Posted 3 ноября 2020,, 13:25
Published 3 ноября 2020,, 13:25
Modified 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Updated 24 декабря 2022,, 22:36
Today one of the main events of the year in world politics will take place - the presidential elections in the USA. It is their results that will largely determine how international relations will develop in the next four years. Network analysts generally make rather gloomy predictions, since neither Trump nor Biden are the undisputed leaders of public opinion. However, they see the triumph of democracy in the unpredictability of both the election results and the policy of the future president. Like the popular blogger Nikolay Podoskorsky:
“Democracy is not only a regular change of power, but also the unpredictability of election results. In this sense, four years ago, I was very perplexed: what then is the difference between the elections in the United States and the elections in the Russian Federation, if the winner is always known in advance both here and there? This is how the FB feed and the media I read convinced me of the inevitability of Hillary Clinton's victory. For some reason, I especially remember the economist Sonin, who cited in the Albats program some calculations indicating that Trump was doomed to failure (now I ignore his predictions). Now everything is repeated almost one to one. Again from all the cracks trumpets about the guaranteed victory of the Democratic candidate Biden. And I really do not like it, this self-confidence and hatefulness. Reminds us of the situation where everything is a foregone conclusion. In short, I am for unpredictability. This is the power of democracy. The American and Russian elections should be somehow different! Let Trump surprise everyone this time too!"
Political analyst Ostap Karmody generally stated that if he were an American, he would not vote for any of the candidates at all:
“Both candidates seem bad to me. Trump is an excellent irritant for the old oligarchy, which considers itself to be the highest caste, the Brahmins, who are destined to rule ordinary people by their very destiny and who are allowed what the plebs are not allowed (a recent example is the story of Pelosi's visit to the hairdresser). Unfortunately, he annoys not only her, but also about half of America - exactly how much we find out today. America and the whole world need changes, but these changes cannot be brought about by a person who, with all his behavior, deliberately introduces a split into society and serves as a catalyst for the blackest passions, and on both sides. Trump is a road to nowhere, a dead-end branch of political evolution. To vote for him is like knocking on a tightly closed door.
But Biden is no better. It's not even a dead-end branch, it's a living fossil. The representative of the very oligarchy, which considers itself in the right to rule simply because it is its right. And with this arrogance of his, he introduces a split in society a little worse than Trump. Trump's election itself is a direct result of the eight-year rule of Biden and his friends. To vote for Biden - to rewind the tape 8 years ago to watch the same film again with the second coming of the new Trump at the end - and not the fact that the new Trump will not be worse than the old one.
The main question now is not which candidate is better - both are bad. The main question is what will happen after their election. Or, to be more precise, how will those who now, in my deep conviction, act as the main danger to America and the world.
The main danger is not Trump or Biden. These are the new radicals of the left, building their entire policy on the division of society into races, classes and countless genders and are the perfect example of the saying "divide and rule".
If Trump is elected, these people will be enraged. The second Trump election will be a gigantic trauma for them, and the response to this trauma will be denial and aggression. Pogroms, purges of "hidden racists" and witch hunts will intensify many times over, perhaps by an order of magnitude.
If Biden is elected, these people will feel victorious. Biden probably doesn't like them, they spoiled a lot of blood for him, but you don't need to think that he and the Democratic Party can shake them off like some kind of flea. They have already strengthened, drilled holes, metastasized. A lot of them. They will occupy not the first and maybe not even the second, but very important posts in the new administration and, if Biden is elected, they will be the ones who will manage the day-to-day work of American political institutions and quietly plant their policies and values no longer through universities, the media and Hollywood. but directly through the power structures.
Both options are bad. The question is not which one is better, the question is which one is worse. I personally think that the second is worse - the wave of rage will eventually subside if Trump is elected, but the seizure of institutions if Biden is elected will remain and will not go anywhere even under the next Republican administration.
But I may well be wrong. It may be that the Democrats, by some miracle, still manage to curb the extreme left, and Trump's election will heat up passions so that the wave of hatred will not subside, but turn into a civil war. It is impossible to predict in advance.
So I don’t want to give any advice on which of these two candidates to vote for.
I can’t suggest voting for the third candidate, the libertarian Joe Jorgensen, just to avoid choosing the lesser evil. Jorgensen, according to her statement, seems to me to be no less evil than Trump and Biden, because from these statements a mile away gives off an organ, a worn-out record. Everything I read from her reinforces my conviction that she is not saying what she thinks, but the "right things" that, in her opinion, someone wants to hear. Take her statement at the start of the campaign that "It's not enough not to be racist, you have to be active anti-racist." A true libertarian candidate may tell you what not to do (not to violate the freedoms of others), but he will not tell you what to do and certainly will never, under any circumstances, tell you what you need to think.
Probably, being an American, I would not vote for any of the candidates tomorrow, but I’m not sure about that either - too much is at stake now.
The only thing I can say with confidence is that I very much hope that the Senate will remain Republican.
The lower house of Congress will definitely remain democratic. And it will serve as enough guarantee that Trump, if elected, will do something terrible.
But if Biden is elected and both houses of Congress fall under the control of the Democrats, it's scary to imagine what laws and decisions their radical left wing can push through..."
But American citizen, network analyst Zhenya Lin is still leaning towards Biden's candidacy, whose election will help avoid further radicalization of American politics:
“I don’t know what the election result will be. The polls talk about a fairly confident victory for Biden, but in the past elections the polls also spoke about Clinton. Therefore, I do not want to trust the questionnaires. And I read a carriage and a small cart of articles that convinced that the questionnaires in 2016 were practically correct, I am still quite critical of them. Tomorrow's elections will finally show whether they should be believed or considered as a political atavism.
