 million is considered the lower limit of the norm. It's like the norm was 32 teeth, then 28, then 16, and now there are 4 teeth to put dentures from below and from above - well, that's fine!
Here's what's going on with this case. And with such a concentration, nothing will come of it. What caused this? Psychodemography!
The mental state has, as I said, the strongest effect on the reproductive system of both men and women.
And now we have an epidemic in our country, more precisely, it is not only in the country, but around the world - a pandemic of psychogenic infertility!
…Life is more complicated now. Now, not only according to Marx, there should be - being determines consciousness, but consciousness also determines being! We need to turn on the brains.
Just as communism took everything positive from capitalism and went further, so we must take everything positive from communism and go further in order to build a new socio-economic formation. The image is already there.
One of the main guidelines: the goal now must be a Human. Until now, the economy has been the goal, and the person is the means. But now a person should become a goal, and the economy should be a means.
This is the first slogan of the new system that is to come".
You can watch the whole conversation with Igor Gundarov here.