Armenia's defeat in Karabakh strengthened Turkey's position in the region

As you know, in accordance with the agreement concluded yesterday between the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia, Armenia is withdrawing its troops from Karabakh, and Russian peacekeepers are being brought in in their place. The front line is fixed - observers and peacekeepers will be deployed along it. The occupied regions of Azerbaijan, which were not part of the administrative borders of Karabakh, are returned to Azerbaijan. The Armenian opposition is outraged by the incident, a clash took place in the parliament.

The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of Armenia issued a statement in which they recognized the impossibility of further resistance. The statement says that "the army did everything possible and impossible to resist the enemy, but the time has come to stop the bloodshed".

In connection with this end of the Karabakh war, pro-Kremlin telegram channels sarcastically state that Armenia lost half of Karabakh due to the fact that it staged a “color revolution” in which the pro-Western leader Nikol Pashinyan came to power: “This is what colored revolutions: Armenians staged a revolution and lost half of Karabakh. The Ukrainians staged the Maidan and lost the Crimea, DPR and LPR. The Georgians staged a Rose Revolution and lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia..."

However, at the same time, for some reason they are silent about the fact that not only Armenia, but also Russia itself has lost, having lost its political influence in the entire Transcaucasia.

Here is what a network analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan writes about this:

“While the new configuration of the situation in Karabakh is not yet fully clear, but in fact, Karabakh is completely lost for Armenia, and a special order will be introduced on its remnants, which are not occupied by the Azerbaijani army and not voluntarily transferred to Azerbaijan, which will be ensured by the peacekeepers. Turkey, in fact, created a new Idlib and put it on paper.

The capture of Shusha and the downed Russian helicopter were quite understandable arguments that forced them to urgently sign an unconditional surrender. Turkey did not even consider it necessary to sign the trilateral document on the new state of affairs in Karabakh. Aliyev signed for her by proxy.

In Armenia, of course, there are many who disagree with this situation, it was to them that Pashinyan turned with an exemplary text - no one bothered you to show patriotism in Karabakh itself. But now his political future is under obvious threat.

... And one more remark about the Karabakh surrender. When Turkey’s participation in the war had already become frank and obvious, I wrote that Erdogan’s interest is not the victory in Karabakh itself (although it is, as a necessary condition, and obligatory), but rather “hanging” the situation in an uncertain position. That is, a victory, but not final. It is in this case that Turkey gets the right to bring its forces into Azerbaijan as peacekeepers and to stay in the Transcaucasus for an unlimited length of time.

This is exactly what Erdogan did. Victory has been achieved, but not final. And the point here is not that Putin was allowed to save face - Erdogan does not care about the streaks of cosmetic substances on his partner's face. But the task of Turkey's military-political presence in the region is much more important. Now Erdogan has defended the Southern Gas Corridor in the most vulnerable area and received a bridgehead for access to the Caspian Sea and further to the Central Asia zone".

Journalist Dmitry Kolezev predicts that the attitude of Armenians towards Russia after these events will worsen even more:

“Yesterday Azerbaijani PR specialists tried to place materials with the headline“ Azerbaijan won the war in Nagorno-Karabakh ”in the Russian media, but today there is no need to publish anything: indeed, he won. Armenia and Azerbaijan, through the mediation of Russia, concluded a peace, while in fact Armenia lost the war, since Azerbaijan will receive a significant part of the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by the time of the signing of the peace agreements. Nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers are being deployed to the region to ensure compliance with peace agreements for five years, and maybe more.

So, Azerbaijan (with the support of Turkey) undoubtedly won the war. Armenia lost - because of which the political career of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan hung in the balance, in Yerevan there are riots and the destruction of government buildings. And what about Russia? Won? Lost? Maintained the status quo?

For experts in the field of international relations, which I am not, I can look at this question in a purely philistine way. Formally, Russia (and Putin) is a Transcaucasian peacemaker who has stopped bloodshed and even increased its military presence in the region. And the fact that the war stopped is really good. But how will this affect relations between Russia and Armenia? Even more resourceful Turkey (NATO member) stood behind the back of non-poor Azerbaijan, and who was behind Armenia? Armenia hoped that Russia was there and counted on its protection. Strictly speaking, she did not receive this protection. Although it can be assumed that if not for Russia, then Nagorno-Karabakh would have already belonged to Azerbaijan entirely, and not partially. I am not condemning the Russian leadership here, I personally would not want our country to get involved in another war. I am just stating a fact.

Of course, Russia will officially say that it acted exclusively as a peacemaker, helped the parties to agree and did not take any side. After all, both peoples are "fraternal" to us. But will the Armenians agree with this? A similar inhabitant in Armenia may ask the question: if Armenia lost the war, Azerbaijan won, and Russia helped to approve this result, then on whose side is it? Of course, now all the forces of Russian propaganda, led by (Armenian) Margarita Simonyan, will be used to explain to the Armenians that there is no need to be offended by Russia, and if not for her, then everything would be much worse.

But all the same there will be an offense. Someone thinks that for Russia relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey turned out to be more important than the support of the Armenian brothers. However, one must be completely naive to think that religious affiliation in such things can really play any role other than a purely political pretext. We are, after all, a multi-faith country, right? Muslims are our brothers too.

Even the Russian helicopter shot down by Azerbaijan at the wrong time did not prevent everyone from reaching an agreement. Azerbaijan apologized, Russia understood and forgave. It happens.

It is also important, I think, that for Vladimir Putin Ilham Aliyev and Recep Erdogan are more understandable and predictable partners than Nikol Pashinyan, who came on the wave of the revolution. The dictator sees the dictator from afar, so to speak.

And the sad conclusion from this story is that military solutions are still effective. After all, what happened if you don't go into details? Azerbaijan came and took by force what it considered to be rightfully its own. The world community did not prevent this. Who is strong is right. Putin, it seems, always thought so - and was once again convinced..."

For his part, journalist Pavel Pryanikov believes that the strengthening of Turkey's positions in the region will lead to even more sad consequences for our country:

“Armenia and Azerbaijan conclude peace on Karabakh with the mediation of Russia. Azerbaijan remains occupied territories, incl. Shusha. The Lachin corridor from Armenia to Karabakh is preserved. Russian peacekeepers stand on the contact line of fire. Armenia received an honorable defeat, since Azerbaijan was able, as we see, to recapture all of Karabakh within 1-2 months.

In fact, peace was concluded between Russia and Turkey - the curators of both conflicting sides. We will soon find out whether there were any concessions from Russia regarding Turkey - for example, over Syria and Libya (it is obvious that in this situation Turkey was distributing the cards, and she had trump cards).

It is also clear that no final point has been set on Karabakh. Turkey and Azerbaijan can revise the agreement at any time.

Most likely, Georgia will now join the alliance of Turkey and Azerbaijan, incl. and the military sphere. In general, the entire Turkic world both inside Russia and in Central Asia will be even more friendly to Turkey, which was able to show both military strength, and diplomacy, and the ability to build a strategic game. So not long before the Caspian Sea becomes Turkish.

PS

And separate notes in the margins. Armenia did not become a "second Israel" in the presence of a large and rich diaspora. Armenia's GDP per capita is $ 4-4.5 thousand, this is the level of Swaziland and Jordan. Billions of dollars of wealthy Armenians from Russia, USA, France, Lebanon, Brazil, etc. never flowed to their historical homeland (and even hundreds of millions of dollars). Even the current war for the most part has left indifferent the rich part of the Armenian diaspora, judging not by their words, but by their deeds..."