The enthusiasm of Trump fans is as high as in the previous elections. Biden is clearly a less repulsive candidate among the Democrats, especially compared to Clinton. Trump's victory is naturally very possible, but if it was a big enough surprise last time, then it will be an even bigger surprise this time. I still believe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump of all the Democratic candidates.
American politics has become extremely radical. The situation is as follows: attempts to paint Biden as the leader of the extreme left radicals is an absolute lie and has nothing to do with objective reality.
At the same time, even if Trump is ideologically not an extreme right-wing radical, this is for the only reason that he has no ideology at all.
Nevertheless, it is Trump who is "weaponizing" far-right radical sentiments for his victory. Namely, the paleo-conservatism of Pat Buckenon's Spill, which two decades ago was completely rejected by the Republican electorate, but has now become the leading dogma of the party.
Therefore, the choice for me is quite simple: between Trump's radicalism and Biden's boring political establishment - I choose Biden. The only way to get back from radical American politics is to vote for him.
The wildest sophistry of Trumpism is that Trumpists point to the extreme left as an excuse for Trump's actions.
The cynicism and intellectual dishonesty of their position is that the boring center-left Biden cannot be attributed to the radical left. While Trump constantly relies precisely on extremely radical elements.
One "stand back and stand by" is worth it. That is why an example of an intellectual lie for me is when a person tries to put an "equal" sign between Trump's radical rhetoric and project the radical rhetoric of the left or some congressmen onto Biden as Trump's justification.
The presence of left-wing radicals does not mean that Biden is radical. While Trump relies precisely on radicalism.
The description of Biden, especially on the pages of the FB, among the president's supporters is just an unsuccessful caricature.
And Trump is exactly who he is and takes our politics into even greater radicalism, completely splitting our society into pieces. With his re-election, American politics will become even more unbearably explosive.
So I hope that Biden wins, and then if he becomes president, I promise you that I will also write critically about left-wing politicians as I wrote about Trump.
But first, we must expel the most anti-intellectual, authoritarian president in the history of our country from the White House.
And I am absolutely convinced that after another four years of Trump, America will never be the America that we know and love, just as we could not have imagined four years ago that the country would be on the brink of civil war. That they will threaten the governors, not trust medical specialists and intelligence. And over 230 thousand people will die as a result of the careless actions of the administration..."
This choice goes far beyond the limits of, in fact, political competition of groups of special interests.
It is a choice between old America and new America.
Political analyst Maria Snegovaya, also living in the United States, is convinced that a split in American society cannot be avoided in any case:
“I rarely comment on American politics, but in this case the elections looming on us on November 3 are too important to be completely silent.
1) I see a frequent opinion that the election of Biden will restore "normalcy" in American politics, that, they say, Trump was a short-term aberration, and now everything will return to normal. In my opinion, it will not return, since the very election of Trump and subsequent events revealed a deep split among Americans over a number of basic questions about the direction of the country's development. This split is not going anywhere. Perhaps we are witnessing a reformatting of the US political system, since the belief is spreading on both the right and the left that the current party system does not reflect the interests of Americans (hence the growth of dislike for the establishment, radicalization, etc.)
2) Betrayal of left-wing intellectuals. This summer, it has become particularly noticeable how the intellectual class, whose task is to contain the destructive instincts of the crowd, itself rushes first in its vanguard. They supported everything - the demolition of monuments, vandalism, looting, erosion of the basic values on which the founding fathers built the United States. It became clear that the destruction of culture occurs when the very class that is called to protect it renounces it.
3) The disappearance of the media. The media ceased to exist. They simply lost the ability and desire to give an objective, independent assessment of events. Instead of the media in their traditional form, we today have a continuation of the electoral machine of both parties, which are involved in an ongoing election campaign and distort the facts in accordance with the needs of the moment.
4) Rapid radicalization, especially on the left. A phenomenon called wokeness is a passionate struggle for social justice based on the belief that the United States is founded on fundamentally flawed principles and values. Trump (and his supposed horror) seem to legitimize this radicalization, give it an excuse.
5) There is no faith in democracy. Every side, right and left, no longer believes in how America's democracy today functions. Neither the Trumpists on the right nor the Democrats on the left are willing to acknowledge and respect the choice of the other side. For Democrats, the Trumpists are a duped redneck with a gun who is unable to recognize their interests and vote intelligently. In addition, voices on the left are increasingly being heard against the electoral college system, which enables a minority of the population to impose its choice on the majority. For the Trumpists, the establishment is a conspiracy of corrupt elites that do not represent the interests of ordinary Americans.
6) In matters of foreign policy, I do not expect fundamental changes. Biden has a good team in Russia, but she is unlikely to be able to do something fundamentally new. a) The struggle of the Democrats against fracking can raise oil prices, which is beneficial for Russia. b) In an effort to contain Trump, both parties in Congress have carried out several sanctions packages against the Kremlin in recent years. Under Biden, they will not have such an incentive to impose new sanctions. c) Mainly, internal division within the country forces American politicians to concentrate on the problems of the United States, not to dissipate resources on the problems of other countries, and increases the tendency towards isolationism. Isolationism began at least under Obama (or the 2008 crisis) and will not end with Trump..."