Get sick more often - die less often: the peak of the coronavirus pandemic has already occured

Network analyst Pavel Vishnevsky monitors the development of the pandemic in the world, armed with statistics and many graphs of morbidity and mortality in different countries of the world. Earlier, he predicted that the second, large peak in incidence would occur in the world around mid-November, and then the intensity would begin to fall and by the end of winter it would come to naught. True, the third wave will still rush in March-April next year, but this will be the last outbreak of coronavirus infection. Moreover, this process will proceed independently of the success of vaccination, the disease will go away by itself. Roughly the same was the case with the Spanish flu in the late 1910s.

The analyst happily reports that his forecast turned out to be correct: most countries, and especially European ones, are already going through a peak, and this has been happening since mid-November and is still right now.

For example, in France, there is a clear decline in the incidence, and it is clear that even in the absence of a vaccine, the disease is becoming less deadly. The same is true in Spain: the decrease in incidence per day since November and the peak in daytime deaths are less than in spring. And most importantly: people get sick more often, but die less often!

True, this trend, according to the author's observations, has not yet reached the east, even in the countries of Eastern Europe and Russia, the virus is still destructive. But this, according to Vishnevsky, is normal: Russia is lagging behind Europe by about one to one and a half weeks, and in the near future the peak will be passed.

In conclusion, the author writes that countries in which the number of deaths per day at the second peak in the fall shows divergence with the number of cases per day will get out of the pandemic faster and easier. But those who do not have such a tendency can get complications in the spring during the third wave.